chalga Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 A substantial subset of the public (in the form of the Conservative party membership) will indeed be deciding it. What percentage of the public will that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 (edited) It depends how much these odds are due to expectation of the result, and how much is due to betting patterns. If a lot of money has been placed on Gove, then his odds will shorten. Although as Gove has only just thrown his hat in the ring, it is more likely that it is the bookie's first guess until the market drives the odds one way ornthe other. However, IMO, it is more likely that Paddy Power want to keep their name in the public eye and went in with short odds. Okay thanks. I did think I was being naive just converting the odds to probabilities. ---------- Post added 30-06-2016 at 11:18 ---------- What percentage of the public will that be? There's about 150,000 of them. I have no idea how they break down into Leave/Remain. Perhaps somebody else does. Edit: Okay I found it. A strong majority for Leave: http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/02/conhome-survey-two-thirds-of-party-members-say-they-will-vote-to-leave-the-eu-but-theres-hope-for-remain.html Simplistically that would imply that if theres one Remainer and one Brexiteer emerging from the parliamentary party voting, then you would expect the Brexiteer to get it. Edited June 30, 2016 by unbeliever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chalga Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Okay thanks. I did think I was being naive just converting the odds to probabilities. ---------- Post added 30-06-2016 at 11:18 ---------- There's about 150,000 of them. I have no idea how they break down into Leave/Remain. Perhaps somebody else does. Edit: Okay I found it. A strong majority for Leave: http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/02/conhome-survey-two-thirds-of-party-members-say-they-will-vote-to-leave-the-eu-but-theres-hope-for-remain.html Simplistically that would imply that if theres one Remainer and one Brexiteer emerging from the parliamentary party voting, then you would expect the Brexiteer to get it. Good money to be made then,the odds are in favour of a remainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Good money to be made then,the odds are in favour of a remainer. I think that's because with Boris, Fox and Gove, the leave field is more split. Once it's down to one of those, the odds will look a lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chalga Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Andy Bell ✔ @andybell5news Just watched Dominic Raab backing Michael Gove while reading his Sun article backing Boris #ToryLeadership 12:55 PM - 30 Jun 2016:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Andy Bell ✔ @andybell5news Just watched Dominic Raab backing Michael Gove while reading his Sun article backing Boris #ToryLeadership 12:55 PM - 30 Jun 2016:D Sounds right. Boris never had any meaningful support in the parliamentary party. Gove's endorsement was getting that for him. They'll switch en-masse to Gove now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Luthor Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 I think that's because with Boris, Fox and Gove, the leave field is more split. Once it's down to one of those, the odds will look a lot different. Don't forget Leadsom, hasn't she thrown her hat in to the ring this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Don't forget Leadsom, hasn't she thrown her hat in to the ring this morning? I think I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Luthor Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 I think I will. I can't say I'm familiar with her but my neighbour was pleased at the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eater Sundae Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Not Boris, then. Jumped before being pushed to one side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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