The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[NigelFargate]

Oh you found an "expert" who's decided (unlike pretty much all the others) to double-down rather than conceding. I dare say it'll get him some attention.

Bravo on managing to find somebody still waving the flag.

 

The giveaway is the phrase 'calculations using models that incorporate productivity measures'.

 

When will Economists realise that econometric modelling is a dead end as a means of forecasting future economic performance, either at the macroeconomic or microeconomic levels (but particularly the former)? The answer unfortunately is probably never for most of them - but we should always take these predictions with a huge grain of salt.

[Gormenghast]

Could you say, in a nutshell, what this project is and where the EU intends to go in the future?

 

I've been waiting eagerly for an answer for this, but I suppose it won't appear because it's too complicated for our brains to comprehend.

[chalga]

We're discussing the consequences of Brexit. I think it only fair to include in that the consequences of non-Brexit.

 

You can think what you want,what happens in Greece will not improve the lives of those who voted for Brexit and in the way that they want Brexit to improve them.

[NigelFargate]

You have premises in there which I don't accept.

If we'd listened to the Europhiles we could be where Greece are now.

 

Indeed we could. Many of the leading remainers (such as Ken Clarke, Mandelson, Clegg etc) were vociferous cheerleaders for the UK to adopt the single currency, using many of the same arguments used by the remain side today (e.g. the financial service industry would move to Frankfurt and Paris and FDI would fall dramatically - and as we know now, both proved to be the opposite of what happened.

[unbeliever]

Indeed we could. Many of the leading remainers (such as Ken Clarke, Mandelson, Clegg etc) were vociferous cheerleaders for the UK to adopt the single currency, using many of the same arguments used by the remain side today (e.g. the financial service industry would move to Frankfurt and Paris and FDI would fall dramatically - and as we know now, both proved to be the opposite of what happened.

 

Quite. This experience above all others led me to disbelieve their prophecies on the matter of Brexit. Their "oh it's different this time" fell on deaf ears.

Fool me once, shame on you etc etc.

 

---------- Post added 09-02-2017 at 15:21 ----------

 

I've been waiting eagerly for an answer for this, but I suppose it won't appear because it's too complicated for our brains to comprehend.

 

I've also posed this over the last year more than once. There's no consensus on the remain side. Some think a glorious and all powerful superstate which we should all be keen on, others insist that (at least for the UK) integration has ceased and things would have remained pretty much as they were.

Probably why they don't like to respond.

[Gormenghast]

Quite. This experience above all others led me to disbelieve their prophecies on the matter of Brexit. Their "oh it's different this time" fell on deaf ears.

Fool me once, shame on you etc etc.

 

---------- Post added 09-02-2017 at 15:21 ----------

 

 

I've also posed this over the last year more than once. There's no consensus on the remain side. Some think a glorious and all powerful superstate which we should all be keen on, others insist that (at least for the UK) integration has ceased and things would have remained pretty much as they were.

Probably why they don't like to respond.

 

Strange that they can't answer, when they are so sure what's going to happen to the UK after we leave.

[unbeliever]

Strange that they can't answer, when they are so sure what's going to happen to the UK after we leave.

 

Somebody will be along with an anecdote, an unfounded assertion as to future events and maybe a couple emoticons before too long.

[Cyclone]

Uk Economy gaining momentum "despite" Brexit

 

I put despite in quotes because after eventually I expect it to be replaced with "because of" in these stories.

 

As always, we haven't exited yet, we haven't even triggered article 50 yet, and despite that the currency has tanked and economic forecasts are down.

But you'll keep pretending it's all going well, because, well, I don't know, you're a clever chap, but in this you appear to be entirely emotionally driven.

[sgtkate]

Strange that they can't answer, when they are so sure what's going to happen to the UK after we leave.

 

Much in the same way the Brexiters don't seem to be able to answer exactly what will happen when we leave.

I wonder, perhaps it's because most of us have our own ideas about what we'd want/expect and we don't all think the same even if we voted the same way?

 

I'd have loved a federal Europe in a similar vein to the US where there are EU wide laws (the major ones in which pretty much all states agree) and more minor local ones to allow each 'state' to keep their own customs as long as they don't override the EU wide ones.

 

Unfortunately the EU as was/is seems to want to be more than a trading block, but less then a federal body and so is in kinda no mans land. I would have preferred the UK to have stayed a part of the EU so we could have tried to drive it either towards a federal state (unlikely) or return to a trading block rather than leaving and having no say in something that will still have a massive effect on us regardless of whether we are a part or not. Someone worded it like a neighbour having a party (Obelix ) Whether you are invited or not, the music is still going to happen so perhaps better to go and at least have a small control of the jukebox rather than sit at home grumpy that they aren't playing anything by Bowie.

[unbeliever]

As always, we haven't exited yet, we haven't even triggered article 50 yet, and despite that the currency has tanked and economic forecasts are down.

But you'll keep pretending it's all going well, because, well, I don't know, you're a clever chap, but in this you appear to be entirely emotionally driven.

 

The predictions from the economic expert bodies, on which the remainers' prophecies of doom are based, included an immediate growth hit.

You know very well that if the markets expect future problems it feeds back into current activity.

 

---------- Post added 09-02-2017 at 16:09 ----------

 

Much in the same way the Brexiters don't seem to be able to answer exactly what will happen when we leave.

I wonder, perhaps it's because most of us have our own ideas about what we'd want/expect and we don't all think the same even if we voted the same way?

 

I'd have loved a federal Europe in a similar vein to the US where there are EU wide laws (the major ones in which pretty much all states agree) and more minor local ones to allow each 'state' to keep their own customs as long as they don't override the EU wide ones.

 

Unfortunately the EU as was/is seems to want to be more than a trading block, but less then a federal body and so is in kinda no mans land. I would have preferred the UK to have stayed a part of the EU so we could have tried to drive it either towards a federal state (unlikely) or return to a trading block rather than leaving and having no say in something that will still have a massive effect on us regardless of whether we are a part or not. Someone worded it like a neighbour having a party (Obelix ) Whether you are invited or not, the music is still going to happen so perhaps better to go and at least have a small control of the jukebox rather than sit at home grumpy that they aren't playing anything by Bowie.

 

 

This is a vision I think the people could have got behind. Unfortunately the PTB attempted to con the UK people into this by pretending it was something else.