The consequence thread (Brexit)

[unbeliever]

I'm a scientist by trade. That means when people make predictions and those predictions are wrong, then their hypothesis is invalidated.

Modifying the predictions after the event and claiming victory regardless is not cricket. It means you're wrong and too stubborn to admit it.

 

This is nothing like jumping out of a plane. That's just silly. And I'm done waiting for yet one more set of data to come in.

 

I do not doubt your honesty. Although I doubt that of some of the sources you trust. But at some point you have to admit defeat.

[Obelix]

I'm a scientist by trade. That means when people make predictions and those predictions are wrong, then their hypothesis is invalidated.

Modifying the predictions after the event and claiming victory regardless is not cricket. It means you're wrong and too stubborn to admit it.

 

This is nothing like jumping out of a plane. That's just silly. And I'm done waiting for yet one more set of data to come in.

 

I do not doubt your honesty. Although I doubt that of some of the sources you trust. But at some point you have to admit defeat.

 

You will of course understand then that without data you cannot make any assertions.

 

A recession takes 6 months to occur. 2 successive negative quarters of growth. Has it been 6 months since the vote?

 

You don't get the figures until 3 months after the event. So that's 9 months before we know... has it been nine months since the event?

 

There are worrying signs already - QE, fall in the purchasing surveys, the fall against the dollar... none of these are good, but until we have more data there is nothing we can say either way.

 

As for you think it's over - you've decided to strip me of my citizenship against my will. Until I'm assured that isn't going to happen no way is this "all over"

[unbeliever]

You will of course understand then that without data you cannot make any assertions.

 

A recession takes 6 months to occur. 2 successive negative quarters of growth. Has it been 6 months since the vote?

 

You don't get the figures until 3 months after the event. So that's 9 months before we know... has it been nine months since the event?

 

There are worrying signs already - QE, fall in the purchasing surveys, the fall against the dollar... none of these are good, but until we have more data there is nothing we can say either way.

 

As for you think it's over - you've decided to strip me of my citizenship against my will. Until I'm assured that isn't going to happen no way is this "all over"

 

I'm sorry you don't get to be a European citizen. But there was no way you could be one unless I became one as well. I don't want to be one. And my side won.

 

There's more than enough data in to see that the forecast recession has not emerged.

Edited August 24, 2016 by unbeliever

[truman]

I'm sorry you don't get to be a European citizen. But there was no way you could be one unless I became one as well. I don't want to be one. And my side won.

 

Isn't that what Pyrrhus said?

[Obelix]

I'm sorry you don't get to be a European citizen. But there was no way you could be one unless I became one as well. I don't want to be one. And my side won.

 

You are basing your argument on a flawed first premise.

[I1L2T3]

Whatever the terms, whether or not it is in our interests to leave would is a matter of opinion. And the people have spoken.

I can't believe we're still talking about this.

It's over.

 

Far from over.

 

If the terms are clearly detrimental it would take a lunatic to push ahead with the inevitable political suicide for their party.

 

I can't believe you think there is nothing to discuss. We haven't even got started. The government has no plan and it has no expertise. All it has is a guidance point from 37% of the electorate, and a fair few of that 37% regret the way they voted.

 

Long way to go mate.

[Magilla]

I'm a scientist by trade. That means when people make predictions and those predictions are wrong, then their hypothesis is invalidated.

Modifying the predictions after the event and claiming victory regardless is not cricket. It means you're wrong and too stubborn to admit it.

 

Or new data arrives that makes you change your viewpoint.

 

This is nothing like jumping out of a plane. That's just silly. And I'm done waiting for yet one more set of data to come in.

 

It's a pretty good analogy actually, the data showing anything conclusive is a long way off, but what there has been so far isn't overly encouraging.

 

I do not doubt your honesty. Although I doubt that of some of the sources you trust. But at some point you have to admit defeat.

 

And I'll be happy to do so when the final fallout is known and I'm shown to be wrong. Will you?

[ez8004]

I'm sorry you don't get to be a European citizen. But there was no way you could be one unless I became one as well. I don't want to be one. And my side won.

 

There's more than enough data in to see that the forecast recession has not emerged.

 

There is a very long way to go and if you can't see that then you are deluded. It isn't a coincidence that May has stated Article 50 definitely won't happen this year. It is also no coincidence that she has refused to commit to a any date either.

 

There is also the high court challenge that needs to be heard on whether the PM can use her prerogative powers to do it. As it stands, the general consensus is that she can't as she needs to overturn existing legislation and you can't do that without legislation. So in effect, it needs to be put to a parliamentary vote and with over 70% of MPs supporting to remain, a done deal is far from certain. Not to mention, the House of Lords has already expressed its intentions to return any legislation on Article 50 back to the Commons to delay the triggering of the process. Yes, it is only a delaying tactic because the Commons can "eventually" bypass the Lords. However, unless it is done by 2018, Article 50 is unlikely to happen until after 2020 because of the pending EU elections.

 

Fundamentally, you fail to grasp that the referendum was no legal standing, none whatsoever. There is absolutely no legal basis for Parliament to act on the result, unlike the Alternative Vote Referendum.

[Magilla]

Far from over.

 

If the terms are clearly detrimental it would take a lunatic to push ahead with the inevitable political suicide for their party.

 

And the economic damage to the nation.

[unbeliever]

There is a very long way to go and if you can't see that then you are deluded. It isn't a coincidence that May has stated Article 50 definitely won't happen this year. It is also no coincidence that she has refused to commit to a any date either.

 

There is also the high court challenge that needs to be heard on whether the PM can use her prerogative powers to do it. As it stands, the general consensus is that she can't as she needs to overturn existing legislation and you can't do that without legislation. So in effect, it needs to be put to a parliamentary vote and with over 70% of MPs supporting to remain, a done deal is far from certain. Not to mention, the House of Lords has already expressed its intentions to return any legislation on Article 50 back to the Commons to delay the triggering of the process. Yes, it is only a delaying tactic because the Commons can "eventually" bypass the Lords. However, unless it is done by 2018, Article 50 is unlikely to happen until after 2020 because of the pending EU elections.

 

Fundamentally, you fail to grasp that the referendum was no legal standing, none whatsoever. There is absolutely no legal basis for Parliament to act on the result, unlike the Alternative Vote Referendum.

 

I'm well aware of the legal status of referenda under uk law. The political reality is what matters. We voted you lost. There will be much lawyering and posturing. That's normal. It's still over. Get used to it.