Who will replace Labour as the main "progressive" voice in parliament?

[unbeliever]

I'm not convinced the boundaries will be changed before 2020.

 

I can't see the Tories losing. But Labour will be in opposition still. Whether Corbyn stays on after that remains to be seen.

 

But, what happens after Corbyn wins this leadership race could prove interesting.

 

Labour will not be in opposition if (as looks extremely likely) the parliamentary party splits and there is no single grouping larger than the SNP.

[Santo]

Labour will not be in opposition if (as looks extremely likely) the parliamentary party splits and there is no single grouping larger than the SNP.

 

I don't think it will split. 'Labour' (the name of the party) is too valuable. They will stay together unhappily under Corbyn until he retires. By then they will have lost an election and agree the Marxist experiment has failed.

[unbeliever]

I don't think it will split. 'Labour' (the name of the party) is too valuable. They will stay together unhappily under Corbyn until he retires. By then they will have lost an election and agree the Marxist experiment has failed.

 

Really? Even those who are very confident of losing their seats at the 2020 GE under his leadership?

 

I think a moderate-socialist alliance of say the SNP, Lib Dems and Labour defectors would be rather appealing. For every voter who always votes Labour, there is one who would never do so.

I'm thinking of names now. How about "The Progressive Alliance".

Edited September 19, 2016 by unbeliever

[pacifica]

I'm not convinced the boundaries will be changed before 2020.

 

I can't see the Tories losing. But Labour will be in opposition still. Whether Corbyn stays on after that remains to be seen.

 

But, what happens after Corbyn wins this leadership race could prove interesting.

 

I can't think of any reason why the boundaries wouldn't change as it was in Cameron's manifesto. The tories have a majority and in NI the changes favour the unionists. It would take a party revolt amongst tories for it not to go ahead.

It seems there is a deal on offer. Around 30/40 tory mps are set to retire at the 2020 election. Many of them have very safe seats indeed. Any tory mp who might lose a seat is to be offered a safe seat elsewhere. Mind you with the polls the way they are the new tory candidates for the other combined seats stand a good chance of winning one of those as well.

So why would any tory defy the whip on this matter? To do so would probably mean you weren't offered a seat when the changes go through.

Labour MPs must be hoping that corbin fails to win a seat because losing an election isn't likely to make him step aside in favour of a sane candidate.

Corbin is a shoe in for the labour leadership. After that it will be momentum against labour MPs. The smart money is on a mass defection to the Co-operative Labour Party and corbin banging his head against a brick wall for 3 years trying to get them to follow him through the lobbies.

.

Edited September 19, 2016 by pacifica

[unbeliever]

I can't think of any reason why the boundaries wouldn't change as it was in Cameron's manifesto. The tories have a majority and in NI the changes favour the unionists. It would take a party revolt amongst tories for it not to go ahead.

It seems there is a deal on offer. Around 30/40 tory mps are set to retire at the 2020 election. Many of them have very safe seats indeed. Any tory mp who might lose a seat is to be offered a safe seat elsewhere. Mind you with the polls the way they are the new tory candidates for the other combined seats stand a good chance of winning one of those as well.

So why would any tory defy the whip on this matter? To do so would probably mean you weren't offered a seat when the changes go through.

Labour MPs must be hoping that corbin fails to win a seat because losing an election isn't likely to make him step aside in favour of a sane candidate.

 

What he said ^^^.

Also, all the Conservative MPs ran on the manifesto which contained this promise. They don't have a mandate to vote against it.

[Santo]

Really? Even those who are very confident of losing their seats at the 2020 GE under his leadership?

 

No I don't think they will split. I might be wrong.

 

I think it makes sense to but I don't think they will.

 

---------- Post added 19-09-2016 at 15:40 ----------

 

What he said ^^^.

Also, all the Conservative MPs ran on the manifesto which contained this promise. They don't have a mandate to vote against it.

 

On News Night it was claimed just 6 Tory rebels could block it. That's not many at all so I don't think it's certain to happen.

[unbeliever]

 

On News Night it was claimed just 6 Tory rebels could block it. That's not many at all so I don't think it's certain to happen.

 

This is true, but misleading.

The 6 rebels would have to vote against. They'd be more likely to abstain in some deniable fashion in a situation like this as they'd otherwise be going directly against an election manifesto promise and there's no plausible justification for them to use. So it would in fact take 12.

Every vote from the opposition benches for the government, e.g. from the Unionists, means another Conservative rebel is needed.

 

There is a good majority for this change in parliament. It'll pass.

The only risk would be if the Lords try to block it and the government don't have the patience to push it through. That's a lengthy process and they may have something more urgent to to with the time.

[alchresearch]

Really? Even those who are very confident of losing their seats at the 2020 GE under his leadership?

 

This is the interesting thing - will those MPs who don't like him suddenly kowtow under him, knowing they could be deselected and a pro-Corbyn replacement parachuted in to replace them?

 

In Wallasey the locals want rid of Angela Eagle.

[Santo]

This is the interesting thing - will those MPs who don't like him suddenly kowtow under him, knowing they could be deselected and a pro-Corbyn replacement parachuted in to replace them?

 

In Wallasey the locals want rid of Angela Eagle.

 

Do they? Or is that just Momentum locals? I thought she'd been a popular MP there since the early 90s?

[pacifica]

 

In Wallasey the locals want rid of Angela Eagle.

 

I doubt that very much. I think the reality is half a dozen momentum activists want to get rid of Angela Eagle. The 26,176 who voted for her in the general election are likely to be very happy with their mp who was one of the few labour mps to increase their majority in 2015.