The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[El Cid]

The Liberal Democrats have caused a major upset in the latest referendum over staying in the EU

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486

[ez8004]

The Liberal Democrats have caused a major upset in the latest referendum over staying in the EU

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486

 

Need to bring some reality to this result. Both of the front running candidates were opposed to Heathrow expansion. The Lib Dem was anti Brexit and Richmond is a very pro EU area. It really isn't a surprise to be honest. Yes, it was impressive to overturn a 20k+ majority. However, with all considered it was actually a very likely result.

 

This will give the Remainers some hope if a GE was called that the rest of the country might reconsider. I don't think this result alone is enough of a catalyst to suddenly change a lot minds over the referendum vote. This is a small step in that direction though.

[I1L2T3]

If a GE was called right now the Tories would win it. As it gets closer to March and reality bites then I'm not so sure. I think the UK is going to wake up in January with a massive hangover and the reality is going to kick in.

 

Evey day that passes it's clearer that the Brexit emperor has no clothes. Hard Brexit is an insane concept. Utter madness. On every level. What a waste of a year 2016 has been.

[tzijlstra]

Think about the absurdity of it. We're running a big deficit with the EU. We're talking here about offering them billions of pounds a year in order to keep that deficit in place. They should pay us.

 

No they shouldn't, the UK actually benefits from having a trade deficit, that is - it has a trade deficit because it is importing things that it can not afford to make itself.

 

Afford at this point is labelled in terms of labour and capacity. As most Brexiteers will argue - the country is 'full'. It is a simplified fallacy to think the UK will just start producing the things it imports itself, volume imports include foodstuffs, there is no way the UK can actually provide for its own demand in food. 'Aha, that's because them immigrants' the less disconcerting Brexiteer will argue. Ignoring the fact that immigrants are used in all layers of food production in this country.

 

If the UK wants to overturn its trade deficit it needs to do so in the service sectors; finance, design, consulting, art etc. and to do that it needs those services to operate in as large a market as possible with as little impediment as possible.

[andyofborg]

I don't get this at all. You think the UK should panic about are ability to sell into the EU, but the EU should not worry in the slightest about their must larger trade into the UK.

 

a large chunk of the EU won't care about selling into the UK because they don't trade very much with us now. the bulk of EU trade with the UK is done by a handful of the 27.

 

i think we established a few thousand posts ago that a "bad" deal for the UK was also a "bad" deal for the EU and a "good" deal for the UK was also a "good" deal for the EU.

[unbeliever]

a large chunk of the EU won't care about selling into the UK because they don't trade very much with us now. the bulk of EU trade with the UK is done by a handful of the 27.

 

Perhaps so, but the most affected countries are also the most powerful.

 

i think we established a few thousand posts ago that a "bad" deal for the UK was also a "bad" deal for the EU and a "good" deal for the UK was also a "good" deal for the EU.

 

This is wholeheartedly agree with.

 

---------- Post added 02-12-2016 at 08:56 ----------

 

The Liberal Democrats have caused a major upset in the latest referendum over staying in the EU

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486

 

¿ I assert without evidence that the result of this by-election is invalid. The result should be ignored and the original MP reinstated forthwith. ¿

[Justin Smith]

The Liberal Democrats have caused a major upset in the latest referendum over staying in the EU

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486

 

It`ll be interesting to see how the Brexiteers argue this one away, but they will. A bit of truth bending was never a problem for them in the Referendum, not even now. Apparently 30% of the Tories who switched to the LibDems actually voted Leave, they just don`t want the "hard Brexit" that the present extremist dominated Govt keep (falsely) telling us the UK voted for,

 

Incidentally, the Richmond by-election replicated the Witney one, a 22% swing to the LibDems at Richmond and a 20% swing at Witney. These are huge swings.

I`d love to know how the Dailly Express and the Daily Mail are going to present this. Can anyone tell me why anyone reads those papers ? I won`t call them newspapers (because they aren`t).

 

A divided country, who can deny we haven`t got that big style now. And all for something most people (85%) weren`t that bothered about only 18 months ago.... Still UKIP and some right wing Tories are happy and that`s all that counts.

Edited December 2, 2016 by Justin Smith

[unbeliever]

It`ll be interesting to see how the Brexiteers argue this one away, but they will. A bit of truth bending was never a problem for them in the Referendum, not even now. Apparently 30% of the Tories who switched to the LibDems actually voted Leave, they just don`t want the "hard Brexit" that the present extremist dominated Govt keep (falsely) telling us the UK voted for,

 

Incidentally, the Richmond by-election almost exactly replicated the Witney one, a 22% swing to the LibDems at Richmond, a 23% swing at Witney.

I`d most of all, love to know how the Dailly Express and the Daily Mail are going to present this. Can anyone tell me why anyone reads those papers, I won`t call them newspapers (because they aren`t).

 

They voted 70% to remain in the referendum, and now 52% for the remain candidate offered to them. They've not changed their minds about anything really.

You can't really think that a vote in 1 constituency out of 650, where if anything remain has lost votes, compares in any way to the referendum.

 

This is actually a good thing on every level. A remain dominated constituency now have a remain candidate to represent them and argue for re-entry into the EU. That's as it should be.

Edited December 2, 2016 by unbeliever

[Justin Smith]

They voted 70% to remain in the referendum, and now 52% for the remain candidate offered to them. They've not changed their minds about anything really.

You can't really think that a vote in 1 constituency out of 650, where if anything remain has lost votes, compares in any way to the referendum.

 

This is actually a good thing on every level. A remain dominated constituency now have a remain candidate to represent them and argue for re-entry into the EU. That's as it should be.

 

You`re forgetting the Witney by-election, a similar huge swing. You`re also forgetting that, apparently, 30% of those who switched to the LibDems voted Leave at the referendum. If you think the UK voted for a Hard Brexit at the referendum, how do you excplain that ?

I also think you`re forgetting the fact Heathrow expansion may have influenced the result the other way, there`s a lot of ill feeling about it donw there and support for Goldsmith because of it. He still had a huge swing against him though.

 

Tell me UB, I`d love to know, which newspaper do you read ?

Edited December 2, 2016 by Justin Smith

[Harrystottle]

The Liberal Democrats have caused a major upset in the latest referendum over staying in the EU

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486

 

Some referendum. Traditionally it used to be a LidDem seat, it voted Remain in the referendum and Labour voters switched to the Libdems to get Zac Goldsmith out.

 

Oh, and the turnout was 53.6%, so the locals weren't exactly overwhelmingly enthused about turning out.

 

It is the LibDems great day though; if it keeps on like this they'll have to buy a bigger minibus to transport their MP's.