The consequence thread (Brexit)

[unbeliever]

the production and distribution chain can't and won't absorb the additional costs forever, one way or another they will be passed on to the consumer. Eventually, selling into our market becomes either unprofitable or not worth the effort and they will stop.

 

The manufacturers will, of course, be looking for new and more profitable markets to replace sales into the UK and the UK distribution network will be left to wither and possibly die.

 

As I pointed out earlier, the tariff on cars is 10% not 2%, that is a business damaging rate.

 

 

The tariff on complete cars is indeed 10%. We import a lot more cars from the EU than we export to the EU. So an EU business will either have to set up a plant in the UK or pay the tariffs. They're not going to like this, so they'll lobby their government not to impose tariffs on UK goods in exchange for allowing them to sell us cars tariff free.

You can't really think that it will be a disaster for the UK if of the wide choice of cars available in the UK, a subset manufactured in EU countries gets maybe 10% more expensive at most? Just buy one that's assembled in the UK, job done.

In any case, this is only going to be a thing of the EU are silly enough to either refuse a free trade deal or insist on an insanely complicated TTIP style excuse for a free trade deal that takes years to arrange.

Edited October 15, 2016 by unbeliever

[andyofborg]

The tariff on complete cars is indeed 10%. We import a lot more cars from the EU than we export to the EU. So an EU business will either have to set up a plant in the UK or pay the tariffs. They're not going to like this, so they'll lobby their government not to impose tariffs on UK goods in exchange for allowing them to sell us cars tariff free.

 

I'm sure they will lobby but there is no guarantee they will be successful and dont make the mistake of assuming that european businesses are less committed to the EU than ours are. Of course, applying tarrifs to imported british cars has the same effect as us applying tarrifs to theirs. They may take the view that the benefits of making it harder to sell uk cars in the eu outweighs the loss of their uk business.

 

opening uk factories serving the domestic market is a possibility but that brings us back to the availability of skilled workers etc.

[tinfoilhat]

no i'm not......

 

and we're going to have an extra £350 million a week spent on the NHS

 

 

 

there wont be any extra revenue from tariffs, if you go buy an imported car then you will be paying the tariff that means you either wont buy it because it's too expensive or you will have less money to spend on other things either way there will be no extra revenue.

 

 

 

a) the figure you quote is an average, some will be higher some will be lower. the commonly quoted figure for cars is 10%

 

b) if you are selling into a competitive market and/or have a very narrow margin then any increase is going to be damaging possibly fatal to a company.

 

Correct. Cars are 10%. If we go down WTO the car industry will go at a stroke. Or, we (the tax payer) will take up the slack. The head of Nissan had a meeting with the PM yesterday and I'll bet that was the gist of the conversation.

[Flexo]

Correct. Cars are 10%. If we go down WTO the car industry will go at a stroke. Or, we (the tax payer) will take up the slack. The head of Nissan had a meeting with the PM yesterday and I'll bet that was the gist of the conversation.

 

Nissan should go - Sunderland voted for that. We cannot be dictated to by the Japanese.

[Cyclone]

The tariff on complete cars is indeed 10%. We import a lot more cars from the EU than we export to the EU. So an EU business will either have to set up a plant in the UK or pay the tariffs. They're not going to like this, so they'll lobby their government not to impose tariffs on UK goods in exchange for allowing them to sell us cars tariff free.

You can't really think that it will be a disaster for the UK if of the wide choice of cars available in the UK, a subset manufactured in EU countries gets maybe 10% more expensive at most? Just buy one that's assembled in the UK, job done.

In any case, this is only going to be a thing of the EU are silly enough to either refuse a free trade deal or insist on an insanely complicated TTIP style excuse for a free trade deal that takes years to arrange.

 

Just checking out these numbers.

 

2015 - Europe wide registration of new motor vehicles, nearly 16 million.

UK 3 million

Rest of Europe 13 million

 

UK Production approx 1.5 million cars/year

Europe production 16 million/year

 

On balance, we import 1.5 million cars then. Out of a total of 16 million new car registrations a year throughout europe and 16 million manufactured.

 

So why will the european companies lobby to not have the tariff imposed?

We'll just find that cars from outside the UK go up in price by 10% (not to mention the 30% increase due to the £ crashing). The european manufacturers who don't already produce in the UK will sell a few less here, but we're <10% of the market.

 

Why do you imagine that the EU are desperate to make some kind of deal? It's a fallacy, sold by brexiters who still can't accept the truth that they are driving the country in a cliff face. It's a car crash, we can all see it happening. The £ is tanking, European leaders continue to repeat that there will be no special concessions or deals for us, in fact they seem to be somewhat inclined to punish us. We are in a weak bargaining position, we will be the considerably minor party in the negotiation, negotiating from a position of weakness. If we go ahead and leave the union then we are going to get badly burned on the way.

And all for what, some imaginary "freedom".

 

---------- Post added 15-10-2016 at 11:37 ----------

 

Nissan should go - Sunderland voted for that. We cannot be dictated to by the Japanese.

 

Yeah, we don't need those jobs. Why don't we just ask all the foreign companies to leave.

I really struggle to understand the thinking of a brexiter, it's like they have their head stuck entirely somewhere dark and can't think beyond a general dislike of foreigners.

[Flexo]

The tariff on complete cars is indeed 10%. We import a lot more cars from the EU than we export to the EU. So an EU business will either have to set up a plant in the UK or pay the tariffs. They're not going to like this, so they'll lobby their government not to impose tariffs on UK goods in exchange for allowing them to sell us cars tariff free.

 

The Germans might but the Spanish and French will welcome the competitive edge tariffs will bring their car industries.

 

---------- Post added 15-10-2016 at 11:42 ----------

 

Yeah, we don't need those jobs. Why don't we just ask all the foreign companies to leave.

 

The whole point of this is to stop being told what to do by foreigners.

[Litotes]

The tariff on complete cars is indeed 10%. We import a lot more cars from the EU than we export to the EU. So an EU business will either have to set up a plant in the UK or pay the tariffs. They're not going to like this, so they'll lobby their government not to impose tariffs on UK goods in exchange for allowing them to sell us cars tariff free.

You can't really think that it will be a disaster for the UK if of the wide choice of cars available in the UK, a subset manufactured in EU countries gets maybe 10% more expensive at most? Just buy one that's assembled in the UK, job done.

In any case, this is only going to be a thing of the EU are silly enough to either refuse a free trade deal or insist on an insanely complicated TTIP style excuse for a free trade deal that takes years to arrange.

 

No we won't because we will not have the economy to allow people to buy these cars.

Inflation is already beginning to rise which means that people will have less money to spend. Not that they will need cars as they won't have jobs to go to.

 

Our market (outside the single market) is not big enough to justify companies putting new plants into the UK soi they will continnue to assemble cars in the UK until that line become obsolete and then the new investment will go elsewhere.

We are already seeing that new investment isn't coming here...

[*_ash_*]

You voted leave then ash. May I ask why?

 

I wrote enough in the EU ref debate tin.

 

Just looking through it, everything is as I said so far. It showed all the remain lies too, things that have been brushed under the carpet because it's more fun to keep bringing the bus into it. Things like a vote for OUT is a vote for IDS Gove and BJ running the country. A vote for out will mean the end of the NHS. etc. A vote for OUT will mean every adult will be £4500 worse off - which though we aren't out yet before someone writes it, was later exposed as a lie.

 

Amusing this one

Possible outcomes:

1. Leave, things go wrong - all the people who voted out will be demonised

 

Probably the main reason, was based on my belief that the EU collapsing in the future (within 10 years). I predicted that the economy would suffer initially, and when it collapses the whole world will be in trouble. However, with a few years of independence from it will leave us better off than others. Also that we would fair better if we make a combined deal with the main EU countries (with similar economies to ours).

[Flexo]

a vote for OUT is a vote for IDS Gove and BJ running the country.

 

We do have the far right of the Tory party dominating politics at the moment.

 

A vote for out will mean the end of the NHS. etc.

 

Training places got cut substantially under the Tories so the NHS is very reliant on skills from abroad.

 

NHS heads were strongly in favour of remain. That's why Boris came up with the big fat lie about £350m a week for the NHS - he knew that the public want to protect the NHS so he had to spin a fantasy that was the opposite to reality and shout it loudly.

 

The "free trade" in services deals that the far right keep alluding to are anticipated to end the NHS as a public sector body. The reason is that free trade would require that services be provided by private companies, i.e. NHS privatisation.

 

A vote for OUT will mean every adult will be £4500 worse off - which though we aren't out yet before someone writes it, was later exposed as a lie.

 

It's about £800 a year off the income of the poorest. That adds up over the years.

 

Probably the main reason, was based on my belief that the EU collapsing in the future (within 10 years). I predicted that the economy would suffer initially, and when it collapses the whole world will be in trouble. However, with a few years of independence from it will leave us better off than others. Also that we would fair better if we make a combined deal with the main EU countries (with similar economies to ours).

 

The "leap in the dark based on a gut feeling".

 

Climate change will become severe from around 2050 and maybe we can easier limit the flows of migrants whose native lands are flooded or otherwise unliveable.

 

Or maybe we are better facing challenges together.

 

You can't do a "combined deal with the main EU countries" - the EU do deals as a block, not sub groups of countries.

[Cyclone]

The Germans might but the Spanish and French will welcome the competitive edge tariffs will bring their car industries.

 

---------- Post added 15-10-2016 at 11:42 ----------

 

 

The whole point of this is to stop being told what to do by foreigners.

 

You know what goes along with that. We have to stop telling the foreigners what to do. Well done. You can have complete sovereignty, straight into the economic disaster you've just created. Except you can't, because you actually want things from those foreigners, like trade, so you'll have to partially do what they tell you anyway, and once we're outside the club, we get no say in how the club runs, and we negotiate with the club from a massive disadvantageous position. But "sovereignty and freedom, init".