The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[Cyclone]

The markets are forecasting bad things...

Consumer spending didn't drop as much as expected, this is good. The £ tanked and so the immediate £ income of large multinationals listed on the LSE went up, this causes the FTSE100 to spike.

None of which has altered the long term forecasts for incredible damage to be done to our economy by exiting the EU and the easy trade opportunities it provides.

[unbeliever]

The markets are forecasting bad things...

Consumer spending didn't drop as much as expected, this is good. The £ tanked and so the immediate £ income of large multinationals listed on the LSE went up, this causes the FTSE100 to spike.

None of which has altered the long term forecasts for incredible damage to be done to our economy by exiting the EU and the easy trade opportunities it provides.

 

But it has altered the long term forecasts.

It's been in all the papers.

[ricgem2002]

looks like greece will be out next http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/07/eu-faces-crisis-imf-warns-greek-debts-explosive-path/ unless the eu keeps throwing money at them i hope the remoaners will say thank you for brexit when it all goes belly up:hihi:

[unbeliever]

looks like greece will be out next http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/07/eu-faces-crisis-imf-warns-greek-debts-explosive-path/ unless the eu keeps throwing money at them i hope the remoaners will say thank you for brexit when it all goes belly up:hihi:

 

Well Greece doesn't want up exit the EU but they need to exit the EURO.

Hopefully there will be a prompt treaty change to permit this.

What government could in good conscience stand in the way of such s change?

[NigelFargate]

What government could in good conscience stand in the way of such s change?

 

The Greek government.

 

Returning to the drachma would very likely plunge Greece into an even bigger financial crisis in the short to medium terms. Of course, they should never have joined the eurozone in the first place.

[unbeliever]

The Greek government.

 

Returning to the drachma would very likely plunge Greece into an even bigger financial crisis in the short to medium terms. Of course, they should never have joined the eurozone in the first place.

 

Why? They would finally be able to devalue and default. That's standard debt crisis medicine.

[NigelFargate]

Why? They would finally be able to devalue and default. That's standard debt crisis medicine.

 

It is, and a medicine which would have had immediate and positive results if Greece had kept the drachma.

 

However, given Greece's current financial position, who would have any faith in the new currency? Moreover, what reserves would Greece have to perform the function of lender of last resort? There would likely be a massive capital flight from Greece at the hint that the country was about to exit the euro, meaning that Greeks would move heaven and earth to deposit their euros in foreign banks.

 

In comparison, Brexit is a much less problematic event than a Greek exit from the euro would be. Of course, other EU countries and the IMF might seek to prop the country up during the transition period, but they are already sick of lending Greece money and of giving it financial guarantees.

 

For the poorer EU countries, the eurozone is rather like hotel California. Once in, you can't get out (at least not without encountering an abyss).

[unbeliever]

It is, and a medicine which would have had immediate and positive results if Greece had kept the drachma.

 

However, given Greece's current financial position, who would have any faith in the new currency? Moreover, what reserves would Greece have to perform the function of lender of last resort? There would likely be a massive capital flight from Greece at the hint that the country was about to exit the euro, meaning that Greeks would move heaven and earth to deposit their euros in foreign banks.

 

In comparison, Brexit is a much less problematic event than a Greek exit from the euro would be. Of course, other EU countries and the IMF might seek to prop the country up during the transition period, but they are already sick of lending Greece money and of giving it financial guarantees.

 

For the poorer EU countries, the eurozone is rather like hotel California. Once in, you can't get out (at least not without encountering an abyss).

 

You make good points. Would the IMF not be able to finally come up with a serviceable rescue package under the new drachma?

[chalga]

looks like greece will be out next http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/07/eu-faces-crisis-imf-warns-greek-debts-explosive-path/ unless the eu keeps throwing money at them i hope the remoaners will say thank you for brexit when it all goes belly up:hihi:

 

Yeah,the change in the lives that Greece leaving the Eurozone will have on the people in poor run down areas of the UK means Brexit was fully justified.

[altus]

Brexit will cause 'vanishingly small' fall in net migration

The report by a new thinktank, Global Future, shows total net immigration, which at the latest official estimate was 335,000 in the year to June 2016, could be expected to fall by no more than 15%, to 285,000 a year. Future free trade deals with non-EU countries suggests even this reduction could be wiped out.

 

Liam Fox, the international trade minister, accepted last week he did not know of any new free trade deal that did not also include liberalisation of migration rules between the two countries signing such agreements. Australia and India have already indicated they will seek preferential access for their workers as part of a free trade deal.

 

I wouldn't describe a 15% fall as "vanishingly small" - small or very small would be better. Whatever you chose call it, "Nowhere near what those who voted brexit because of immigration are expecting" would definitely fit.