unbeliever Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 I'm opining under the common sense position that the EU holds more cards and that if they do indeed end up having to self-harm for political reasons, this will still pale into insignificance compared to the UK's own dose of self-harming for political reasons. So far, only the UK has shown (well, claimed-) itself ready and willing to tank its national economy for the sake of cutting immigration. Once again. This "tanking" of the national economy is a pile of pseudo-scientific, statistically-illiterate group-think that has so far universally failed to make even a vaguely accurate prediction. It is bad form to refer to it as if it were a fact. Even the BoE now admits its failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 (edited) Once again. This "tanking" of the national economy is a pile of pseudo-scientific, statistically-illiterate group-think that has so far universally failed to make even a vaguely accurate prediction. It is bad form to refer to it as if it were a fact. Even the BoE now admits its failure. Once again. I'm happy to let events unfold and vindicate me over time. As they have done so far, 6 months on: still no Article 50, still no plan, High Court challenge win, Sterling down, inflation beginning to increase. Such dominoes are ponderously slow to fall, because Real Life™. I'm not a showy one pining for slam dunks and victory dances, it's enough to keep a tally and tick boxes as time goes on EDIT: do you want a recap of my 'next' ones? Supreme Court appeal failure, Article 50 no earlier than this summer (if it happens), still no plan, Sterling further down, inflation >3% (maybe up to 5%) at year end. I'm currently mulling over adding a 2nd referendum about the actual (negotiated) brexit terms to the list, but that's still a real outlier with a 2019 horizon, I may end up dismissing it yet Edited January 10, 2017 by L00b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Once again. I'm happy to let events unfold and vindicate me over time. As they have done so far: still no Article 50, still no plan, High Court challenge win, Sterling down, inflation beginning to increase. I'm not a showy one pining for slam dunks and victory dances, it's enough to keep a tally and tick boxes as time goes on That's fairly easy to achieve if you keep changing the questions next to the tick boxes after the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 That's fairly easy to achieve if you keep changing the questions next to the tick boxes after the event.Have I done that? When and where? Feel free to check my posting history across the multifarious Brexit threads since 2015. It's all there for the looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frans2755 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Which is why you never keep all your money in the form of a single fiat currency. So if I understand you correctly everybody has UsDollars, Euro's, jaoanese yens in their wallits to compensate the loss of the pound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Have I done that? When and where? I'm falling into the trap again of tarring all remainers with the same brush. Sorry about that. ---------- Post added 10-01-2017 at 14:04 ---------- So if I understand you correctly everybody has UsDollars, Euro's, jaoanese yens in their wallits to compensate the loss of the pound. No. Buy things rather than just collecting money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinfoilhat Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Which is why you never keep all your money in the form of a single fiat currency. That doesn't takeaway from the fact the pound dropped like a stone post referendum and hasn't got back to anywhere near what it was. It's a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 That doesn't takeaway from the fact the pound dropped like a stone post referendum and hasn't got back to anywhere near what it was. It's a fact. It is, and both campaigns agreed it would happen before the vote. We voted to leave anyway. It's not a uniformly bad thing. We're not all suddenly 12% poorer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apelike Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 That doesn't takeaway from the fact the pound dropped like a stone post referendum and hasn't got back to anywhere near what it was. It's a fact. It has dropped many times much lower in the past since 1967 (14%) and recovered. It dropped again in 1977 and recovered. Dropped again in 1985 to a low of $1.09 and recovered. In 1992 we left the ERM where in reality it depreciated by 26% and recovered. It dropped again in 2008 and lost around 20% and recovered, so no reason to believe it wont recover again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinfoilhat Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 It has dropped many times much lower in the past since 1967 (14%) and recovered. It dropped again in 1977 and recovered. Dropped again in 1985 to a low of $1.09 and recovered. In 1992 we left the ERM where in reality it depreciated by 26% and recovered. It dropped again in 2008 and lost around 20% and recovered, so no reason to believe it wont recover again. I don't doubt it will recover, but surely it's better when it doesn't drop through the floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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