The consequence thread (Brexit)

[NigelFargate]

Just checking out these numbers.

 

2015 - Europe wide registration of new motor vehicles, nearly 16 million.

UK 3 million

Rest of Europe 13 million

 

UK Production approx 1.5 million cars/year

Europe production 16 million/year

 

On balance, we import 1.5 million cars then. Out of a total of 16 million new car registrations a year throughout europe and 16 million manufactured.

 

So why will the european companies lobby to not have the tariff imposed?

We'll just find that cars from outside the UK go up in price by 10% (not to mention the 30% increase due to the £ crashing). The european manufacturers who don't already produce in the UK will sell a few less here, but we're <10% of the market.

 

Why do you imagine that the EU are desperate to make some kind of deal? It's a fallacy, sold by brexiters who still can't accept the truth that they are driving the country in a cliff face. It's a car crash, we can all see it happening. The £ is tanking, European leaders continue to repeat that there will be no special concessions or deals for us, in fact they seem to be somewhat inclined to punish us. We are in a weak bargaining position, we will be the considerably minor party in the negotiation, negotiating from a position of weakness. If we go ahead and leave the union then we are going to get badly burned on the way.

And all for what, some imaginary "freedom".

 

---------- Post added 15-10-2016 at 11:37 ----------

 

 

Yeah, we don't need those jobs. Why don't we just ask all the foreign companies to leave.

I really struggle to understand the thinking of a brexiter, it's like they have their head stuck entirely somewhere dark and can't think beyond a general dislike of foreigners.

 

The statistics you reproduce above are highly misleading in the context of the Brexit debate because they take no account of the fact that the production and export of motor vehicles is highly concentrated in a few EU states and therefore that the impact of a so-called 'hard Brexit' will by no means be evenly distributed across the EU.

 

Germany is by far the biggest exporter of motor vehicles to the UK (which is in fact Germany's largest export market for cars). BMW minis are also exported in large volumes from the UK. It is not surprising therefore that German motor vehicle manufacturers would much prefer tariff free access of the kind which prevails whilst the UK remains in the Single European Market. However, failing this, the last thing that they would want would be the imposition of significant tariffs on the import or export of cars from or to the UK. Your central point therefore that the EU has far more leverage in the negotiations with regard to trade barriers for motor vehicles contains a serious flaw, because it is based on the assumption that the EU has a single interest, as do similar arguments which are based on the conflation of bald statistics and which take no account of the national interests of individual member states.

Edited October 15, 2016 by NigelFargate

[I1L2T3]

Hardly anyone voted for the Brexiteers to run the country, but, sadly, almost incredibly, that is actually what`s happening.....

I would agree that the UK leaving the EU may weaken it, but, unlike you, I think that`s a very bad thing, and even worse if it actually does break up.

 

The reason they are prominent in the government is because once again, just like when they called the referendum, the Tories are putting party before country.

 

Without prominent Brexiteers in positions of power the Tories would descend into open civil war overnight.

 

---------- Post added 15-10-2016 at 16:50 ----------

 

The statistics you reproduce above are highly misleading in the context of the Brexit debate because they take no account of the fact that the production and export of motor vehicles is highly concentrated in a few EU states and therefore that the impact of a so-called 'hard Brexit' will by no means be evenly distributed across the EU.

 

Germany is by far the biggest exporter of motor vehicles to the UK (which is in fact Germany's largest export market for cars). BMW minis are also exported in large volumes from the UK. It is not surprising therefore that German motor vehicle manufacturers would much prefer tariff free access of the kind which prevails whilst the UK remains in the Single European Market. However, failing this, the last thing that they would want would be the imposition of significant tariffs on the import or export of cars from or to the UK. Your central point therefore that the EU has far more leverage in the negotiations with regard to trade barriers for motor vehicles contains a serious flaw, because it is based on the assumption that the EU has a single interest, as do similar arguments which are based on the conflation of bald statistics and which take no account of the national interests of individual member states.

 

Everybody is arguing about cars.

 

Time to move on from that. Tell us how the trade deals the UK will get after Brexit will be better than the ones we have now. How long will they take to be active. What is the plan for the transition period. What will be the net cost/benefit to the country.

 

Actually....don't bother because you don't know.

[unbeliever]

 

Everybody is arguing about cars.

 

Time to move on from that. Tell us how the trade deals the UK will get after Brexit will be better than the ones we have now. How long will they take to be active. What is the plan for the transition period. What will be the net cost/benefit to the country.

 

Actually....don't bother because you don't know.

 

Worst case (in terms of trade barriers): WTO MFN which means the UK in net receipt of a rather large amount of tariff money. Also, no payments whatsoever to the EU netting the UK £10bn/year.

Average tariffs will be 2%, so if just 3c of the devaluation of sterling persists when the dust settles, the UK's exports to the EU are on average cheaper to EU consumers than they were before the referendum.

 

There will be winners and there will be losers. It's a disruptive thing we're undertaking here. But when the dust settles I can see no plausible scenario where the UK is worse off.

We've been subsidising the EU for decades. We're going to stop now. We're not the ones who should worry.

Edited October 15, 2016 by unbeliever

[tinfoilhat]

Worst case (in terms of trade barriers): WTO MFN which means the UK in net receipt of a rather large amount of tariff money. Also, no payments whatsoever to the EU netting the UK £10bn/year.

Average tariffs will be 2%, so if just 3c of the devaluation of sterling persists when the dust settles, the UK's exports to the EU are on average cheaper to EU consumers than they were before the referendum.

 

There will be winners and there will be losers. It's a disruptive thing we're undertaking here. But when the dust settles I can see no plausible scenario where the UK is worse off.

We've been subsidising the EU for decades. We're going to stop now. We're not the ones who should worry.

 

So no plausible scenario where the UK is worse off? Honestly? The biggest move of economic goalposts in 40 years (and god knows how long these negotiations will go on for, and a what cost) and you don't see one reason where it could all go wrong?

 

Do want some examples or shall I save myself the effort because you'll dismiss them out of hand?

[unbeliever]

So no plausible scenario where the UK is worse off? Honestly? The biggest move of economic goalposts in 40 years (and god knows how long these negotiations will go on for, and a what cost) and you don't see one reason where it could all go wrong?

 

Do want some examples or shall I save myself the effort because you'll dismiss them out of hand?

 

The worst case in terms of trade barriers is WTO MFN. This will be the state of affairs if trade negotiations fail or if they drag on beyond the 2 years exit period.

WTO MFN status means that the UK will be in net receipt of several billion pounds of tariff money and that's on top of the net return of £10bn in EU payments. That's all per year.

 

I presume your examples will refer to anecdotal or selective negative effects on specific economic activity. I did say that there would be losers as well as winners. The net effect on the UK economy long term can't really help but be positive.

[tinfoilhat]

The worst case in terms of trade barriers is WTO MFN. This will be the state of affairs if trade negotiations fail or if they drag on beyond the 2 years exit period.

WTO MFN status means that the UK will be in net receipt of several billion pounds of tariff money and that's on top of the net return of £10bn in EU payments. That's all per year.

 

I presume your examples will refer to anecdotal or selective negative effects on specific economic activity. I did say that there would be losers as well as winners. The net effect on the UK economy long term can't really help but be positive.

 

Well it's predictive so it's all going to be anecdotal and indeed selective, you wanted plausible not stone cold facts. But clearly the recent plummet of the value of sterling isn't good enough. Do you think the trade deals will last two years? I reckon a lot more. You've put a bottom figure of what sterling will based on..... I'm not really sure. Throw in inflation, most foreign car manufacturers leaving within a decade and maybe large swathes of the city of London if we're not getting access to the single market. None of this is remotely plausible?

 

Never heard the phrase you're not too big to go down?

 

But I'm feeling optimistic - what do you think will happen, give me some good news - feel free to be as selective and anecdotal as you like.

[unbeliever]

Well it's predictive so it's all going to be anecdotal and indeed selective, you wanted plausible not stone cold facts. But clearly the recent plummet of the value of sterling isn't good enough. Do you think the trade deals will last two years? I reckon a lot more. You've put a bottom figure of what sterling will based on..... I'm not really sure. Throw in inflation, most foreign car manufacturers leaving within a decade and maybe large swathes of the city of London if we're not getting access to the single market. None of this is remotely plausible?

 

Never heard the phrase you're not too big to go down?

 

But I'm feeling optimistic - what do you think will happen, give me some good news - feel free to be as selective and anecdotal as you like.

 

No it's not plausible. There's no reason to suppose, or even suspect, that any of these things you predict will come to pass.

You might as well say that the skies will fall as a result of Brexit.

[Santo]

Well it's predictive so it's all going to be anecdotal and indeed selective, you wanted plausible not stone cold facts. But clearly the recent plummet of the value of sterling isn't good enough. Do you think the trade deals will last two years? I reckon a lot more. You've put a bottom figure of what sterling will based on..... I'm not really sure. Throw in inflation, most foreign car manufacturers leaving within a decade and maybe large swathes of the city of London if we're not getting access to the single market. None of this is remotely plausible?

 

Never heard the phrase you're not too big to go down?

 

But I'm feeling optimistic - what do you think will happen, give me some good news - feel free to be as selective and anecdotal as you like.

 

Optimism: at the end of WW2 we were massively in debt, thousands and thousands were dead, cities were razed, manufacturing was pretty much dedicated to the war effort and the empire was crumbling. And we survived....

 

Can Brexit be anything like as bad as that??

[I1L2T3]

Worst case (in terms of trade barriers): WTO MFN which means the UK in net receipt of a rather large amount of tariff money. Also, no payments whatsoever to the EU netting the UK £10bn/year.

Average tariffs will be 2%, so if just 3c of the devaluation of sterling persists when the dust settles, the UK's exports to the EU are on average cheaper to EU consumers than they were before the referendum.

 

There will be winners and there will be losers. It's a disruptive thing we're undertaking here. But when the dust settles I can see no plausible scenario where the UK is worse off.

We've been subsidising the EU for decades. We're going to stop now. We're not the ones who should worry.

 

You know very well that the dust will take 10 or maybe 20 years to settle.

 

Who will be the winners and losers? Can you provide a list so there is some warning for the people who are going to suffer?

 

Subsidising the EU? Our contribution is 0.5% of our GDP. We get half of that back more or less. These arguments seriously need some perspective.

 

---------- Post added 15-10-2016 at 18:20 ----------

 

No it's not plausible. There's no reason to suppose, or even suspect, that any of these things you predict will come to pass.

You might as well say that the skies will fall as a result of Brexit.

 

The markets are telling us everything we need to know, and this is just the start.

 

Take the blinkers off.

 

---------- Post added 15-10-2016 at 18:21 ----------

 

Totally agree with you. Those thousands of job losses should happen as they pay the consequences for their actions for voting to leave.

 

Mark Carney estimated that without the emergency measures taken by the BoE on June 24th 400,00 jobs were at risk.

[unbeliever]

You know very well that the dust will take 10 or maybe 20 years to settle.

 

Who will be the winners and losers? Can you provide a list so there is some warning for the people who are going to suffer?

 

Subsidising the EU? Our contribution is 0.5% of our GDP. We get half of that back more or less. These arguments seriously need some perspective.

 

So we're just been giving away 0.25% of GDP. For what? We operate a trade deficit with the EU. We've been paying them 10 billion pounds per year net so that they can sell stuff to us.

Business that the UK gets, such as it is, which is specifically sited in the UK because it's inside the "single market" may well be lost. This will be dwarfed by businesses moving to the UK in order to access the UK market. The effect is small as the best place to go if you want to access the single market is Ireland with its stupidly low corporation tax, or the newer members where wages are lower.

 

---------- Post added 15-10-2016 at 18:26 ----------

 

 

The markets are telling us everything we need to know, and this is just the start.

 

Take the blinkers off.

 

Currency speculation was expected by both sides, will be short term, and is not an immediate problem (quite the reverse if you're an exporter in the UK).

 

 

Mark Carney estimated that without the emergency measures taken by the BoE on June 24th 400,00 jobs were at risk.

 

Well it's his job and he'll have to stand on his record if there are no deflationary pressures to absorb his QE and he starts missing his inflation target.

Edited October 15, 2016 by unbeliever