The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)

[Carlinate]

I hope some of the Brexit supporters will man-up and say they made a bad call.

 

---------- Post added 24-04-2017 at 11:12 ----------

 

 

 

That won't happen, it will be claimed that it's all down to the EU punishing us for leaving.

 

It doesn't appear to have occurred to some that we have chosen to place ourselves in competition to the EU.

 

We will therefore be negotiated with from that position. It's not a case of punishing nor of revenge it's simply a case of the negotiators obtaining the best deal for their particular group.

 

In some cases that will result in a favourable deal for both parties but in others we will wind up with something less than what we currently have.

 

That's entirely to be expected and anyone who thought differently was being naive in the extreme.

 

At the end of the day it's business and should be conducted in a business like manner, that means that everyone is looking for the best deal with no ill will involved.

 

The thing is that the bigger organization holds the best hand of cards and invariably obtains the best deal. We are not the big organization in these negotiations.

[Puggie]

I hope some of the Brexit supporters will man-up and say they made a bad call.

 

Absolutely not. There's no such thing as instant return on investment. We are fully paid up members of the EU until March 2019.

 

Ask me in 5-10 years time if it was a bad call.

[tinfoilhat]

If Italy can begin to contribute. If Greece manages to pull herself out of the crapper. If the rest of the Union can manage to cling on and make the reforms it desperately needs to (the UK leaving may kick start this). If they start addressing problems that they no are affecting societies throughout Europe then there's every chance that things will go well.

 

 

Lot of ifs in there.

[L00b]

If Italy can begin to contribute.

Not anytime soon.

If Greece manages to pull herself out of the crapper.

Not anytime soon.

If the rest of the Union can manage to cling on and make the reforms it desperately needs to (the UK leaving may kick start this).

More hopeful about that, and looking forward to evidence of bootstrapping at the 27 April Council meet.

If they start addressing problems that they no are affecting societies throughout Europe.

They ('the EU) can only address commercial and financial problems directly, not societal problems (those, the EU tries to address indirectly, through targeted development/redevelopment funds).

[NigelFargate]

That won't happen, it will be claimed that it's all down to the EU punishing us for leaving.

 

It doesn't appear to have occurred to some that we have chosen to place ourselves in competition to the EU.

 

Competition with the EU should be good for both parties. It might provide the EU with the stimulus it needs to enter into trade deals with the big players in the global trading system (whereas up until now its performance in this regard has been decidedly poor). The UK is still likely to be more fleet-footed than the EU, but the impact on the EU could well be positive (providing it addresses some of the key obstacle of bureaucratic rigidity and over-complexity in its decisional processes).

[Carlinate]

Competition with the EU should be good for both parties. It might provide the EU with the stimulus it needs to enter into trade deals with the big players in the global trading system (whereas up until now its performance in this regard has been decidedly poor). The UK is still likely to be more fleet-footed than the EU, but the impact on the EU could well be positive (providing it addresses some of the key obstacle of bureaucratic rigidity and over-complexity in its decisional processes).

 

Where exactly has this fleet footedness being hiding itself to date?

 

Currently Germany, France and the Netherlands are all more successful in the exporting business than we are.

 

They are also all EU members, so what exactly has been stopping us and how are we going to improve following Brexit when we will have less to offer in terms of market size as an incentive?

[NigelFargate]

Where exactly has this fleet footedness being hiding itself to date?

 

Currently Germany, France and the Netherlands are all more successful in the exporting business than we are.

 

They are also all EU members, so what exactly has been stopping us and how are we going to improve following Brexit when we will have less to offer in terms of market size as an incentive?

 

I was specifically addressing the ability to negotiate trade deals.

 

The three countries you mention above have all benefited in terms of their export performance from a low valued currency (relative to the probably value of their national currencies, if they were still in existence). However, the effect of the euro on many other eurozone states has been dire).

Edited April 24, 2017 by NigelFargate

[L00b]

I was specifically addressing the ability to negotiate trade deals.

An ability that has yet to be demonstrated by the UK, let it be said.

 

I understand that Messers Fox and Davis are still dealing with (expensive) recruitment problems (old article, but issue remains burning currently).

 

They'd better get their skates on: the curtain lifts and the show begins in 2 weeks or so

[sgtkate]

Absolutely not. There's no such thing as instant return on investment. We are fully paid up members of the EU until March 2019.

 

Ask me in 5-10 years time if it was a bad call.

 

Why have you misquoted me? I was saying in the rest of my post about after Brexit is done and dusted and settles down, why would that not apply to the Brexiters too? Are you just out to make anyone who voted remain try to look like bad losers or something?

[Carlinate]

I was specifically addressing the ability to negotiate trade deals.

 

The three countries you mention above have all benefited in terms of their export performance from a low valued currency (relative to the probably value of their national currencies, if they were still in existence). However, the effect of the euro on many other eurozone states has been dire).

 

The ability to negotiate trade deals isn't hampered by being part of the EU as demonstrated by the success of those countries.

 

As regarding currency values the UK is completely in control of its own currency and therefore should be in a position to run rings around countries tied into a common currency.

 

Export success has more to do with manufacturing or providing services that are desired by other countries and the quality and quantity of those products.

 

Germany for instance produces high quality engineering products and even if those items are subjected to increased tariffs the impact will be less than that on other items which can be replaced with an equivalent from another producer.

 

What proportion of our exports are in the same category?