The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[andyofborg]

Its not what it is, in this case if it is blocked and May calls for a GE, a lot of MP will see who they work for

 

but she can't call for a general election

[phil752]

but she can't call for a general election

 

she can if (and i agree she wont) looses a vote.

[andyofborg]

she can if (and i agree she wont) looses a vote.

 

no she can't

 

the only way to dissolve parliament before 2020 is for her to lose an explicit vote of confidence or for two thirds of mp's to vote for dissolution.

 

i doubt labour would support dissolution given it's current position and equally there will be mp's who voted in the referendum differently than their constituents they may not be keen either.

 

i dont think she could get some faux confidence motion through anyway without having to resign and throw the conservative party into turmoil.

 

if they do manage to dissolve parliament, then there will be a lot of focus in the campaign for each party to be far more explicit about their brexit desires, something the government has gone to great lengths to avoid.

[phil752]

no she can't

 

the only way to dissolve parliament before 2020 is for her to lose an explicit vote of confidence or for two thirds of mp's to vote for dissolution.

 

i doubt labour would support dissolution given it's current position and equally there will be mp's who voted in the referendum differently than their constituents they may not be keen either.

 

i dont think she could get some faux confidence motion through anyway without having to resign and throw the conservative party into turmoil.

 

if they do manage to dissolve parliament, then there will be a lot of focus in the campaign for each party to be far more explicit about their brexit desires, something the government has gone to great lengths to avoid.

 

as i said if she was to loose the now likely vote on brexit

[andyofborg]

as i said if she was to loose the now likely vote on brexit

 

the wording of the required motion in the fixed term act seems to be quite clear and it has to be an explicit motion of confidence....

 

i really don't think that she would lose a vote on brexit anyway, i haven't come across any coverage of anyone except a few or the more paranoid brexiters saying that's anything but a remote possibility.

[phil752]

the wording of the required motion in the fixed term act seems to be quite clear and it has to be an explicit motion of confidence....

 

i really don't think that she would lose a vote on brexit anyway, i haven't come across any coverage of anyone except a few or the more paranoid brexiters saying that's anything but a remote possibility.

 

as i said before i too done believe there would be one, no one especially labour want an election

[andyofborg]

as i said before i too done believe there would be one, no one especially labour want an election

 

indeed

 

the thing she should do, is accept the decision of the court, forget the appeal and have a proper debate on brexit - something mp's on all sides have wanted

 

from that comes the red lines and general direction from the negotiations

 

the downside is that this would show up that there isn't a plan and the government is too divided for there ever to be one.

[phil752]

indeed

 

the thing she should do, is accept the decision of the court, forget the appeal and have a proper debate on brexit - something mp's on all sides have wanted

 

from that comes the red lines and general direction from the negotiations

 

the downside is that this would show up that there isn't a plan and the government is too divided for there ever to be one.

 

no just give the all a in or out vote, how can we negotiate terms of leaving if they already know what we want or our bottom line is

[andyofborg]

no just give the all a in or out vote, how can we negotiate terms of leaving if they already know what we want or our bottom line is

 

in the past, prior to every significant negotiation the pm or other minister has given parliament an idea of what they hope to achieve.

 

anyway, the eu negotiators will know our bottom line in the first 15 minutes of the negotiation, so we're hardly giving anything major away.

 

as the eu negotiators will report on the negotiations to the commission, eu parliament and council of ministers then everyone will know our position after the first round finishes.

 

and that doesn't account for the fact that everyone and their dog will be leaking things to the press from the start

 

the other thing is that if we go into the negotiations with the aim of a hard brexit and we keep it secret then that's likely to cause a major political and financial crisis over here which isn't really going to help our position

[I1L2T3]

no just give the all a in or out vote, how can we negotiate terms of leaving if they already know what we want or our bottom line is

 

Maybe what we should do is stop being adversaries. Devise something that suits both the EU and the UK and negotiate on that basis. It'd be much quicker.

 

Soft Brexit is the easy first step. Hard Brexit just makes things more difficult and commits us to spending two years in confrontation, rather than in a productive process that would see us on reasonable terms with the EU.

 

Of course that would require certain officials in the EU to change line too but they ain't going to do that if we insist on treating them like enemies.

 

Our bottom line should be reasonable, not confrontational.

 

---------- Post added 04-11-2016 at 00:54 ----------

 

in the past, prior to every significant negotiation the pm or other minister has given parliament an idea of what they hope to achieve.

 

anyway, the eu negotiators will know our bottom line in the first 15 minutes of the negotiation, so we're hardly giving anything major away.

 

as the eu negotiators will report on the negotiations to the commission, eu parliament and council of ministers then everyone will know our position after the first round finishes.

 

and that doesn't account for the fact that everyone and their dog will be leaking things to the press from the start

 

the other thing is that if we go into the negotiations with the aim of a hard brexit and we keep it secret then that's likely to cause a major political and financial crisis over here which isn't really going to help our position

 

Maybe there is a case for letting things slide a bit longer. Maybe people will wake up a bit when they realise just how serious the economic issues could get.

 

There is no global fantasyland of unfettered free trade, no ideologically perfect free trade paradise out there. It doesn't exist. One country acting alone can't make it come into existence. Time to stop the nonsense from the Brexiters.