Marine le pen.. another nail to the left ?

[hauxwell]

If there is more terror attacks in France from now until the elections next year then I think Marie le pen will definitely win. France is still on high alert and a lot of people in France are aware of this.

I certainly don't think you can take notice of opinion polls these days.

[L00b]

Juppé will win next year. Some may want to check his electoral pledges about Calais.

[Petminder]

He'd have got more change out the likes of le Pen and merkles replacement (if there is one).

 

He was probably hoping that a vote to stay would given le Pen less chance of winning.

[Guest sibon]

If it helps remove left wing governments then im all for it.

 

You could argue that many of the policies of the FN are pretty hard-left policies (and many commentators do). So a vote for Le Pen is a vote for socialism. That's why I suggested that Pretty Big didn't have much of a grasp on their policies.

 

I'll withdraw now and leave you to research your new-found affinity for the far left:)

 

Welcome, Comrade.

Edited November 20, 2016 by sibon

[pretty_big]

You could argue that many of the policies of the FN are pretty hard-left policies (and many commentators do). So a vote for Le Pen is a vote for socialism. That's why I suggested that Pretty Big didn't have much of a grasp on their policies.

 

I'll withdraw now and leave you to research your new-found affinity for the far left:)

 

Welcome, Comrade.

 

If you've half an interest in politics you'll know who she is and what she's about hence that's why I started a thread about her.

[Guest sibon]

If you've half an interest in politics you'll know who she is and what she's about hence that's why I started a thread about her.

 

If you were half-serious about debating stuff, you would have read the post that you quoted more carefully, before responding.

[Tomjames]

Nah she wont win.

[Harrystottle]

Juppé will win next year. Some may want to check his electoral pledges about Calais.

 

Why do you reckon Juppe will win L00b?

[Berberis]

The EU will give the UK the worst possible terms for Brexit to dissuade the French from voting FN

 

The French Presidential election is next year. Brexit wont be triggered until the 31st March at the earliest and then we have 2 years worth of negotiations.

[L00b]

Why do you reckon Juppe will win L00b?

The left of any flavour hasn't got a prayer after Hollande's stint. Think "the Gordon Brown" effect, time it by 10 or 100.

 

The vast bulk of the electorate straddles the centre and will go centre right at both the 1st and 2nd round, by choice (disillusionment at left politics) or coercion (to keep the FN out). And if by coercion, significantly more so at the 2nd round.

 

France operates on a straightforward universal vote, unlike the US where it was possible for Trump to win on a technicality (collegial vote, which he won, instead of universal vote, which he would have lost), so whoever gets to the 2nd round standing for the centre right will win, whether Marine makes it to the 2nd round or not (i.e. if the centre left candidate does, instead of her...though I can't see Macron getting there, he's too 'un-left' and hasn't got enough party/party machinery backing by far).

 

I wasn't expecting Fillon to do as well as he did, granted. But there hasn't been that much of a campaign (over time) for the centre right nomination. Juppé is longer-established in French politics and with a better track record than Fillon, I still think he can wing it by May 2017 (especially now that Sarko has been kicked safely into touch, and notwithstanding his call to this followers to back Fillon - that last one IMHO might turn into a kiss of death for Fillon). That's all if Juppé still stands of course. He could well withdraw to let Fillon have a clear run, depending on how pre-election politics go.

 

For all of the cleansing and polishing Marine has done over the past few years, the FN is still a political turd to the average French voter, as a highly-toxic political brand after decades of association with the arch-type xenophobia, racism and Holocaust-denying peddled by Le Pen Senior. If she had renamed the party some years back, e.g. something-or-other-Republican, she'd have a much better chance. But she hasn't, so that's that.

Edited November 21, 2016 by L00b