Trump / Clinton 2nd Presidential Debate

[mafya]

Actually I'd agree in this case. I listened to a bit of QT extra time on 5live last night. They had two eloquent remainers on and some ill informed old halfwit defending brexit who needed everything explaining to him then ignored it anyway. They could have found someone better to fight that corner - unbeliever for example would have done a far better job than the gobfrother they wheeled out. A balanced argument/fair fight it wasn't.

 

My bold=

Eloquent remainers are a rarity, most remainers are at the bitter and twisted stage.

Some remainers have resorted to ageism= http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/after-the-referendum-the-ugly-scourge-of-ageism/18499#.WArBK-t4WrU

[blake]

Even the pundits are saying it's too close to call. .

 

this one is just a total ignoramus. 'Too close to call?'

 

For months and months and months, all the major American politics websites like fivethirtyeight.com and realclearpolitics.com etc have been predicting a steady probability of about an 85% chance that Clinton is going to win. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

it hasn't got down below an 80% chance, that Clinton is going to win, at any point. In a two-horse race, that is a massive difference.

 

this one is going to be the most one-sided result, since 1984.

 

in fact for the Republicans it's probably going to be worse than that. Clinton's going to win by a convincing margin, but that's irrelevant really, because when it's the presidency, it doesn't matter if you win by 1 electoral college vote or by 200. The winner gets to be president, and with exactly the same powers regardless.

 

but the presidency isn't the only election that is taking place in less than 2 weeks time. There's elections for the House and the Senate on the same day too.

 

because Trump is such a liability for the Republicans, he's stained their brand, and it looks like they are going to lose, not just the presidential election, but the Senate as well and they might even lose the House too. If that happens, then it will be the most disastrous election result for the Republicans ever.

 

the British political figure that Trump is most like, is Jeremy Corbyn, who has similarly flushed a major political party straight down the toilet and into the wilderness exactly the same way as Trump has his.

 

---------- Post added 22-10-2016 at 07:17 ----------

 

You have no way of knowing why he is losing.

 

of course we do. He's losing for the same reason Romney lost four years ago only worse.

 

getting a majority of the white male vote, which Romney did easily in 2012, is not enough to win American presidential elections any more. Romney cleaned up with them. But he still lost the election, by a mile.

 

America is not a 'white' country, the way it used to be. Trump's going to get slaughtered by the Latinos, blacks, Asian-Americans, you name it, even more than Romney was.

 

white Americans aren't even going to turn out. In 2012, for the first time ever, black Americans turned out to the polls in greater numbers than white Americans did. That's going to continue. They WANT to vote more, to stop this psycho.

 

some analysts think minority turnout determined the result of the 2012 election : https://www.brookings.edu/research/minority-turnout-determined-the-2012-election/

 

everybody who wasn't a white male thought Romney was a dipstick last time, never mind Trump this time.

 

women were not going to vote for Trump anyway, even before the release of the video which is when Trump's already very slender chance to win became an impossibility.

 

the big story of this election is not how Trump lost, because Trump was always going to lose. The big story is how the Republicans could possibly have allowed Trump to get the nomination and pollute their brand.

 

there was a time when the Republicans won nearly every American presidential election. Now they're not even getting close!

Edited October 22, 2016 by blake

[tinfoilhat]

My bold=

Eloquent remainers are a rarity, most remainers are at the bitter and twisted stage.

Some remainers have resorted to ageism= http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/after-the-referendum-the-ugly-scourge-of-ageism/18499#.WArBK-t4WrU

 

Why couldn't you just put "I didn't listen to it, here's a random link".

 

---------- Post added 22-10-2016 at 12:45 ----------

 

You have no way of knowing why he is losing. You cannot say if it's because of false allegations of misogyny repeated ad nausium in the media or if it's because he says he will work with the Russians after they have been demonized ad nausium in the media. I doubt you would actually know anything about Trump were it not for the media. Have you attended any of his rallies?

 

I'm not even going to dispute whether he's a head case as you put it. He certainly wouldn't be my first choice. The only thing I know for sure is he's a lot better than Hilary Clinton who is not only a criminal and ineligible for the position, but who's stated policy of a no-fly-zone (aka: bombing campaign) would lead to large numbers of civilian deaths (according to her).

 

She would also put her own citizens lives at risk by shooting down Russian planes and her policy would almost certainly

which would put all of our lives at risk here in Sheffield. For what? To help some Islamist rebels in Syria? To my mind that makes her even more of a head case than him and I'm not alone in that thinking either.

 

Hold on a minute. Have you been at the rallies? At the debates? Of course you haven't, you picked through obscure websites to build an argument you support. I've watched the footage of him. Read his tweets. I, and hopefully enough Americans don't need media opinion to colour judgement about him.

[blake]

Clinton's pulled away in all the big marginal states, Florida and Ohio have moved well away from Trump's grasp.

 

it also looks like she might get states that Obama didn't even get in his big 2008 win like Arizona.

 

Trump's probably going to win Indiana which Obama got in 2008 (but not 2012) but he won't pull off what passed for his campaign strategy - taking clear blue previously solid Democratic Mid West states. There's too many women who completed high school in them. Too many blacks. Too many Latinos. Too many people, that don't like Trump.

 

Trump's had it. He hasn't got a chance.

[Guest]

People will regret Hillary becoming President.

 

---------- Post added 22-10-2016 at 19:11 ----------

 

Clinton's pulled away in all the big marginal states, Florida and Ohio have moved well away from Trump's grasp.

 

it also looks like she might get states that Obama didn't even get in his big 2008 win like Arizona.

 

Trump's probably going to win Indiana which Obama got in 2008 (but not 2012) but he won't pull off what passed for his campaign strategy - taking clear blue previously solid Democratic Mid West states. There's too many women who completed high school in them. Too many blacks. Too many Latinos. Too many people, that don't like Trump.

 

Trump's had it. He hasn't got a chance.

 

I'm beginning to wonder whether the world is being conned here. Is Trump secretly in cahoots with Hilary to get her into the white house by eliminating all the other more credible Republican candidates?

[rinzwind]

For months and months and months, all the major American politics websites like fivethirtyeight.com and realclearpolitics.com etc have been predicting a steady probability of about an 85% chance that Clinton is going to win.

 

Political pollsters have been very wrong recently. The establishment has been alarmingly wrong all year. The establishment cannot accept how hated they have become by the people. They simply don't believe it and this is causing them to get everything wrong. They still think they are popular. Consequently they keep being surprised. If you recall, pundits were saying Trump didn't have a cat in hells chance of becoming the republican nomination. They were wrong.

 

In addition, there are various reports of news agencies like Fox and CNN rigging their own polls. Interviewing majority democrats who lean towards Clinton. This is predictive programming. They wouldn't be doing this unless they felt they had to. The idea is to make people think Trump doesn't have a chance/has already lost and therefore make people shrug and say... "Well I might as well vote for Clinton then. I don't like her, but at least I won't be labelled as a womanizer or racist."

 

Unfortunately the alternative media seems to be overtaking the legacy mainstream media in terms of influence. People can see through all the lies now. The talking heads on the Telly, political pundits and establishment figures don't know what they are talking about. This is nothing new of course. The only new thing is that the people are aware of it now.

 

the British political figure that Trump is most like, is Jeremy Corbyn, who has similarly flushed a major political party straight down the toilet and into the wilderness exactly the same way as Trump has his.

 

Actually Jeremy Corbyn might surprise you (again). If you recall, Jeremy didn't have a chance of being elected party leader. He was a rank outsider until he won in a landslide. Then the PLP thought they could change the rules, deny him loads of votes and successfully challenge his leadership. They were wrong again. Corbyn was elected with an even bigger majority. All the predictive programming in the world doesn't seem to make a difference anymore. I fancy Corbyn's chances. He's the only peace activist I see in Westminster. Lies about Iraq, Libya and Syria have woken people up to the fact that political elites are bloodthirsty psychopaths.

 

It should also be noted that Jeremy and Trump are both political opposites (loving your attempt to conflate the two). Trump is far right and Corbyn is far left. The only thing they have in common is that they are both fighting against the establishment and rightly so.

 

of course we do. He's losing for the same reason Romney lost four years ago only worse.

 

No, you don't. You can't tell what millions of Americans are thinking. You only know what the media you watch are telling you they are thinking. This is the same media that said Trump didn't have a chance of winning the nomination. The media repeatedly draws attention to irrelevancies as if these things matter to people when really they don't. They only matter to easily influenced people who would probably have voted Clinton anyway.

 

getting a majority of the white male vote, which Romney did easily in 2012, is not enough to win American presidential elections any more. Romney cleaned up with them. But he still lost the election, by a mile.

 

Trump is appealing to the "I hate the government crowd" This crowd is IMO substantially larger than the white male crowd. I think I read a survey somewhere that said the majority of Americans prefer cockroaches to politicians.

white Americans aren't even going to turn out.

 

Actually Trump supporters are highly motivated. This is why I consider the majority of the polls wrong. Ask 100 people who they will vote for and they will tell you one candidate or the other. The truth is 40% of them won't bother to vote at all. I would wager that the majority of these people are on Clinton's side because she represents the status quo. Trump voters would crawl through broken glass to cast their vote for him. People voted for Obama because they wanted change. This time around Trump is the change candidate.

 

women were not going to vote for Trump anyway, even before the release of the video which is when Trump's already very slender chance to win became an impossibility.

 

Again, people don't believe the lies on the telly anymore. All these stories about Trumps sexual misconduct are as transparent as lies about Iraq. None of them have any

. If anything these smear tactics will drive more people to vote for Trump, not less. The only people that fall for them are the people that would vote Hillary anyway. The media is continuously talking about them like they are the only stories that matter but anyone intelligent can sense that in the background are much more important stories coming from wikileaks and out of Syria.

 

 

Hold on a minute. Have you been at the rallies? At the debates? Of course you haven't, you picked through obscure websites to build an argument you support. I've watched the footage of him. Read his tweets. I, and hopefully enough Americans don't need media opinion to colour judgement about him.

 

I'm not the one claiming to know Trump without the media. FYI I've watched most of his rallies on the internet and Clinton's too. What you call "obscure websites" are now far more trusted (and perhaps even more influential) than the

. Anybody who uses the internet or twitter or who reads the comments section on any pages that still allow comments, knows for a fact the mainstream media cannot be believed.

 

We also know for a fact that Hillary is a warmonger and a criminal. She has consistently endorsed starting new wars and expanding others. With Hillary you know you are electing somebody with a lengthy trail of death and destruction behind her. Trump on the other hand "might" be a rapist, the jury is still out but so far there is zero evidence beside

.

 

It’s going to be either the possible rapist, or else the definite and serial warmonger.

Edited October 22, 2016 by rinzwind

[blake]

you just obviously don't know anything, at all, about American presidential elections. Trump just can't win this election and I'm not saying that because I don't want Trump to win myself. Trump just hasn't got the numbers. He hasn't got the votes. He's going to come up well short. A lot of the people who seem to you to be enthusing for him at his rallies, aren't even going to vote for him, or anyone else, in the election. They're not registered, to vote, and even if they are registered, they won't turn out like say Asian Americans, who will vote 90% for Clinton, will turn out.

 

with black American voters, who comprise 13% of America's 320 million people, and who in the last election turned out to vote more than white people did, only about 1-2% of them will vote for Trump. Whole journalistic crews have gone through city areas where there is a lot of blacks, and they haven't even been able to find one person, that has said that they will vote for Trump, out of hundreds of people that they've asked. There's never been anything like it.

Edited October 22, 2016 by blake

[rinzwind]

you just obviously don't know anything, at all, about American presidential elections.

 

Yeah obviously.

 

Trump just can't win this election and I'm not saying that because I don't want Trump to win myself.

 

I think that's exactly why you are saying it.

 

Trump just hasn't got the numbers. He hasn't got the votes. He's going to come up well short.

 

Recently he was ahead in the polls until Clinton started her "trump is a rapist" smear campaign. There's still two weeks to go and Julian Assange said he would bury Clinton before the election for sure. Let's hope he's still alive.

 

A lot of the people who seem to you to be enthusing for him at his rallies, aren't even going to vote for him, or anyone else, in the election. They're not registered, to vote, and even if they are registered, they won't turn out like say Asian Americans, who will vote 90% for Clinton, will turn out.

 

That's just total speculation. Did you even read my previous post? I was very clear that Trump supporters are more likely to vote. It's the Clinton voters that will stay home because they can't stand their own candidate.

 

 

with black American voters, who comprise 13% of American's 320 million people, and who in the last election turned out to vote more than white people did, only about 1-2% of them will vote for Trump.

 

You're pulling these numbers out of where?

 

Whole journalistic crews have gone through city areas where there is a lot of blacks, and they haven't even been able to find one person, that has said that they will vote for Trump, out of hundreds of people that they've asked. There's never been anything like it.

 

Can you provide a link to this story you're talking about?

 

Something like this....

Edited October 22, 2016 by rinzwind

[blake]

even Trump has acknowledged that he has not convinced black voters and that is putting it mildly. He's said that AFTER he gets elected president, and when he runs again in 2020, then 95% of them instead of the 1% that will vote for him this time.

 

trouble is for him, there's a lot of black voters in the states like Ohio and Pennsylvania where he thought he might win months ago. And it's not like 100 years ago when working class blacks didn't vote in elections. It's working class whites, not blacks, that don't vote now.

 

and forget about blacks anyway. Latinos are going to vote for him nearly as less. And they are a much bigger, voting bloc than blacks are.

 

it's just been a totally messed up campaign.

 

it's been the most misconceived and fantastical presidential campaign in history and he's going to lose by a lot.

[rinzwind]

even Trump has acknowledged that he has not convinced black voters and that is putting it mildly. He's said that AFTER he gets elected president, and when he runs again in 2020, then 95% of them instead of the 1% that will vote for him this time.

 

trouble is for him, there's a lot of black voters in the states like Ohio and Pennsylvania where he thought he might win months ago. And it's not like 100 years ago when working class blacks didn't vote in elections. It's working class whites, not blacks, that don't vote now.

 

and forget about blacks anyway. Latinos are going to vote for him nearly as less. And they are a much bigger, voting bloc than blacks are.

 

it's just been a totally messed up campaign.

 

it's been the most misconceived and fantastical presidential campaign in history and he's going to lose by a lot.

 

It's true that black voters traditionally vote Democrat. That doesn't mean the Democrats win all the time. George Bush got only 7% and 3% of the black vote during the two elections he won. He still did win.

 

This time around black voters feel badly let down by their first black president who oversaw more race riots than any other president. Clinton is not black and when her husband stood for election he got less black voters than any democrat since Kennedy.

 

Black voters usually vote for change because they are the people who often feel the most exploited.

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/139880/election-polls-presidential-vote-groups.aspx

Edited October 22, 2016 by rinzwind