The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[NigelFargate]

And so it begins.... inevitable, irreversible and as more do it even more unstoppable.

 

Get your money out now whilst you still can..

 

Remainers are becoming more like Jehovah's Witnesses every day - scouring the news for signs of the end of the world as we know it as a result of Brexit. Where would they be without their daily fix of doom and gloom stories (however trivial) used to reinforce their millenarian visions of looming catastrophe?

[Cyclone]

"What are you, a variation of an ostrich?"

 

You think that a reference to having your head buried in the sand is the same as calling people thick?

 

---------- Post added 28-01-2017 at 16:38 ----------

 

Remainers are becoming more like Jehovah's Witnesses every day - scouring the news for signs of the end of the world as we know it as a result of Brexit. Where would they be without their daily fix of doom and gloom stories (however trivial) used to reinforce their millenarian visions of looming catastrophe?

 

These are headlines, nobody needs to "scour", all you have to do is simply stop pretending that brexit is a good thing and look at what is happening. I assume you can't though, because then you'd have voted for something disastrous, so you're all going to keep fiddling like Nero.

Edited January 28, 2017 by Cyclone

[Flexo]

And so it begins.... inevitable, irreversible and as more do it even more unstoppable.

 

Get your money out now whilst you still can..

 

That is happening already - big time.

 

Fund managers - that's the people who look after pension investments and so on - manage $11 trillion of reserves globally.

 

Before the referendum they had over 10% of reserves held in Sterling.

 

Since then it has declined to 4.5%

 

See the graph on the Bloomberg report:

 

Pound Risks Becoming Irrelevant as Brexit Dims Reserve Status

[chalga]

That is happening already - big time.

 

Fund managers - that's the people who look after pension investments and so on - manage $11 trillion of reserves globally.

 

Before the referendum they had over 10% of reserves held in Sterling.

 

Since then it has declined to 4.5%

 

See the graph on the Bloomberg report:

 

Pound Risks Becoming Irrelevant as Brexit Dims Reserve Status

 

Well scoured

[monkey104]

That is happening already - big time.

 

Fund managers - that's the people who look after pension investments and so on - manage $11 trillion of reserves globally.

 

Before the referendum they had over 10% of reserves held in Sterling.

 

Since then it has declined to 4.5%

 

See the graph on the Bloomberg report:

 

Pound Risks Becoming Irrelevant as Brexit Dims Reserve Status

 

If you google the effects of Brexit on fund managers you will find a host of articles with view ranging from doom and gloom to highly optimistic.

 

The trouble with people making forecasts about Brexit is that it is only opinions and we all know that opinions are like arse holes, every one has one.

[unbeliever]

As I said earlier. Anecdotes are useless. They back up whatever the observer wishes. Monitor growth (or otherwise) in the financial services sector in the ONS or other reliable data.

[andyofborg]

As I said earlier. Anecdotes are useless. They back up whatever the observer wishes. Monitor growth (or otherwise) in the financial services sector in the ONS or other reliable data.

 

Around a third of the finance sectors business is related to Euro denominated transactions which will end the uk's passporting rights ends. That business will end. We might be able to negotiate some mutual recognition pact which might save some of it. The risk is that at some point in the future, one side wants to amend its regulation system in a way that the other finds unacceptable and the pact ends in tears and recrimination. The risk free way to retain the right to do Euro business is to relocate and it seems many are doing that. Some businesses will remain, depending on how important they see the euro part of the business, their attitude to the risks and the sorts of deals they do. London has all the other infrastructure to do big deals, solicitors, accountants etc, The other big euro finance capitals don't have that yet. Migrating businesses will drive that development.

 

The key to the finance sectors survival, and no matter how you feel about it, the sector is keeping the country afloat, is what happens to the other two thirds. If London loses its appeal then that will go to places like New York (some may go to take advantage of Trumps infrastructure plans regardless of anything's else) or Singapore. London may find its only chance of survival is to take on more risky/dodgy transactions which wouldn't be a recipe for long term stable success.

[unbeliever]

That all sounds plausible. Let's see if the financial services sector actually contracts.

[I1L2T3]

That all sounds plausible. Let's see if the financial services sector actually contracts.

 

It's one of the few silver linings I can think of to be honest. The only hope is that if it does contract then it happens in a gradual and managed way so that the economic shock isn't too great.

 

Thankfully May is now implementing an interventionist industrial stretegy which could help make up for declines in other sectors, and weirdly Corbyn is on almost the same page with the concept. Both I guess sense the opportunities for state support that the EU heavily restricted.

[unbeliever]

It's one of the few silver linings I can think of to be honest. The only hope is that if it does contract then it happens in a gradual and managed way so that the economic shock isn't too great.

 

Thankfully May is now implementing an interventionist industrial stretegy which could help make up for declines in other sectors, and weirdly Corbyn is on almost the same page with the concept. Both I guess sense the opportunities for state support that the EU heavily restricted.

 

Rebalancing the economy sounds nice. There's no reason anything would have to contract for that. All that is required is for one sector to grow faster than another.