Who will replace Labour as the main "progressive" voice in parliament?

[pacifica]

There is a major problem here. In thatcher's day you needed 40% plus of the vote to win an election because an opposition on 30-35% could muster 250 seats.

Times have changed. UKIP picked up 34% of the numbers voting tory and yet only picked up 1 seat whilst the tories picked up 331.

The tories won 331 seat and got an overall majority on just 36.9% of the vote. Ukip got one seat with 12.6%.

Here's the problem. If/when labour fragment their vote will be spread rather thinly amongst opposition parties. A party picking up 15-20% of the vote will be nowhere.

If labour, breakaway labour, libdems, ukip all pick up between 10 and 20% of the vote the tories could romp to a huge majority with under 35% of the vote. There is no opposition. The SNP could end up as the 2nd party of british politics and claim to be the opposition having secured under 1,500,000 votes.

[Obelix]

We seem to have rather done to death "The end of the Labour party"

 

It's clear to me now (perhaps not so much to others but allowing for that) that Labour is in the process of being destroyed or at least devastatingly crippled by Corbyn/Momentum.

 

I don't think that parliament will be left without a strong socialist/liberal/progressive voice for long so the question becomes that in the title.

 

I can see 4 reasonable choices:

1) The break-away group of Labour MPs which now seems all but certain.

2) The SNP (they'd have to expand their remit of course but why not?)

3) The Lib Dems (they're still weak from the 2015 GE, but they're at least cohesive)

4) An alliance/merger between 2 or more of these groups.

 

I considered putting these in a poll, but as we're only allowed one per thread I would like to see first if this discussion goes anywhere and where it goes.

 

Moderators: This is honestly a distinct question to the end of Labour and an attempt to move a stagnated debate forward. Please, please don't casually delete it without explanation.

 

SDP/Liberal Alliance mark 2? It's happened before when Labour imploded... again due to a bit of hard left entryism from Militant....

Edited September 15, 2016 by Obelix

[unbeliever]

There is a major problem here. In thatcher's day you needed 40% plus of the vote to win an election because an opposition on 30-35% could muster 250 seats.

Times have changed. UKIP picked up 34% of the numbers voting tory and yet only picked up 1 seat whilst the tories picked up 331.

The tories won 331 seat and got an overall majority on just 36.9% of the vote. Ukip got one seat with 12.6%.

Here's the problem. If/when labour fragment their vote will be spread rather thinly amongst opposition parties. A party picking up 15-20% of the vote will be nowhere.

If labour, breakaway labour, libdems, ukip all pick up between 10 and 20% of the vote the tories could romp to a huge majority with under 35% of the vote. There is no opposition. The SNP could end up as the 2nd party of british politics and claim to be the opposition having secured under 1,500,000 votes.

 

If Labour break-away, the Lib Dems and the SNP work together and successfully make the case to the people that they are the "true" Labour successors, then they should be able to mop up 70-80% of the anti-Conservative vote.

 

---------- Post added 15-09-2016 at 13:53 ----------

 

SDP/Liberal Alliance mark 2? It's happened before when Labour imploded...

 

It did. But there were only 4 break-away Labour MPs forming the SDP. This time I'd expect well over half the Labour PP.

[pacifica]

 

It did. But there were only 4 break-away Labour MPs forming the SDP. This time I'd expect well over half the Labour PP.

 

I thought it was 28

 

 

 

Tom Bradley (Leicester East)

Ronald Brown (Hackney South and Shoreditch)

John Cartwright (Woolwich East)

Richard Crawshaw (Liverpool Toxteth)

George Cunningham (Islington South and Finsbury)

Bruce Douglas-Mann (Mitcham and Morden, resigned his seat and lost the ensuing by-election)

James Dunn (Liverpool Kirkdale)

Tom Ellis (Wrexham)

David Ginsburg (Dewsbury)

John Grant (Islington Central)

John Horam (Gateshead West)

Ednyfed Hudson Davies (Caerphilly)

Edward Lyons (Bradford West)

Dr Dickson Mabon (Greenock and Port Glasgow)

Bryan Magee (Leyton)

Robert Maclennan (Caithness and Sutherland)

Tom McNally (Stockport South)

Bob Mitchell (Southampton Itchen)

Eric Ogden (Liverpool West Derby)

Michael O'Halloran (Islington North)

David Owen (Plymouth Devonport)

William Rodgers (Stockton-on-Tees)

John Roper (Farnworth)

Neville Sandelson (Hayes and Harlington)

Jeffrey Thomas (Abertillery)

Mike Thomas (Newcastle East)

James Wellbeloved (Erith and Crayford)

Ian Wrigglesworth (Thornaby)

[Obelix]

Theres a lot more than 28 voted against Corbyn in the no confidence motion...

 

I'd expect a large number certainly above 28 to consider breaking away, and as soon as there are some that will go more will follow. the 1980's showed how easy it can be to have modest success, and with a lot more established people moving I'd expect the success of a breakaway party to be much higher - and more likely.

 

Along with Brexit these are as the "Chinese curse" says, Interesting Times.

[unbeliever]

I thought it was 28

 

 

 

Tom Bradley (Leicester East)

Ronald Brown (Hackney South and Shoreditch)

John Cartwright (Woolwich East)

Richard Crawshaw (Liverpool Toxteth)

George Cunningham (Islington South and Finsbury)

Bruce Douglas-Mann (Mitcham and Morden, resigned his seat and lost the ensuing by-election)

James Dunn (Liverpool Kirkdale)

Tom Ellis (Wrexham)

David Ginsburg (Dewsbury)

John Grant (Islington Central)

John Horam (Gateshead West)

Ednyfed Hudson Davies (Caerphilly)

Edward Lyons (Bradford West)

Dr Dickson Mabon (Greenock and Port Glasgow)

Bryan Magee (Leyton)

Robert Maclennan (Caithness and Sutherland)

Tom McNally (Stockport South)

Bob Mitchell (Southampton Itchen)

Eric Ogden (Liverpool West Derby)

Michael O'Halloran (Islington North)

David Owen (Plymouth Devonport)

William Rodgers (Stockton-on-Tees)

John Roper (Farnworth)

Neville Sandelson (Hayes and Harlington)

Jeffrey Thomas (Abertillery)

Mike Thomas (Newcastle East)

James Wellbeloved (Erith and Crayford)

Ian Wrigglesworth (Thornaby)

 

My bad. I thought they joined the infamous "gang of 4" later, but you're right they were there from the outset.

 

---------- Post added 15-09-2016 at 14:06 ----------

 

Theres a lot more than 28 voted against Corbyn in the no confidence motion...

 

I'd expect a large number certainly above 28 to consider breaking away, and as soon as there are some that will go more will follow. the 1980's showed how easy it can be to have modest success, and with a lot more established people moving I'd expect the success of a breakaway party to be much higher - and more likely.

 

 

Agree completely.

[S1 1DJ]

We seem to have rather done to death "The end of the Labour party"

 

It's clear to me now (perhaps not so much to others but allowing for that) that Labour is in the process of being destroyed or at least devastatingly crippled by Corbyn/Momentum.

 

I don't think that parliament will be left without a strong socialist/liberal/progressive voice for long so the question becomes that in the title.

 

I can see 4 reasonable choices:

1) The break-away group of Labour MPs which now seems all but certain.

2) The SNP (they'd have to expand their remit of course but why not?)

3) The Lib Dems (they're still weak from the 2015 GE, but they're at least cohesive)

4) An alliance/merger between 2 or more of these groups.

 

I considered putting these in a poll, but as we're only allowed one per thread I would like to see first if this discussion goes anywhere and where it goes.

 

Moderators: This is honestly a distinct question to the end of Labour and an attempt to move a stagnated debate forward. Please, please don't casually delete it without explanation.

 

Think we can only speculate and the proof in the pudding will be at the ballot box. The thread will just run in people's bias and those who bother to participate.

[unbeliever]

Think we can only speculate and the proof in the pudding will be at the ballot box. The thread will just run in people's bias and those who bother to participate.

 

Surely that's an argument against the discussion of party politics in general.

[S1 1DJ]

Looking at the huge swing in the latest by-election, I would say the Lib Dems are in the ascension.

 

You're just talking of the Mosborough by-election. Hardly a national trend.

Edited September 15, 2016 by S1 1DJ

[pacifica]

Theres a lot more than 28 voted against Corbyn in the no confidence motion...

 

I'd expect a large number certainly above 28 to consider breaking away, and as soon as there are some that will go more will follow. the 1980's showed how easy it can be to have modest success, and with a lot more established people moving I'd expect the success of a breakaway party to be much higher - and more likely.

 

Along with Brexit these are as the "Chinese curse" says, Interesting Times.

 

There would certainly be no shortage of funding and I doubt that immediate electoral success is a priority. Labour mps already know that they aren't going to be in government until 2025 at the earliest. A handfull of mps defecting would make that even more certain. So once a few have made the leap the electoral prospects of those remaining evapourate. Add to that the very real threat of deselection if you remain, I would say that there will be at least 50 who jump ship. Then with boundary changes coming around there will be more who are told that they won't be a labour candidate in 2020. I'd expect most of them to jump too. The only question is which whip will they follow?