Marine le pen.. another nail to the left ?

[Harrystottle]

So, Fillon won the primaries.

 

She had a chance with Juppé, because he's a liberal straight out of the Blair/Cameron mould.

 

But with Fillon, who is dyed blue catholic conservative, she's got no chance now.

 

Anyone however slightly left of Le Pen (along the entire politics spectrum), who would have voted for her for her policies and/or in protest, at the 1st and/or 2nd round, will be voting for him instead. No 'Front National' stigma attached to Fillon, y'see.

 

I'm glad I don't live on the British South coast

 

Melanchon looks an interesting character L00b, I've been reading that he may be the left's representative in the Presidential election. How is he regarded in France?

[L00b]

Melanchon looks an interesting character L00b, I've been reading that he may be the left's representative in the Presidential election. How is he regarded in France?

In a nutshell, he is France's Corbyn.

 

In the popularity stakes, he'd definitely win it over Hollande (5% approval rating, might even be 4%...if the man has any shred of morality and decency, he'll not stand again, even for the primaries), maybe over Valls as well (Mélanchon and him regularly trade places in polls), but not over Macron (Tony Blair-like, on the left with centre right-ish ideas).

 

And none of them has any realistic chance of winning in 2017 anyway.

[Harrystottle]

OK L00b, thanks for that.

If it does end up with Fillon v Le Pen I suppose Fillon will win. But if he is serious about axing half a million public sector jobs then I reckon there's half a million votes there he won't be getting, so it might be closer than 66/33?

 

If he brings Thatcherism to France it will be a tremendous culture shock, I should think.

[L00b]

But if he is serious about axing half a million public sector jobs then I reckon there's half a million votes there he won't be getting, so it might be closer than 66/33?

The voting pool in France is at least 34 millions (total votes were a smidge over 34m at the 2012 elections).

 

Half a million votes is 1.4% of 34m voters.

 

Since those who face the "Fillon axe" don't know that they in particular face the axe, let's assume that all turkeys State employees vote against Christmas.

 

The latest 2016 government report puts the total number of State employees (everything included, inc. health, local government, etc.) at 5.5m, so that's 16% of 34m voters.

 

On a presumed 66/33 vote split, the 33% plus all State employees amounts to 49% (assuming that none of the State employees were going to vote Marine...and being French, I know that a sizeable contingent of the Police, Gendarmes and CRS would vote for her come what may so subtract them from the 49%).

 

That's still shy of the 50.1% absolute majority required.

If he brings Thatcherism to France it will be a tremendous culture shock, I should think.

To anything state-run, absolutely. But objectively...it's sorely needed, has been for decades.

 

Don't book your 2017 holidays there yet, is my advice

Edited November 30, 2016 by L00b

[Zamo]

So, Fillon won the primaries.

 

She had a chance with Juppé, because he's a liberal straight out of the Blair/Cameron mould.

 

But with Fillon, who is dyed blue catholic conservative, she's got no chance now.

 

Anyone however slightly left of Le Pen (along the entire politics spectrum), who would have voted for her for her policies and/or in protest, at the 1st and/or 2nd round, will be voting for him instead. No 'Front National' stigma attached to Fillon, y'see.

 

I'm glad I don't live on the British South coast

 

It may be too big a gap for the Front National to close this time but what about next time? It strikes me that Fallon probably represents the last chance for a mainstream political party to address the concerns that are driving support for FN.

 

Can he really get immigrants to integrate and can he stop the Islamic terrorism (a noticeable difference within 5 years)? Can he really halt growing intolerance as migrants flow across the borders adding social and economic pressures whilst also implementing austerity measures? I am very sceptical and think France (and other nations across the West) is simply kicking a problem down the road an will eventually have to pay the piper for all the broken promises... and the price is going to be very high.

[L00b]

It may be too big a gap for the Front National to close this time but what about next time?<...>

Well, as your post exceeds the range of my crystal ball by intergalactic mileage, can I invite you to reconsider the issue afresh and ask me again nearer 2022?

 

In the alternative, ask someone else.

 

---------- Post added 02-12-2016 at 08:45 ----------

 

So, Hollande is officially out. I suppose that shows the man has at least some integrity.

 

My guess is that Valls will now have a stab at it, but I doubt he'll beat either Mélanchon or Macron in the primaries.

Edited December 2, 2016 by L00b