More 0 hours workers than ever..

[Obelix]

No, I said your survey was unrepresentative. And gave possible reasons why...It's like any 'survey'...Only gives the results of the people questioned, which isn't comprehensive, or necessarily accurate. Haven't you noticed other 'polls' which were plain wrong in the last year or so?

 

Do you understand how such surveys are conducted and what the margin of error on a 2000 person vs whole cohort study actually is?

[sgtkate]

Do you understand how such surveys are conducted and what the margin of error on a 2000 person vs whole cohort study actually is?

 

Similar to the polls that told us we'd vote to remain in the EU or that Hilary would now be president?

[PeteMorris]

Sacking someone for joining a trade union is indeed illegal. Giving them no hours of work isn't. Nor is sacking them because you don't like their nose even though you've really sacked them because they joined a union.

 

Quite.....

[Obelix]

Similar to the polls that told us we'd vote to remain in the EU or that Hilary would now be president?

 

Do you understand how such surveys are conducted and what the margin of error on a 2000 person vs whole cohort study actually is?

 

It's a simple question but people seem to keep dodging it.

[PeteMorris]

Similar to the polls that told us we'd vote to remain in the EU or that Hilary would now be president?

 

And again...Quite...

[Obelix]

And again...Quite...

 

Do you understand how such surveys are conducted and what the margin of error on a 2000 person vs whole cohort study actually is?

 

It's a simple question but people seem to keep dodging it. Why? Perhaps because it would undermine your argument?

[PeteMorris]

Do you understand how such surveys are conducted and what the margin of error on a 2000 person vs whole cohort study actually is?

 

It's a simple question but people seem to keep dodging it.

 

So how come 'polls' of recent times have been so horribly wrong?...Or didn't you notice?

 

Brexit, Trump, General Election to name just a few of the most obvious ones.

[unbeliever]

Please don't threaten me. It's most unbecoming.

 

No, I said your survey was unrepresentative. And gave possible reasons why...It's like any 'survey'...Only gives the results of the people questioned, which isn't comprehensive, or necessarily accurate. Haven't you noticed other 'polls' which were plain wrong in the last year or so?

 

There is a limited margin for error in all such surveys. Far smaller than you are suggesting. Usually the 99% confidence limit is a few percent.

 

The margin for error on your anecdote, a survey of one with no control sample, and subject to reporting bias, is basically 100%.

[sgtkate]

Do you understand how such surveys are conducted and what the margin of error on a 2000 person vs whole cohort study actually is?

 

It's a simple question but people seem to keep dodging it.

 

No I don't but I fail to see the relevance. Even if you'd asked every single person in the UK which way they'd vote in the referendum you'd still likely have got the wrong answer.

 

Pete's point is that the ones who are unhappy and being exploited aren't likely to have been included in the poll. Whether that's the case or not I don't know and there is no way of finding out.

 

The key question is, would getting rid of ZHCs make things better for the majority? Yes or no. Or would the harm done to some people be offset by the good to others? I doubt it, to be honest. I think like others have said, that ZHCs are the symptom not the cause, the cause is crap employers so perhaps we should focus on changing employment law across the board so employees can't be abused so easily. I'd say someone on a ZHC is still in a better place legally than someone working cash in hand with no contract at all...

[cgksheff]

That's the same data I linked to in post #191, only you've skipped the explanatory BBC news article.

 

No. It isn't.

 

You didn't link to any data.

 

You posted a link to a BBC article that referred to an unidentified CIPD survey of 2013.

 

Probably this one:

https://www.cipd.co.uk/Images/zero-hours-contracts_2013-myth-reality_tcm18-10710.pdf

 

Unfortunately whatever is on the FT link is behind a subscription barrier.

 

The thread has now questioned the merits and authors of the poll.

 

What is now available is the detail of who conducted the survey, their methodology and an actual report of 2016.

 

The methodology of the 2013 report is below (my apologies for not putting this in the earlier post .. but it isn't hard to find):

 

The research was based on findings from the CIPD Labour Market Outlook, produced in partnership with SuccessFactors, an SAP company and the CIPD Employee Outlook, produced in partnership with Halogen.

1 Labour Market Outlook (LMO)

Survey method

The fieldwork for the Labour Market Outlook survey is managed by YouGov plc. The survey is conducted using the bespoke YouGov online system administered to members of the YouGov plc panel who have agreed to take part in surveys, as well as to CIPD members. The survey is based on responses from more than 1,000 HR professionals. All respondents have HR responsibility within their organisation, which may or may not be their sole and primary function within their organisation. The sample is targeted to senior business leaders of senior officer level and above. An email was sent to each respondent from the YouGov panel, who are selected at random from the base sample according to the sample definition, inviting them to take part in the survey and providing a link to the survey. Each member of the CIPD sample is invited to complete the survey. Respondents are given three weeks to reply and reminder emails are sent to boost response rate (subject to the CIPD’s re-contact policy).

Weighting

The quarterly LMO survey is sampled from the CIPD membership and through the YouGov panel of HR professionals. The data is weighted to be representative of the UK public and private sector business population by size of employer and sector. Rim weighting is applied using targets on size and sector, drawn from business population estimates for the UK and regions in 2012.

The findings on employers’ use of zero-hours contracts are based on data from the autumn 2013 Labour Market Outlook survey. See Tables 35 and 36 for a breakdown by size and sector.

Method for calculating the number of zero-hours contracts

The calculations used to provide an estimate of the proportion and the number of zero-hours contract (ZHC) workers in the UK workforce has been based upon combining data from the two most recent waves of the LMO (summer and autumn 2013).

In each survey a question was asked to identify the proportion of LMO employers who employ workers on zero-hours contracts. The following questions were used:

• summer 2013 – Do you currently employ anybody on a zero-hours contract?

• autumn 2013 – Does your organisation use people on zero-hours contracts?

A zero-hours contract is an agreement between two parties that one may be asked to perform work for the other, but there is no set minimum number of hours. The contract will provide what pay the individual will get if they do work and will deal with the circumstances in which work maybe offered (and, possibly, turned down). Source: CIPD Labour Market Outlook, produced in partnership with SuccessFactors.

Following this, those employers who identified they use zero-hours contracts were asked:

• What proportion of your organisation’s workforce is on a zero-hours contract?

Analysis of the data from these questions has provided an estimate on the likely proportion of the UK workforce that may be employed on zero-hours contracts.

• All figures are weighted to be representative of the UK business population as per the weighting scheme used in the autumn 2013 LMO.

• The combined data file has been de-duped to remove any respondents who completed both the summer and autumn surveys to avoid double counting. Where responses were received to both zero-hour questions, the most recent (autumn) data is included.

• The size bands have been combined (that is, 2–49 / 50–249 / 250–999 / 10,000+) to produce more robust base sizes within these groupings.

2 Employee Outlook

The CIPD has commissioned a twice-yearly survey among UK employees (including sole traders) to identify their opinions and attitudes towards working life today. YouGov conducted the latest survey for the CIPD of 2,918 UK employees in September 2013. This survey was administered to members of the YouGov plc panel of more than 350,000 individuals who have agreed to take part in surveys. The sample was selected and weighted to be representative of the UK workforce in relation to sector and size, by industry type and full-time/part-time working and by gender. Size of organisation was classified in the following way: sole trader (one-person business), micro business (2–9), small business (10–49), medium (50–249) and large (more than 250).

Emails were sent to panellists selected at random from the base sample. The email invited them to take part in a survey and provided a generic survey link. Once a panel member clicked on the link, they were sent to the survey that they were required for according to the sample definition and quotas. The sample profile is normally derived from census data or, if not available from the census, from industry-accepted data. Net scores refer to the proportion of people agreeing with a statement minus those disagreeing.

How the zero-hours sample was identified

As requested by the CIPD, the most recent wave of the Employee Outlook included a boost of zero-hours workers. These workers were identified through the YouGov all-panel screener and then sent an invitation to complete the Employee Outlook survey. These respondents answered all questions on the survey and not solely those questions directed at zero-hours workers.

On a sample of 2,000 working adults, the incidence of zero-hours workers is approximately 10%, providing a total of approximately 200 zero-hours workers. YouGov doubled this figure by boosting zero-hour workers identified through the YouGov all-panel screener. The total number of zero-hours workers achieved after the boost was 479.

The question used to identify these zero-hours workers on the YouGov panel was as follows:

• How many hours a week are you contracted to work for your PRIMARY employer?

o I have no minimum contracted hours (that is, a zero-hours contract)

o 1–8 hours

o 9–16 hours

o 17–24 hours

o 25–32 hours

o 33–40 hours

o 41–48 hours

o 49–56 hours

o More than 56 hours

o Don’t know

Edited March 6, 2017 by cgksheff