The end of the EU?

[andyofborg]

The big problem for the EU is that Italy may well vote to leave the Euro. Their bond rates are going up and there is real pressure on Italian finances they may leave the Euro to survive. It could lead to Italy leaving the EU and it wouldn't take much for Netherlands to follow suit.

 

i'm not sure italy would vote to leave the euro, especially as I understand the situation they couldn't do it via a referendum without changing their constitution.

[*_ash_*]

i'm not sure italy would vote to leave the euro, especially as I understand the situation they couldn't do it via a referendum without changing their constitution.

 

Yes. A nice tactic to keep people in the [modern] Communist EU. Get them onto the Euro.

 

Thank goodness we stayed out of the farce. Most Europeans are stuck with the EU's failed ideology, or threatened with being bust.

[aa2900]

i'm not sure italy would vote to leave the euro, especially as I understand the situation they couldn't do it via a referendum without changing their constitution.

 

I'm not sure whether the Italians would vote to leave the Euro either. However they are very likely to elect a government who would, and as Italian bond yields continue to rise so does the pressure on the government to do something radical with the currency.

 

I'm not sure that the Eurozone can afford a Greek style bale out with a country the size of Italy.

[Jeffrey Shaw]

The end of the EU is a distinct possibility, so BREXIT negotiations may prove to be irrelevant.

 

One thing for sure is the remaining 27 members governments are in no rush to give their citizens an in /out EU referendum, like us fortunate British citizens have recently had. I wonder why other EU Governments, don't wish to give their citizens, referendums on whether to remain or leave the EU ?

It's also why Scotland would never be accepted as an independent EU member.

France/Spain/Italy would fear giving succour to their own respective regional breakaway hopefuls.

[aa2900]

There will also soon be another fracture in the EU. At some point the negotiators who are telling the UK we can't have free access to the single market will be having to explain to millions of their citizens why they are losing their jobs because they no longer have free access to sell in the UK.

[Gamston]

It's also why Scotland would never be accepted as an independent EU member.

France/Spain/Italy would fear giving succour to their own respective regional breakaway hopefuls.

That fact seems to be conveniently hidden under the kilts, of those still dreaming of Scottish Independence.

 

---------- Post added 07-12-2016 at 17:59 ----------

 

There will also soon be another fracture in the EU. At some point the negotiators who are telling the UK we can't have free access to the single market will be having to explain to millions of their citizens why they are losing their jobs because they no longer have free access to sell in the UK.

And the German motor vehicle industry, will be at the front of the queue lobbying, for continued tarrif free access to the UK market, which just happens to be their biggest export market by volumne.

[andyofborg]

There will also soon be another fracture in the EU. At some point the negotiators who are telling the UK we can't have free access to the single market will be having to explain to millions of their citizens why they are losing their jobs because they no longer have free access to sell in the UK.

 

at the end of the day we will have some sort of access to the single market, however. if we want the sort of access to the single market we have now then all we have to do is accept all four of the four freedoms, the jurisdiction of the eu court of justice and make a contribution to the eu budget.

 

---------- Post added 07-12-2016 at 20:54 ----------

 

And the German motor vehicle industry, will be at the front of the queue lobbying, for continued tarrif free access to the UK market, which just happens to be their biggest export market by volumne.

 

people buy german cars because they like them and i suspect that most will continue to buy them so unless you are advocating cutting all link with the eu then they wont lose much of their market.

 

They would, no doubt, be sad if they lost a significant market but German manufacturers are quite committed to the EU, so i doubt they would lobby for a deal at any cost.

 

we should also consider that the over the last 40 years, multi country supply chains have been put together, particularly in the motor industry and a lot of them involve uk companies, who will be stuffed if we get a bad deal on exit from the EU

Edited December 7, 2016 by andyofborg

[Gamston]

people buy german cars because they like them and i suspect that most will continue to buy them so unless you are advocating cutting all link with the eu then they wont lose much of their market.

 

They would, no doubt, be sad if they lost a significant market but German manufacturers are quite committed to the EU, so i doubt they would lobby for a deal at any cost.

 

we should also consider that the over the last 40 years, multi country supply chains have been put together, particularly in the motor industry and a lot of them involve uk companies, who will be stuffed if we get a bad deal on exit from the EU

You clearly don't think lke a businessman and are ignoring the fact that the UK is the German Motor industries biggest export market by volume and only behind America in revenue. The German Motor Industry, will suffer more than any other country, if tariff free motor vehicle trading is not continued between the UK and EU. The global export market for motor vehicles is second to only crude oil in global value. Germany are the World's largest exporter of Motor vehicles.

 

You are correct, there will be many sad Germans, if they can't negotiate continued tariff free access to the lucrative UK market.

[hauxwell]

You clearly don't think lke a businessman and are ignoring the fact that the UK is the German Motor industries biggest export market by volume and only behind America in revenue. The German Motor Industry, will suffer more than any other country, if tariff free motor vehicle trading is not continued between the UK and EU. The global export market for motor vehicles is second to only crude oil in global value. Germany are the World's largest exporter of Motor vehicles.

 

You are correct, there will be many sad Germans, if they can't negotiate continued tariff free access to the lucrative UK market.

 

That is what Dave Davis said when I went to see him at the Sage in Gateshead, he was given a talk alongside Farage and a few Labour MP's who also supported the leave campaign, a week before the EU leave vote.

Davis said take a look at how many German cars there are on our roads. If Merkel was to put tariffs on German Cars being exported to the UK she would have a lot of people from the German Car Industry banging on her door. I do hope Davis is right.

[I1L2T3]

That is what Dave Davis said when I went to see him at the Sage in Gateshead, he was given a talk alongside Farage and a few Labour MP's who also supported the leave campaign, a week before the EU leave vote.

Davis said take a look at how many German cars there are on our roads. If Merkel was to put tariffs on German Cars being exported to the UK she would have a lot of people from the German Car Industry banging on her door. I do hope Davis is right.

 

He won't be right. The Germans will still have a market for their vehicles. All of them practically are mid range or high end and the people making discretionary decisions to purchase them can most likely afford a hit, especially given that purchase costs are usually spread over years and there is more use of leasing now. The financing model will just evolve to cushion extra costs for consumers.