unbeliever Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 But that is because they haven't raised the base rate, and they have printed more money - you can't have it both ways. The predicted recession was averted by a bit of QE and slight cut in rates? Pull the other one. ---------- Post added 08-11-2016 at 22:53 ---------- It didn't happen because the BoE injected funds immediately and May kicked the A50 can down the road for 6-8 months. This provides a veneer of stability, nothing more Codswallop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 The predicted recession was averted by a bit of QE and slight cut in rates? Pull the other one. ---------- Post added 08-11-2016 at 22:53 ---------- Codswallop. I know you don't like it but you'll have to get used to a lot of Osborne's predictions coming true. So many fundamentals of the economy are weak it won't take much to tip this all over the edge. We can't use QE for ever but as we will find out there won't be many other options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 I know you don't like it but you'll have to get used to a lot of Osborne's predictions coming true. So many fundamentals of the economy are weak it won't take much to tip this all over the edge. We can't use QE for ever but as we will find out there won't be many other options. It's not a question of like. It's preposterous. You can't will the failed remain predictions true. It doesn't work like that. No matter how hard you pray to the whatever high atop the thing, the Brexit recession does not come. The reality is that there was no loss of consumer confidence and no net loss of business confidence either. Everybody woke up the next day and the sky had not fallen after all. All that project fear stuff was a massive great pile of [expletive deleted]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 I think most sensible folk can agree on that. If this referendum thought us one thing it is that the people have had enough of being lied to, the exact same thing is at the core of the US elections as well. Will the politicians stop lying now, that is worth knowing What for exactly? What exactly do you think the result of a GE would be. What do you realistically think are the options. I want to know what is happening. Are the Tories negotiating a deal that fits with their values, or are they negotiating a deal that the people of the UK want? I am quite happy to have another votes, if it means the negotiators know what to ask for. If the Tories come back with a deal that allows EU workers, but not to live; is that what people voted for? I havnt a clue what the leavers want, neither has Theresa May. ---------- Post added 08-11-2016 at 23:01 ---------- It's not a question of like. It's preposterous. You can't will the failed remain predictions true. It doesn't work like that. No matter how hard you pray to the whatever high atop the thing, the Brexit recession does not come. The reality is that there was no loss of consumer confidence and no net loss of business confidence either. Everybody woke up the next day and the sky had not fallen after all. All that project fear stuff was a massive great pile of [expletive deleted]. The sane predictions are coming true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Litotes Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 It's not a question of like. It's preposterous. You can't will the failed remain predictions true. It doesn't work like that. No matter how hard you pray to the whatever high atop the thing, the Brexit recession does not come. The reality is that there was no loss of consumer confidence and no net loss of business confidence either. Everybody woke up the next day and the sky had not fallen after all. All that project fear stuff was a massive great pile of [expletive deleted]. Business confidence in the UK is down since June Consumer confidence in the UK is down since June No, not by much, but it is down... Source: OECD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 Business confidence in the UK is down since June Consumer confidence in the UK is down since June No, not by much, but it is down... Source: OECD Not enough to make a significant dent in our growth and certainly not enough for the predicted recession. Why can't the remain folk just admit they got it wrong. All this revisionism does them no credit. I'd respect them far more if they could admit a mistake. Some of the less fanatical remainers have to conceded this point. Now I'm waiting on the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 It's not a question of like. It's preposterous. You can't will the failed remain predictions true. It doesn't work like that. No matter how hard you pray to the whatever high atop the thing, the Brexit recession does not come. The reality is that there was no loss of consumer confidence and no net loss of business confidence either. Everybody woke up the next day and the sky had not fallen after all. All that project fear stuff was a massive great pile of [expletive deleted]. I'm not willing it to happen. I don't want it to happen. If you get your way - hard Brexit - then it will happen. Absolutely guaranteed. That is what people need to fight against, and hopefully they'll wake up to the fact that people who share your views are effectively arguing for economic suicide. ---------- Post added 08-11-2016 at 23:13 ---------- Not enough to make a significant dent in our growth and certainly not enough for the predicted recession. Why can't the remain folk just admit they got it wrong. All this revisionism does them no credit. I'd respect them far more if they could admit a mistake. Some of the less fanatical remainers have to conceded this point. Now I'm waiting on the others. Recessions don't just happen overnight. Even after 2007/8 the full feedback from the crisis did not happen until Q4 2008/Q1 2009. It took almost a year for the economic recession to fully hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 I'm not willing it to happen. I don't want it to happen. If you get your way - hard Brexit - then it will happen. Absolutely guaranteed. That is what people need to fight against, and hopefully they'll wake up to the fact that people who share your views are effectively arguing for economic suicide. No. No it won't. Project fear again. An average 2% tariff on goods and 0% on services cannot devastate an economy. We've already gained a far bigger export advantage through the recent drop in the value of Sterling. What you propose is ridiculous and absolutely impossible. Tone down the language, get specific and be prepared to stand by your predictions. Otherwise nobody listens. Too late for Brexit as we've had the vote now. But next time there's a big national decision to make you may do better. ---------- Post added 08-11-2016 at 23:15 ---------- Recessions don't just happen overnight. Even after 2007/8 the full feedback from the crisis did not happen until Q4 2008/Q1 2009. It took almost a year for the economic recession to fully hit us. What are you predicting now. A lag? Caused by what? Where was that in the Treasury, IMF or other predictions you put so much stock in before the vote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Litotes Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Not enough to make a significant dent in our growth and certainly not enough for the predicted recession. Why can't the remain folk just admit they got it wrong. All this revisionism does them no credit. I'd respect them far more if they could admit a mistake. Some of the less fanatical remainers have to conceded this point. Now I'm waiting on the others. Oh, so how much decline is needed to do that? 0.1. 0.2 0.3 0.4 - care to tell us? Care to tell the BoE? You were just proven wrong in your last statement, why can't you admit that the vote to leave has left us in a worse position at this point in time than if we had stayed in? I am not talking about the future - I don't have a crystal ball any more than you do. Will you admit that the economy is in a worse position now than if we had not voted for Brexit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 No. No it won't. Project fear again. An average 2% tariff on goods and 0% on services cannot devastate an economy. We've already gained a far bigger export advantage through the recent drop in the value of Sterling. What you propose is ridiculous and absolutely impossible. Tone down the language, get specific and be prepared to stand by your predictions. Otherwise nobody listens. Too late for Brexit as we've had the vote now. But next time there's a big national decision to make you may do better. It's not 2%. For the EFTA and EEA countries the average external tariff is between 6% and 8%. I've pointed this out before. On top of a 20%+ fall in the pound that will be devastating to us. You are effectively arguing for a 30% or more rise in the costs of imports. I'm happy to stand my predictions. The only way they won't come true is if we have a soft Brexit or stay in the EU. Hard Brexit is economic suicide. I'm not going to tone that message down because it needs to be heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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