The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[unbeliever]

Oh, so how much decline is needed to do that?

0.1. 0.2 0.3 0.4 - care to tell us? Care to tell the BoE?

 

You were just proven wrong in your last statement, why can't you admit that the vote to leave has left us in a worse position at this point in time than if we had stayed in?

 

I am not talking about the future - I don't have a crystal ball any more than you do.

 

Will you admit that the economy is in a worse position now than if we had not voted for Brexit?

 

Proved wrong is a pretty big stretch. Technically and barely. Within normal fluctuations and as an experimentalists I call that nothing. Still you can have the point if it matters to you that much.

 

I always said that there would be short term uncertainty, a reduced rate of growth and a drop in the value of Sterling. I said that there would be no recession and that there would be substantial long-term benefits.

I stand by all of my predictions and so far I'm doing far better than the Treasury or the IMF.

[Litotes]

No. No it won't. Project fear again. An average 2% tariff on goods and 0% on services cannot devastate an economy. We've already gained a far bigger export advantage through the recent drop in the value of Sterling.

What you propose is ridiculous and absolutely impossible.

 

Tone down the language, get specific and be prepared to stand by your predictions. Otherwise nobody listens. Too late for Brexit as we've had the vote now. But next time there's a big national decision to make you may do better.

 

---------- Post added 08-11-2016 at 23:15 ----------

 

 

What are you predicting now. A lag? Caused by what? Where was that in the Treasury, IMF or other predictions you put so much stock in before the vote?

 

You never explained your figures for 0% on services. We may have benefitted from a short term increase in exports but that we because we were burning through the stock and materials that was purchased preBrexit. As soon as we have to pay for feed stock and materials imported after Brexit, then that short term gain will be quickly wiped out.

 

---------- Post added 08-11-2016 at 23:19 ----------

 

Proved wrong is a pretty big stretch. Technically and barely. Within normal fluctuations and as an experimentalists I call that nothing. Still you can have the point if it matters to you that much.

 

I always said that there would be short term uncertainty, a reduced rate of growth and a drop in the value of Sterling. I said that there would be no recession and that there would be substantial long-term benefits.

I stand by all of my predictions and so far I'm doing far better than the Treasury or the IMF.

 

Will you admit that the economy is in a worse position now than if we had not voted for Brexit?

[Dardandec]

If the Tories come back with a deal that allows EU workers, but not to live; is that what people voted for?

I havnt a clue what the leavers want, neither has Theresa May.

 

Hard Wrexit isn't going to happen so get used to that fact, our economy isn't cabable of withstanding it. Also get used to the fact that the referendum was a simple are we in or out and thats it, there was not other stipulations. It is what it is, and you get what you are given. Reading these threads makes me strongly believe that the people moaning most are not the remainer's but the wrexiter's because you know you are going to get shafted, because what you want is impossible to achieve.

Edited November 8, 2016 by Dardandec

[unbeliever]

It's not 2%. For the EFTA and EEA countries the average external tariff is between 6% and 8%. I've pointed this out before. On top of a 20%+ fall in the pound that will be devastating to us. You are effectively arguing for a 30% or more rise in the costs of imports.

 

I'm happy to stand my predictions. The only way they won't come true is if we have a soft Brexit or stay in the EU. Hard Brexit is economic suicide. I'm not going to tone that message down because it needs to be heard.

 

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7694/CBP-7694.pdf

In 2013, the EU’s trade weighted average MFN tariff was 2.3% for non-agricultural products

Add in agriculture and (I stand corrected) you end up at a little over 3%.

But then as I say services are tariff free.

 

So where did your 6-8% come from?

 

Still feels like you're willing catastrophe to come and it won't cooperate.

 

The predictions you supported before the vote have already failed to come true. You can only attempt to support them by trying to move them retrospectively.

 

---------- Post added 08-11-2016 at 23:32 ----------

 

Hard Wrexit isn't going to happen so get used to that fact, our economy isn't cabable of withstanding it. Also get used to the fact that the referendum was a simple are we in or out and thats it, there was not other stipulations. It is what it is, and you get what you are given. Reading these threads makes me strongly believe that the people moaning most are not the remainer's but the wrexiter's because you know you are going to get shafted, because what you want is impossible to achieve.

 

I don't usually use this term as people I respect have complained about it, but given your tone, I shall be referring to you as the Remoaner.

Hard Brexit is trivial and is in the medium and long term economic interests of the UK. All you have to do is repeal the 1972 European Communities act and it's done. WTO MNF rules kick in the next day. A one line bill in parliament gets it done.

Thee is a clear mandate for hard Brexit because both campaigns in the run up to the referendum told us that's what we were voting on. Both leave and remain and the PM himself told us that we would be exiting the EU internal market and the customs union.

As much as a remoaner might like to deny it, hard Brexit is indeed what we voted for and that it what we shall have. Get used to it.

Edited November 8, 2016 by unbeliever

[Dardandec]

I don't usually use this term as people I respect have complained about it, but given your tone, I shall be referring to you as the Remoaner.

Hard Brexit is trivial and is in the medium and long term economic interests of the UK. All you have to do is repeal the 1972 European Communities act and it's done. WTO MNF rules kick in the next day. A one line bill in parliament gets it done.

Thee is a clear mandate for hard Brexit because both campaigns in the run up to the referendum told us that's what we were voting on. Both leave and remain and the PM himself told us that we would be exiting the EU internal market and the customs union.

As much as a remoaner might like to deny it, hard Brexit is indeed what we voted for and that it what we shall have. Get used to it.

 

You can call me what you want I seriously don't mind. I've said this probably for the third time, I have nothing to lose from Brexit. But you aint gonna get a hard Brexit, you can bury you're head in the sand all day long, this country cant afford it, and the government know it. Leaving or staying in the European union was what was voted for, nothing else.

[unbeliever]

You can call me what you want I seriously don't mind. I've said this probably for the third time, I have nothing to lose from Brexit. But you aint gonna get a hard Brexit, you can bury you're head in the sand all day long, this country cant afford it, and the government know it. Leaving or staying in the European union was what was voted for, nothing else.

 

Hard Brexit makes money in the long term.

Despite our voting to leave, even the remain supporting organisations such as the IMF, expect the UK to be the fastest growing economy in the G7 over the next couple of years.

We can't be the fastest growing and headed for disaster at the same time.

 

You're projecting with the head in the sand stuff. Campaign promises carry weight. Especially when made by both sides. Hard Brexit is coming. Get used to it.

Edited November 8, 2016 by unbeliever

[Dardandec]

Hard Brexit makes money in the long term

 

And what happens in the short term to people who live day to day? Tax hard working people who's wages are already stagnent and have had the knackers squeezed out of their budgets ?

 

Hard Brexit is coming. Get used to it.

 

Yeah right, you wait and see.

[unbeliever]

You never explained your figures for 0% on services. We may have benefitted from a short term increase in exports but that we because we were burning through the stock and materials that was purchased preBrexit. As soon as we have to pay for feed stock and materials imported after Brexit, then that short term gain will be quickly wiped out.

 

Simply that under WTO MFN rules, service are not subject to tariffs..

 

 

Will you admit that the economy is in a worse position now than if we had not voted for Brexit?

 

Yes.

Short term pain (such as it is), long term gain.

 

---------- Post added 09-11-2016 at 00:07 ----------

 

And what happens in the short term to people who live day to day? Tax hard working people who's wages are already stagnent and have had the knackers squeezed out of their budgets ?

 

The effect is not large enough to be a serious threat to their welfare.

[tinfoilhat]

Simply that under WTO MFN rules, service are not subject to tariffs..

 

 

 

Yes.

Short term pain (such as it is), long term gain.

 

Proper gain, or just sovereignty? Does sovereignty always equal gain? Genuine question.

[unbeliever]

Proper gain, or just sovereignty? Does sovereignty always equal gain? Genuine question.

 

 

You can't separate them completely. I think that an independent UK government will make better decisions on matters which are currently EU competencies.

I also think that being inside a customs union with the world's only declining trade bloc is bad for us.