The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[apelike]

Italy looks like being next. They need to exit the Euro, but there's no legal way for them to do that, so they'll have to exit the EU.

 

As said before this sort of tie up is one of the biggest stumbling blocks for the EU and shows how it lacks any flexibility. It has been designed that member-states have no way of easily negotiating out so when problems occur it causes chaos.

[unbeliever]

As said before this sort of tie up is one of the biggest stumbling blocks for the EU and shows how it lacks any flexibility. It has been designed that member-states have no way of easily negotiating out so when problems occur it causes chaos.

 

The biggest problem with the Euro is once you're in there's no legal way out.

The second biggest problem is that although the economies may have largely converged before it was initiated, there's nothing to stop them diverging later.

The third problem with the Euro was that the economies involved did not really converge before it was initiated anyway.

There are many more problems but I think these are the top 3.

 

You probably could have got together a group of EU nations robust enough to make a go of a single currency, but instead Euro membership was made (with 2 exceptions) mandatory for political reasons.

Edited January 4, 2017 by unbeliever

[hush]

Yeah, the 25 other EU countries need us far more than we need them...

 

Oh wait. No they don't. That's the sort of brexit thinking that has got us to this point and which is based entirely on being detached from economic (possibly any) reality.

 

Perhaps you just aren't bright enough to consider that several EU countries have bond yields several times higher than ours. They also have unemployment several times ours. That is why so many of their nationals come here to get work and why their home industries relly so much on exporting to the UK.

 

Yeah right. Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal don't need our business. What planet do you live on?

 

"Portuguese 10-year bond yields have soared about 127 bps this year to 3.80 percent. "

 

Greek bond rates typically 6.88%

Edited January 4, 2017 by hush

[Gamston]

That must come as a relief to the UK government that they are thinking the same way as the EU.

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/malta-prime-minister-joseph-muscat-on-eu-brexit-negotiations-single-market-and-immigration-article-50-2016-11

 

LONDON — The European Union is not "bluffing" when it says it will push Britain into a "hard Brexit" — stripping the UK's membership of the 27-nation single market — if Prime Minister Theresa insists in opting out of freedom of movement, says the prime minister of Malta.

 

Joseph Muscat told the BBC says that the expectations May's cabinet, specifically Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson's expectations of staying in the single market while also placing restrictions on the freedom of movement for EU citizens is "just not happening."

There will be no freedom of movement and the UK should offer to keep 100% tariff free trading with the EU, without being in the single market.

 

The Malta Prime Minister should be making plans for less hands outs from the EU after they lose the UK's contributions, rather than pretending he has any influence in negotiations.

[andyofborg]

Italy looks like being next. They need to exit the Euro, but there's no legal way for them to do that, so they'll have to exit the EU.

 

why do they need to exit the euro?

 

should they want to then the legal way would be for the italian government to decide to leave the euro

 

leaving the eu wouldn't necessarily mean they had to stop using the euro

[unbeliever]

why do they need to exit the euro?

 

 

The immediate reasons they need to leave the Euro are that they can't really rescue their banking sector from within it.

The fundamental reason they need to leave the Euro is that they're incapable of keeping their economy in synch with Germany's so the Eurozone macro-economic policy is, and will continue to be, routinely damaging for Italy in various ways that their own fiat currency would not.

 

 

should they want to then the legal way would be for the italian government to decide to leave the euro

 

leaving the eu wouldn't necessarily mean they had to stop using the euro

 

 

These 2 statements are false. The treaties provide for neither of these options.

[chalga]

There will be no freedom of movement and the UK should offer to keep 100% tariff free trading with the EU, without being in the single market.

 

The Malta Prime Minister should be making plans for less hands outs from the EU after they lose the UK's contributions, rather than pretending he has any influence in negotiations.

 

So let's see,the Malta prime minister is saying what you are saying,that you both want negotiations to go the same way,but yet you feel the need to denigrate what he says..........why would that be then?

[unbeliever]

So let's see,the Malta prime minister is saying what you are saying,that you both want negotiations to go the same way,but yet you feel the need to denigrate what he says..........why would that be then?

 

Because he genuinely thinks that the Maltese PM has very little power, expertise and influence in this matter?

 

You feel the need to psychoanalyse the posts of others. I wonder why you feel that way. Would you like to lie on a couch and tell me about your mother?

[L00b]

Yeah, the 25 other EU countries need us far more than we need them...

 

Oh wait. No they don't. That's the sort of brexit thinking that has got us to this point and which is based entirely on being detached from economic (possibly any) reality.

I'm just back from spending Xmas in France, during which time I met potential partners with a view to circumvent our forthcoming loss of access to the EUIPO (set up a JV, shared office etc. so we'd have a Euro office staffed by pros, in a cost neutral and mutually beneficial relationship). In each case, people I've done business with for a long time (nearly 2 decades in one case), and very strong and cordial relationships.

 

They're just not interested. At all. For love or money.

 

Exact same vibes coming from both: the UK's going down the tubes in the short-term at least (so no interest in reciprocal investment for them to get a better toehold in the UK market through us, since the UK market is expected to contract), and the existing business we have at the EUIPO will be free for their (and their Continental and Irish competition's) taking come March 2019 (so they're not about to increase said competition by sharing office space/services with a new UK comer, even against payment).

 

Can't blame them, makes perfect business sense and this is business, nothing personal.

 

Whence currently, it looks like we have no choice but to invest much more than initially envisaged and actually open our own office there (with a corresponding drop in taxable profits and therefore income to No.11). And no UK job creation for a while. Our UK activity will effectively be sponsoring EU job creation, at least initially until the EU office can earn its keep.

 

No choice, as the alternative is simple, many times explained on here already: conservatively, 25% less business come March 2019 (though pragmatically, I expect that drop to start long before), again corresponding drop in taxable profits and therefore income to No.11. And layoffs.

 

That's the economic reality. Well, mine at least.

Edited January 4, 2017 by L00b

[chalga]

Because he genuinely thinks that the Maltese PM has very little power, expertise and influence in this matter?

 

You feel the need to psychoanalyse the posts of others. I wonder why you feel that way. Would you like to lie on a couch and tell me about your mother?

 

Being the know all that you think you are,I wouldn't need to tell you about my mother,you already know.............are you his mouth piece now?............the guy from Malta is saying the same as him,yet he still feels the need to denigrate someone agreeing with the way he wants brexit to go.............now butt out and let him answer.