Labour MP Jamie Reed quitting Parliament

[El Cid]

The Conservatives will probably put up some creep who will tow the party line which at the moment is very obscure but they will want to sound authoritative and 'Brexit means Brexit' just won't wash.

Labour will probably avoid saying much and push it onto the Tory candidate after all they are the ones negotiating.

 

 

Very clever to select a doctor recently, most people trust doctors.

[hush]

Yes I do. But the local Labour party is not reflective of the voters.

And just what is Corbyn's position on Brexit?

 

I agree that the Labour Party is not reflective of the voters. But it is the Labour Party that picks the candidate. It is then the electorate that gets to pass judgement on that choice.

 

I have no idea what Corbyn's position is on Brexit as it seems to change from day to day. But I do know what his position is on Trident and nuclear issues in general, and no doubt those views will be discussed widely on the run up to the vote.

[Ridgewalk]

Perhaps we'll see the first evidence of the long trumpeted UKIP Northern breakthrough

 

---------- Post added 22-12-2016 at 14:36 ----------

 

Yes I do. But the local Labour party is not reflective of the voters.

And just what is Corbyn's position on Brexit?

 

He's committed Labour to supporting Article 50 whenever the Govt decides it's going to trigger it. Difficult to take any position when the govt. haven't decided what position they're taking

[hush]

Perhaps we'll see the first evidence of the long trumpeted UKIP Northern breakthrough

 

---------- Post added 22-12-2016 at 14:36 ----------

 

 

He's committed Labour to supporting Article 50 whenever the Govt decides it's going to trigger it. Difficult to take any position when the govt. haven't decided what position they're taking

 

It seems to be more about Corbyn's stance on nuclear weapons than Brexit, but interesing non the less.

Labour won with a healthy 6.5% majority in 2015. If that is overturned it is a disaster for them. I just wonder how many more of the 171 who passed a no confidence motion in Jeremy Corbyn are also going to jump before they are pushed.

[blake]

Labour won with a healthy 6.5% majority in 2015.

 

yes it's not a marginal seat at all, although I noticed somebody in the Guardian referred to it as such this morning. A comfortable 6.5% win in an election that Labour lost badly means that it is not a marginal seat.

 

it's a Labour seat and it's never been anything other than a Labour seat in living memory. It's not the safest Labour seat there is, but it's a Labour seat regardless and it's NOT a marginal. It's like Grimsby and a few other northern British seats. Labour always win it and they never lost it even in the disastrous 1980s elections. Labour never win these kind of seats by really big margins, but they do always win them, and the Tories have never had a sniff at them before. If Labour do lose this by-election, and I think they will, then yes it will be a disaster for them.

[hush]

yes it's not a marginal seat at all, although I noticed somebody in the Guardian referred to it as such this morning. A comfortable 6.5% win in an election that Labour lost badly means that it is not a marginal seat.

 

it's a Labour seat and it's never been anything other than a Labour seat in living memory. It's not the safest Labour seat there is, but it's a Labour seat regardless and it's NOT a marginal. It's like Grimsby and a few other northern British seats. Labour always win it and they never lost it even in the disastrous 1980s elections. Labour never win these kind of seats by really big margins, but they do always win them, and the Tories have never had a sniff at them before. If Labour do lose this by-election, and I think they will, then yes it will be a disaster for them.

 

The disaster has already happened. There are still about 170 Labour MPs who have passed a motion of no confidence in their leader. That is the guy who in 2020 they will be expected to put forward as Prime Minister.

So something is going to have to give. Those MPs could wait for the new membership to deselct them. They could wait for the boundary charges to displace them, or they could go out at the top of their game and look for another job. That is a lot easier to do when you are a sitting MP than it is after you have lost the seat.

I'm thinking that Mr Reed might be the first of quite a few who are about to force bi-elections between now and 2018.

Is any seat a safe Labour seat these days?

[blake]

it is the most interesting by-election for a while.

 

only either Labour or the Tories can win this, but governments almost never make by-election gains, you have to go way back to Mitcham and Mordern in 1982 in the SDP days to find the last time that happened and unlike Copeland today, that really WAS a marginal. So history suggests it very unlikely that the Tories will win. But with Labour being in the godawful mess they are, there's no doubt that the Tories CAN win.

 

If Labour do manage to hang on, they'll claim it as being this great victory when it is a seat they should always expect to win anyway. Especially when it's a by-election and they are in opposition.

 

it will be interesting to see how many troops the Tories actually throw into the battle, because even with their small majority that they would like to bolster, I'm not even all that sure if the Tories really want to win it. What they want is for Labour to continue to not do well in elections but they don't want them to do too disastrously, otherwise something really bad for the Tories might just happen before 2020 and Corbyn may cease being Labour leader which is the last thing they want.

[banjodeano]

The disaster has already happened. There are still about 170 Labour MPs who have passed a motion of no confidence in their leader. That is the guy who in 2020 they will be expected to put forward as Prime Minister.

So something is going to have to give. Those MPs could wait for the new membership to deselct them. They could wait for the boundary charges to displace them, or they could go out at the top of their game and look for another job. That is a lot easier to do when you are a sitting MP than it is after you have lost the seat.

I'm thinking that Mr Reed might be the first of quite a few who are about to force bi-elections between now and 2018.

Is any seat a safe Labour seat these days?

 

And a significant number of these said MP's realised the error of their ways. and asked or were cajoled to rejoin the cabinet. they are now actively promoting Corbyns message, i think we can all agree, he won that battle.

Democracy is at work, and some MP's realise that they may have to be re elected due to boundary changes, i suppose that some of them have worked out, that they are not quite as popular or untouchable as they thought they were..

[hush]

And a significant number of these said MP's realised the error of their ways. and asked or were cajoled to rejoin the cabinet. they are now actively promoting Corbyns message, i think we can all agree, he won that battle.

Democracy is at work, and some MP's realise that they may have to be re elected due to boundary changes, i suppose that some of them have worked out, that they are not quite as popular or untouchable as they thought they were..

:hihi:

I think we can all agree the Tories won the battle. I'm not sure what planet you inhabit but the Labour MPs have not all swung in to support Corbyn. They are fully aware that the local Corbynistas in their party are trying to undermine them and get them deselected. They are working out how to get rid of Corbyn or how to exit the parliamentary party in a way that benefit them. It seems Jamie Reed is the first. We probably won't have to wait too long before the rest start to follow.

 

I suppose it all boils down to how many of your party's MPs can defect or resign before you stop looking at this as a victory. As a matter of interest how many Labour MPs do you expect there to be in Westminster in 2021? The polls seem to suggest between 150-180 would be a reasonable estimate.

Edited December 24, 2016 by hush

[blake]

just about all of Labour's opponents, want Corbyn to keep to his job. Not just Labour's principal opponents, the Tories, some of whom are probably ready to put on a pair of sunglasses and a hat, in a bid to make people think that they aren't Tories, to campaign for Corbyn to help to make him keep his job.

 

but it's not just the Tories. UKIP, and the LibDems too, also want, at all costs, for Corbyn to keep his job.

 

The Scots Nats couldn't care less. They think they've beaten Labour anyway. They couldn't care less, whatever asshole is Labour leader. It could be Corbyn. It could be somebody else. Why should they care.

 

the Greens, and to a somewhat lesser extent, Plaid Cymru, are the only exception. Out of all of them, they are the only ones that want Jeremy Corbyn to take a walk on Hampstead Heath or one day alight a London bus, and never be seen again like Harold Holt, the incredible disappearing Australian Prime Minister.

 

everybody else, out of all of the Labour party's opponents, wants Jeremy Corbyn to be around forever and they are wondering considering he is pushing 70, if there really is an elixir of life that will enable him to live, and to remain leader-for-life of the Labour party, for the next 30 years.