Who will replace Labour as the main "progressive" voice in parliament?

[tinfoilhat]

What?!?

 

The party will vote Labour anyway. What about the other 45 million electors?

640,000/45,000,000=1.4%

 

But those 640,000 (all of them) want labour to win don't they? If you are bringing in the full 45 million voters bear in mind how many don't vote. Currently.

[unbeliever]

But those 640,000 (all of them) want labour to win don't they? If you are bringing in the full 45 million voters bear in mind how many don't vote. Currently.

 

Okay, 66% turnout in the last GE.

 

640,000/(45,000,000x0.66)=2.2%

[Santo]

Okay, 66% turnout in the last GE.

 

640,000/(45,000,000x0.66)=2.2%

 

You could tie a red rosette to a donkey in Oldham and the people would vote for it....so said a chap on Question Time once.

 

I think it's safe to say Labour will get several million votes in 2020.

[tinfoilhat]

You could tie a red rosette to a donkey in Oldham and the people would vote for it....so said a chap on Question Time once.

 

I think it's safe to say Labour will get several million votes in 2020.

 

I think there are a lot more places than Oldham where that happens.

[Santo]

I think there are a lot more places than Oldham where that happens.

 

Yes, and it's true of some Tory seats as well.

 

I won't predict the outcome of the 2020 GE. I predicted the referendum outcome and was spot on number wise, but the wrong way round...

[pacifica]

I think there are a lot more places than Oldham where that happens.

 

I'm sure there are but isn't the trick when in opposition to take seats off the party of government, not to celebrate hanging on to 60% of the ones that you already have?

[Robin-H]

You could tie a red rosette to a donkey in Oldham and the people would vote for it....so said a chap on Question Time once.

 

I think it's safe to say Labour will get several million votes in 2020.

 

Oh yes of course they will, as you and others have said some people will vote Labour (or Tory) no matter what, but getting anything less than 8 million votes would be an absolute disaster for Labour.

[pacifica]

Yes, and it's true of some Tory seats as well.

 

I won't predict the outcome of the 2020 GE. I predicted the referendum outcome and was spot on number wise, but the wrong way round...

 

Currently electoral calculus calculate the tories would increase their majority to 100 based on average of all recent polls. They further calculate that they would increase that by 22 if the boundaries are revised. 122 is quite some majority in a 600 seat parliament. when you consider the SNP will have 50 odd. Knock off about 30 for Plaid, Northern Ireland, UKIP, Greens, Independents and Libdems and it doesn't leave much for corbin to console his followers.

[tinfoilhat]

I'm sure there are but isn't the trick when in opposition to take seats off the party of government, not to celebrate hanging on to 60% of the ones that you already have?

 

True enough. I found this http://www.libdemvoice.org/29-of-seats-have-not-changed-hands-since-1945-16029.html

 

I'm surprised only 29% of seats haven't changed hands since the war.

[Santo]

Currently electoral calculus calculate the tories would increase their majority to 100 based on average of all recent polls. They further calculate that they would increase that by 22 if the boundaries are revised. 122 is quite some majority in a 600 seat parliament. when you consider the SNP will have 50 odd. Knock off about 30 for Plaid, Northern Ireland, UKIP, Greens, Independents and Libdems and it doesn't leave much for corbin to console his followers.

 

I'm not convinced the boundaries will be changed before 2020.

 

I can't see the Tories losing. But Labour will be in opposition still. Whether Corbyn stays on after that remains to be seen.

 

But, what happens after Corbyn wins this leadership race could prove interesting.