Gove drops support for Boris and decides to stand!

[unbeliever]

I see May as being more centrist within the party, and better seen in terms of building bridges. Although, conversely, she hasn't shown much leadership recently, by keeping quiet.

 

Also, Gove is probably seen as being more of an electoral liability, because of lack of "screen appeal" and charisma. And also because of some right wing ideas which might be a bit too far to the right for the electorate at large, and may therefore put off some of the party faithful from voting for him. Although he clearly is an astute politician.

 

But who knows. Over the last few weeks, predictions and betting odds have stood for nothing.

 

With Labour in a complete shambles and still (sort of) led by Corbyn, there's no great incentive for the party to pick a moderate that they barely agree with.

First ballot of the parliamentary party will be on Tuesday. But there may be some candidates withdrawing before then.

May's best bet is to see Gove eliminated by the PP vote and 2 remainers put forward to the full party.

 

---------- Post added 30-06-2016 at 12:26 ----------

 

May has publicly ruled out a second referendum and also ruled out a prompt general election. That being the case, I probably don't mind if she beats Gove.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-rules-our-early-general-election-or-second-eu-referendum-if-she-becomes-conservative-a7110656.html

She's also previously said we should withdraw from the ECHR. Which is a bit nutty, but I doubt she'll actually try it. But still she's hardly a europhile. If you read her various writings on the subject, she was just barely in the remain camp anyway.

Edited June 30, 2016 by unbeliever

[tzijlstra]

May was told to stay out of the debate pre-referendum and not be tainted by any of the brown stuff being peddled on both sides in the Tory camp. She played a blinder (in what is probably the easiest role ).

 

For me, either is a bad choice, I wouldn't have minded Boris because he would have been dumb enough to go full EEA and then be forced to fall on his sword as a consequence. At least he would have had his moment. I genuinely think that was the scenario Cameron had in mind, just in case. But as these things go, the average voter and, as it stands now, even the Tory party-members are completely frozen out of the Westminster scheming.

[unbeliever]

May was told to stay out of the debate pre-referendum and not be tainted by any of the brown stuff being peddled on both sides in the Tory camp. She played a blinder (in what is probably the easiest role ).

 

For me, either is a bad choice, I wouldn't have minded Boris because he would have been dumb enough to go full EEA and then be forced to fall on his sword as a consequence. At least he would have had his moment. I genuinely think that was the scenario Cameron had in mind, just in case. But as these things go, the average voter and, as it stands now, even the Tory party-members are completely frozen out of the Westminster scheming.

 

My worry was that Boris would have tried to negotiate himself rather than leaving it to people who actually know what they're doing. I think he could have managed to arranged for us lose our voting rights, pay more in, get less out, obey yet more regulations and all have the words "There is only one Europe" tattooed on our faces.

[truman]

My worry was that Boris would have tried to negotiate himself rather than leaving it to people who actually know what they're doing. I think he could have managed to arranged for us lose our voting rights, pay more in, get less out, obey yet more regulations and all have the words "There is only one Europe" tattooed on our faces.

 

Who's that going to be? Genuine question..

[unbeliever]

Who's that going to be? Genuine question..

 

Gove, Fox, Gisele Stewart, maybe IDS if he holds his bottle, and ideally Frank Field, Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Redwood. They might also take Carswell.

Edited June 30, 2016 by unbeliever

[tzijlstra]

Gove, Fox, Gisele Stewart, maybe IDS if he holds his bottle, and ideally Frank Field, Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Redwood. They might also take Carswell.

 

Or it is in actual fact going to be professional bureaucrats, you know, the people that people complain about because they haven't been elected

 

As an ex-UK great diplomat to the EU stated - good luck UK, you have about 12-20 of those, the EU has 500 and the US a thousand. Sour grapes, I know, but the reality is that a lot of this is going to be dealt with by anonymous suits.

[unbeliever]

Or it is in actual fact going to be professional bureaucrats, you know, the people that people complain about because they haven't been elected

 

As an ex-UK great diplomat to the EU stated - good luck UK, you have about 12-20 of those, the EU has 500 and the US a thousand. Sour grapes, I know, but the reality is that a lot of this is going to be dealt with by anonymous suits.

 

I don't doubt that the civil servants will do much of the paperwork, but surely the meat of the deal is to be agreed with the council.

[tzijlstra]

I don't doubt that the civil servants will do much of the paperwork, but surely the meat of the deal is to be agreed with the council's bureaucrats.

 

I added an underlined part From my limited time in politics (and this is very limited, to a very small local branch) the reality is that the civil servants trigger quite a lot of discussion points for the politicians, rather than vice versa. This is simply due to the need for subject experts to be involved due to the complexity. So a civil servant with responsibility for, for example, the CE regulation (as I talked about that yesterday with Euroout23) will point out that point X and Y really do need clarity because it might invalidate the agreement.

 

On broad lines, yes, the politicians will set the agenda, but those broad lines all consist of relatively minute and obscure consequences that need to be covered. So if Gove/May/Person X goes in and says - we don't want free movement of labour. Than civil servants will have to work out what that actually means.

 

On a relatively related side note - I just saw a replay of Johnson's speech and, to me, he seemed happier doing that, than he has looked for ages. I don't think he was pushed, I think earlier theories that he genuinely didn't think he would win, got the poisoned chalice from Cameron and balked at it, are pretty accurate.

[euroout23]

i reckon Boris has played a bit of a curved ball here, he knows who ever takes over now is going to get an extremely rough ride from all angles including their own party, whoever takes over will take all the flak, which ever way they play it ? it will be extremely difficult to play a party line that appeases people.

then when they are ousted for what ever reason, even a general election, then we will see Boris Johnson come along as the great statesman he is and take office? ..maybe

[ANGELFIRE1]

Rats in a barrel.

 

Angel1.