The consequence thread (Brexit)

[L00b]

Obviously that's not literally true.

May asking for guarantees that extension of time will be granted, before she triggers Article 50, makes it absolutely 'literally true' that she's asking for a free lunch: basically, she's asking the EU member states to agree that the Article 50 TFEU 2 year period is meaningless.

 

I'll let you guess her chances

We want free trade, but not collective government. It is a fallacy to suggest that one cannot have one of these without the other.

If they want free trade and collective government, that's up to them. These are separate decisions.

Feel free to ask for all you want and more. In fact that's usually (and advisably) the opening position right at the start of negotiations. But that's not the sum total of 'negotiating'. By far. Because the EU will, most unsurprisingly, likewise ask all they want and more, expectedly little of which you/the UK would agree to. The 'negotiating' bit will be finding a happy compromise.

 

'My way or the highway' rarely ever gets things moving fast or smoothly. Meanwhile...tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc

[tzijlstra]

The only way May is getting an extension is by giving a major concession during the negotiations. That concession, based on the very predictable demand of the EU, will be that the UK remains in the single market.

 

Then the EU will instruct May on how she can enact policy that was already enacted in every other EU country but not here to limit migration. She will sell it as an EU-concession (which it won't be) and claim victory and trumpet about a 100K target again.

 

The people will be happy for a while until they discover, once the change in status has taken place, that migration is not coming down at all (provided the economy stays strong). By that time May will have a new political crisis on her hands, but hey, at least it is years from now and if she manages to extend past the upcoming general election of 2020 she might even get re-elected. Hurrah!

 

This politics 101 has been predicted for the past year by me. You are free to use it as you please.

[glennpickard]

Anna B:

 

I liked your attitude in your last post, #3983. If all the people in the UK, from government down to the workforce, would take on such an attitude, isolating the cynics and naysayers, the country would certainly thrive outside of the EU !!! Well done.

[ez8004]

It would be good to agree a provisional schedule. But in reality the 2 years is unlikely to be binding.

 

The two years is binding. It is written in the Lisbon Treaty. The reason it is two years and so difficult to get an extension is because we don't have a chance in hell in completing the negotiations in such a short period of time. So the default position would be to fall back on trading by WTO rules, which would be detrimental to the economy.

[Anna B]

Did anyone see the programme about the 80s? A bit hit and miss in its theorising for me. Footage of the poll tax riots though (which was the 90s but I think he wanted to conclude with the end of Thatcher).

 

If we don't leave will the riots be worse? What is worse than a riot? So far as I have read (which isn't a massive amount) the early 20th century General Strike had little effect and only lasted a few days.

 

If the Government decide we won't exit can the public realistically do anything? People have talked about it costing MPs their seats at elections. Will it? There is currently no effective opposition in Westminster.

 

Well the Poll tax riots got the Poll tax legislation changed, but then just about everyone was on the same side (no Poll tax) against the Conservative government.

 

With Brexit there are nearly as many people want to remain as leave.

[Cyclone]

The two years is binding. It is written in the Lisbon Treaty. The reason it is two years and so difficult to get an extension is because we don't have a chance in hell in completing the negotiations in such a short period of time. So the default position would be to fall back on trading by WTO rules, which would be detrimental to the economy.

 

2 years it the negotiation phase for exit, it can be extended by agreement though.

 

---------- Post added 19-08-2016 at 19:51 ----------

 

Anna B:

 

I liked your attitude in your last post, #3983. If all the people in the UK, from government down to the workforce, would take on such an attitude, isolating the cynics and naysayers, the country would certainly thrive outside of the EU !!! Well done.

 

If only we could isolate the global market place that we need to do business with as well. And those pesky foreigners we need to agree trade deals with us.

If we could isolate them, and force them to do what the wishful thinking leave idiots would like, then we'd thrive.

 

But we can't. So we won't (thrive that is).

[Anna B]

2 years it the negotiation phase for exit, it can be extended by agreement though.

 

---------- Post added 19-08-2016 at 19:51 ----------

 

 

If only we could isolate the global market place that we need to do business with as well. And those pesky foreigners we need to agree trade deals with us.

If we could isolate them, and force them to do what the wishful thinking leave idiots would like, then we'd thrive.

 

But we can't. So we won't (thrive that is).

 

I believe the EU is one of the worst for red tape and legislation around trade deals. They have to find agreement with 23 different countries for a start which leads to endless amendments and timewasting.

 

We may well find it much easier to deal with countries outside the EU, and they with us, once we are out of it.

[tzijlstra]

I believe the EU is one of the worst for red tape and legislation around trade deals. They have to find agreement with 23 different countries for a start which leads to endless amendments and timewasting.

 

We may well find it much easier to deal with countries outside the EU, and they with us, once we are out of it.

 

This is such a cliche. You do realise how the US works, right? 50 states and all that? The simple fact that London decides what happens in Skipton does not mean that model of government is better, or in fact reduces 'red tape'. The most efficient countries to do business are all, without exception, in the EU. But don't let that little fact stand in the way of a bit of EU bashing.

 

Edit - apologies, it is only 5 out of 10.

Edited August 20, 2016 by tzijlstra

[I1L2T3]

I believe the EU is one of the worst for red tape and legislation around trade deals. They have to find agreement with 23 different countries for a start which leads to endless amendments and timewasting.

 

We may well find it much easier to deal with countries outside the EU, and they with us, once we are out of it.

 

Ok Anna, when Liam Fox and Farage and the others bang on about doing trade deals (usually free trade deals) then take a step back, pause for a moment and think about what they really want.

 

Think about what their vision is. Just for a second. Then think about your friends and family.

 

I'm surprised you've been sucked into believing in their ideas.

[ez8004]

2 years it the negotiation phase for exit, it can be extended by agreement though.

 

Only if all exisiting member states agree. It just takes ONE to not have it extended. It would not be in their interest to rush it unlike us.