The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[L00b]

All services are tariff-free under WTO rules, so when one is assessing tariffs there is no issue of including them.

Ah, right. Silly me.

 

So, there's no need to concern ourselves with non-tariffs barriers to UK services (80% of the UK economy)?

 

Quick question to you, then: what would you call e.g. the loss of passporting rights?

 

To assist your consideration of the question, I remind you that it's an automatic loss of legal rights through exiting the EU jurisdiction, not a protectionist measure of the EU because of Brexit.

 

I'm also reminding you that intra-EU international trade was £3tn in 2015, to contrast with £3.5tn for EU-RoW (source).

 

Just for an idea of the scale within which the £7bn (£0.007tn) differential in Civitas' report fits in

Edited February 8, 2017 by L00b
added linky/source

[unbeliever]

Ah, right. Silly me.

 

So, there's no need to concern ourselves with non-tariffs barriers to UK services (80% of the UK economy)?

 

Quick question to you, then: what would you call e.g. the loss of passporting rights?

 

To assist your consideration of the question, I remind you that it's an automatic loss of legal rights through exiting the EU jurisdiction, not a protectionist measure of the EU because of Brexit.

 

I'm also reminding you that intra-EU international trade was £3tn in 2015, to contrast with £3.5tn for EU-RoW (source).

 

Just for an idea of the scale within which the £7bn (£0.007tn) differential in Civitas' report fits in

 

 

Yes. I'm aware of the potential importantance of non-tariff barriers. But we were discussing direct tariff costs which are readily calculable and predictable.

[L00b]

Yes. I'm aware of the potential importantance of non-tariff barriers. But we were discussing direct tariff costs which are readily calculable and predictable.

What's the point of discussing direct tariff comparative costs, when they form such an infinitesimally small part of the overall EU economic and trading picture? is what I'm asking you.

 

Or did you miss the fact that your £7bn tariff differential benefitting the UK (on paper) represents, respectively,

• 0.23% of the EU's external trading activity (to which the UK will belong post-Brexit),
  
• 0.20% of the EU's internal trading activity,
  
• 0.11% of the total EU international trading activity

 

Don't know about you, but I find it hard to get out of bed for discussing points about fractions of a percent. I'm genuinely not trying to derail your point or shoot you as Civitas' messenger...but UK/EU tariffs are so inconsequential for the EU as a trading entity (granted, they may well not be so inconsequential for the UK, whether positively or negatively), as to barely be worth registering on the discussion radar.

 

NTBs on the other hand...now you're talking. About 80% of the UK activity and 75% of the EU activity. In a current context of commodity-grade equivalence of supply across the EU. Which the Germans, the French and the Irish (at least) are already very busy enticing away from the UK.

 

Witness this , which came on my LinkedIn feed today (it's not the first, or the only one, by far). The really important paragraphs are the last two. That's an NTB in action. The UK industry can't do owt to counter (other than, for those who already have an EU office, scream and shout "no change, no change!" to whoever will listen). And the caseloads (and exported UK services and associated revenue) are already walking. Just one example in one small niche industry, I'm confident it's not the only one (I ain't looked at the City in a while). And we haven't even pushed the big red Article 50 button yet.

Edited February 8, 2017 by L00b

[chalga]

Best hope Civitas are right and there is a 7 Billion to come,they're spending it here:

 

 

Meantime, the Civitas think-tank said the UK Government would need to provide almost £9bn in support for businesses to cope with the impact of failing to strike a post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union.

 

Yet, it said the cost could be covered by exacting tariffs on imports from the remaining 27 members of the bloc.

 

The Civitas report suggested that billions could be spent on subsidies and aid within World Trade Organisation rules to help firms as they adapted to the imposition of tariffs on trade with the EU.

[Obelix]

Witness this , which came on my LinkedIn feed today (it's not the first, or the only one, by far). The really important paragraphs are the last two. That's an NTB in action. The UK industry can't do owt to counter (other than, for those who already have an EU office, scream and shout "no change, no change!" to whoever will listen). And the caseloads (and exported UK services and associated revenue) are already walking. Just one example in one small niche industry, I'm confident it's not the only one (I ain't looked at the City in a while). And we haven't even pushed the big red Article 50 button yet.

 

The French just ran a recruitment exercise in the City looking at all talents - not just top level people but everyone down to the regular IT staff. Explicitly designed and state sanctioned to make it easy to move over to Paris. Only a short hop from home through the tunnel you know.

 

The Germans have one in Frankfurt regularly for companies to move over, and they are doing the same as the French in the City.

 

As well as the movement of trade, it's also the brain drain that is already ongoing and well under way that is going to cause immense damage in the UK.

 

---------- Post added 08-02-2017 at 17:14 ----------

 

Best hope Civitas are right and there is a 7 Billion to come,they're spending it here:.

 

Chump change.

 

London trades about 2 trillion dollars a DAY across it's various markets. 9 billion? That's about 7 minutes worth of the daily figure.

 

Not all profit of course - but it gives you some idea of just how much money flows through the City and people simply don't appreciate this scale of things. Over 14 million dollars a second. Most of that is going to vanish if passporting rights are lost and with that everything else goes too. Paris, Frankfurt, Rome are all salivating at the thought of getting their fingers into it.

[unbeliever]

To everybody except Obelix, who will no doubt want to draw attention (yet again) to the fact (?) that he doesn't like my posts and therefore doesn't read them.

 

This is not my field, but a consensus is emerging that there are ways to handle even an extreme no-deal Brexit such that at least the bulk of the financial services businesses survive and it could even put us at an advantage.

 

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21715038-negotiating-bespoke-deal-city-after-brexit-will-not-be-easy-how-city

 

This is a summary of the ideal arrangement post-brexit, according to some leading figures.

https://www.thecityuk.com/assets/2017/Reports-PDF/Brexit-and-UK-based-financial-and-related-professional-services.pdf

 

Permission to operate in the EU has great value, but single market membership is not the only way to gain this.

Once again, there is an (in my view false) assertion, not really backed up by anything, on this forum from some, that the EU will be in a position to steal vital business from the UK. I'm sure that there will be cases of this, but they don't have the capacity for much of it.

 

They need access to buy our financial services as much as we need to sell them.

Once again prophecies of doom, as they have ever since the vote was called (and further back if you count the all but identical ones about EMU) will likely fail to even fractionally materialise.

 

The theoretical potential for catastrophe is there only if you ignore the balance of power here between the UK and the EU and make a variety of extremely pessimistic assumptions.

Edited February 8, 2017 by unbeliever

[El Cid]

Permission to operate in the EU has great value, but single market membership is not the only way to gain this.

Once again, there is a (in my view false) assertion, not really backed up by anything, on this forum from some, that the EU will be in a position to steal vital business from the UK. I'm sure that there will be cases of this, but they don't have the capacity for much of it.

 

They need access to buy our financial services as much as we need to sell them. Once again prophecies of doom.

 

Inside the EU, we have free trade, and everything is done for mutual cooperation; so outside of the EU can only be worse for the UK.

What can be better than free trade, unless you believe in tariffs raising revenue?

 

Its just a question of how much benefit the UK will get from our freedom trading with countries outside the EU.

[unbeliever]

Inside the EU, we have free trade,

 

Yes.

 

and everything is done for mutual cooperation;

 

No. We still compete, but on a notionally level playing field

 

so outside of the EU can only be worse for the UK.

 

That doesn't follow at all.

 

What can be better than free trade, unless you believe in tariffs raising revenue?

 

Better than EU "free trade" would be simple free trade without all the costs and rules and other burdens from the EU PTB.

 

Its just a question of how much benefit the UK will get from our freedom trading with countries outside the EU.

 

Well that's a factor, but there's a lot more to it.

[Jacktari]

This is a quote from the BBC:-

'Peers will now prepare to debate the draft legislation, and a government source told BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg: "If the Lords don't want to face an overwhelming public call to be abolished they must get on and protect democracy and pass this bill." '

 

Where is this 'overwhelming' call going to come from?

It is all whipped up by the press and TV.

 

The average person will not be making any protest whatsoever.

They will just get on with things, no matter a mess up the government makes of things, as they seem determined to do.

 

And these veiled threats to law and order seem very un tory-like.

[unbeliever]

This is a quote from the BBC:-

'Peers will now prepare to debate the draft legislation, and a government source told BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg: "If the Lords don't want to face an overwhelming public call to be abolished they must get on and protect democracy and pass this bill." '

 

Where is this 'overwhelming' call going to come from?

It is all whipped up by the press and TV.

 

The average person will not be making any protest whatsoever.

They will just get on with things, no matter a mess up the government makes of things, as they seem determined to do.

 

And these veiled threats to law and order seem very un tory-like.

 

 

Yes. I've told you this multiple times. Even amongst those who voted remain there is an righteous expectation that the will of the people will be done.

More than they want their choice enacted, they want the government to do as the people instruct.

There's masses of polling on this. You can't just will it away.