The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)

[monkey104]

[/b]

 

I appreciated it though.

 

Thank you for your input p.

[chalga]

Not really moot though is it, the pressure is the same in or out and who's to say that, that pressure won't force decisions elsewhere. The difference for the UK is that they will be in a position to do something about it without the constraints of a Union. The bigger club is it's own worst enemy in these situations, any talk of turning away migrants is met with anger, possible repercussions. It's akin to having someone telling you how to run your own household.

 

Right,it's not like there aren't other people from outside the club saying roughly similar things:

 

 

Tim Martin, the founder of pub chain JD Wetherspoon and a vocal Brexit campaigner, said Britain could not afford to put the brake on immigration. He called for a special deal for EU workers which took advantage of its proximity compared with countries such as India and China.

“For the UK to be a successful country and economy in the next 20, 30, 50 years, we need a gradually rising population and that will need some type of reasonably controlled immigration. If we don’t get it I think the economy will tend to go backwards,” he said.

[L00b]

Not really moot though is it, the pressure is the same in or out and who's to say that, that pressure won't force decisions elsewhere.

It is moot in the Brexit context, which is the proper context for my earlier reply to Skylinephoto's #2109, which you quoted: that pressure concerns only EU immigrants in the UK, because the UK has decided to exit the EU.

 

Without Brexit, EU immigrants would not be under any pressure to consider acquiring UK citizenship as a means of guaranteeing their right to remain here.

 

Likewise if the UK government had guaranteed their rights.

 

As Brexit looks sure to happen and as the government hasn't guaranteed anything, then objectively, right now, they have no other choice than to either (i) continue to wing it or (ii) be proactive with either (iia) leaving or (iib) applying for citizenship (since there is no existing provision for a visa for them).

 

So your parallel with applying for citizenship France and other (EU) countries is moot (but, I realise lately and readily concede, save as to UK immigrants already there, who face the exact same (i)(ii)(iia)(iib) choices above over there).

 

That pressure is already having measurable consequences. Nothing partisan about this, it's just an objective statement of fact.

Edited April 25, 2017 by L00b

[silentP]

It is moot in the Brexit context, which is the proper context for my earlier reply to Skylinephoto's #2109, which you quoted: that pressure concerns only EU immigrants in the UK, because the UK has decided to exit the EU.

 

Without Brexit, EU immigrants would not be under any pressure to consider acquiring UK citizenship as a means of guaranteeing their right to remain here.

 

Likewise if the UK government had guaranteed their rights.

 

As Brexit looks sure to happen and as the government hasn't guaranteed anything, then objectively, right now, they have no other choice than to either (i) continue to wing it or (ii) be proactive with either (iia) leaving or (iib) applying for citizenship (since there is no existing provision for a visa for them).

 

So your parallel with applying for citizenship France and other (EU) countries is moot (but, I realise lately and readily concede, save as to UK immigrants already there, who face the exact same (i)(ii)(iia)(iib) choices above over there).

 

That pressure is already having measurable consequences. Nothing partisan about this, it's just an objective statement of fact.

 

Ok I think I follow that (no offence) and in the context of brexit, in this instant, immigrants, on a personal level, the pressure and uncertainty will be overbearing and frightening, but that weight of pressure revolving around migration is an undercurrent travelling through Europe, can it be ignored indefinitely?

 

---------- Post added 25-04-2017 at 15:15 ----------

 

Looking objectively from the other side. What would an optimum population be for the UK?

If we were not getting gunned down, run down etc would we still consider ourselves to be victims of migration?

 

I hope our diversity can remain intact even when out of the EU. I'm sure there's a sensible well thought out solution beckoning.

Edited April 25, 2017 by silentP

[SkylinePhoto]

Ok I think I follow that (no offence) and in the context of brexit, in this instant, immigrants, on a personal level, the pressure and uncertainty will be overbearing and frightening, but that weight of pressure revolving around migration is an undercurrent travelling through Europe, can it be ignored indefinitely?

 

---------- Post added 25-04-2017 at 15:15 ----------

 

Looking objectively from the other side. What would an optimum population be for the UK?

If we were not getting gunned down, run down etc would we still consider ourselves to be victims of migration?

 

I hope our diversity can remain intact even when out of the EU. I'm sure there's a sensible well thought out solution beckoning.

 

I think studies have said that our current capacity would hit a critical point at 70m

 

And we are extremely close to that already

[L00b]

Ok I think I follow that (no offence) and in the context of brexit, in this instant, immigrants, on a personal level, the pressure and uncertainty will be overbearing and frightening,

None taken.

but that weight of pressure revolving around migration is an undercurrent travelling through Europe, can it be ignored indefinitely?

I doubt it's being ignored, but -inasmuch as this comment relates to the recurring "Mediterrenean summer specials"- I'll readily agree that it's taking too long to start addressing pragmatically.

 

That said, after Merkel opened the doors wide in 2015 to grab a million malleable and trainable labourers cheaper than cheap, she has shut them tighter than tight since.

 

And it's wholly irrelevant to Brexit, since none of these refugees/illegals can travel freely onto the UK, in or out of the EU.

 

Now, inasmuch as this comment relates to flows of EU citizens themselves, then I see 2 angles to the topic:

 

Economic migration of EU citizens intra-EU has always happened, for decades and longer before the EU was the EEC or even the original ECSC, and will continue to happen for decades and longer with or without Brexit, Nexit, Frexit, Grexit <etc.>, because economics and people being people - which is how and why there are so many multigenerational families of Ukrainian, Italian, Polish <...> descent around here, so many multigenerational families of Italian descent in Wales <etc>.

 

Economic migration of EU citizens intra-EU has always benefitted the economy of the receiving country relative to the economy of the country of origin, to the balance limit of the receiving country's socio-economic systems of benefits and assistance - wherein the UK, equalitarian and ultra-liberal of old, never saw fit to limit much benefits made available to EU immigrants, until recently under growing political pressure...and unlike most other EU member states, who all put the brakes on right from the get-go.

 

The 'blame', if there is one to assign, for the large volumes of EU immigration of the past 10+ years, lies equally at the feet of the UK government (not curtailing numbers, nor curtailing right of establishment, even though fully empowered to do so under EU legislation) and in the continuing economical success of the UK. That in turn begs the question of how much has one influenced the other

If we were not getting gunned down, run down etc would we still consider ourselves to be victims of migration?

I hope that's not a reference to this. Because that person was British born and bred. Edited April 25, 2017 by L00b

[Waldo]

Brexit related, so I'll keep it in this thread; but I'm wondering, how will the result of the French presidential election, impact on our chances of getting a good deal out of Brexit?

[L00b]

Brexit related, so I'll keep it in this thread; but I'm wondering, how will the result of the French presidential election, impact on our chances of getting a good deal out of Brexit?

Marginal.

 

Because the UK is negotiating with 27, not just with Brussels, Paris and Berlin (to preempt your question about the German GE in a few months' time ).

 

The other 24 capitals have just as much of a say -and veto- on the final deal as these 3.

[silentP]

None taken.

I doubt it's being ignored, but -inasmuch as this comment relates to the recurring "Mediterrenean summer specials"- I'll readily agree that it's taking too long to start addressing pragmatically.

 

That said, after Merkel opened the doors wide in 2015 to grab a million malleable and trainable labourers cheaper than cheap, she has shut them tighter than tight since.

 

And it's wholly irrelevant to Brexit, since none of these refugees/illegals can travel freely onto the UK, in or out of the EU.

 

Now, inasmuch as this comment relates to flows of EU citizens themselves, then I see 2 angles to the topic:

 

Economic migration of EU citizens intra-EU has always happened, for decades and longer before the EU was the EEC or even the original ECSC, and will continue to happen for decades and longer with or without Brexit, Nexit, Frexit, Grexit <etc.>, because economics and people being people - which is how and why there are so many multigenerational families of Ukrainian, Italian, Polish <...> descent around here, so many multigenerational families of Italian descent in Wales <etc>.

 

Economic migration of EU citizens intra-EU has always benefitted the economy of the receiving country relative to the economy of the country of origin, to the balance limit of the receiving country's socio-economic systems of benefits and assistance - wherein the UK, equalitarian and ultra-liberal of old, never saw fit to limit much benefits made available to EU immigrants, until recently under growing political pressure...and unlike most other EU member states, who all put the brakes on right from the get-go.

 

The 'blame', if there is one to assign, for the large volumes of EU immigration of the past 10+ years, lies equally at the feet of the UK government (not curtailing numbers, nor curtailing right of establishment, even though fully empowered to do so under EU legislation) and in the continuing economical success of the UK. That in turn begs the question of how much has one influenced the other

I hope that's not a reference to this. Because that person was British born and bred.

 

God no it wasn't in reference to any one attack.

Some here in the UK have an unerring tendency to link migration to terrorism, the question I'm asking is if we were not the victims of such attacks would we still have a problem with people coming to our country. I'm well aware that we have home grown degenerates.

 

---------- Post added 25-04-2017 at 15:54 ----------

 

None taken.

I doubt it's being ignored, but -inasmuch as this comment relates to the recurring "Mediterrenean summer specials"- I'll readily agree that it's taking too long to start addressing pragmatically.

That said, after Merkel opened the doors wide in 2015 to grab a million malleable and trainable labourers cheaper than cheap, she has shut them tighter than tight since.

 

And it's wholly irrelevant to Brexit, since none of these refugees/illegals can travel freely onto the UK, in or out of the EU.

 

Now, inasmuch as this comment relates to flows of EU citizens themselves, then I see 2 angles to the topic:

 

Economic migration of EU citizens intra-EU has always happened, for decades and longer before the EU was the EEC or even the original ECSC, and will continue to happen for decades and longer with or without Brexit, Nexit, Frexit, Grexit <etc.>, because economics and people being people - which is how and why there are so many multigenerational families of Ukrainian, Italian, Polish <...> descent around here, so many multigenerational families of Italian descent in Wales <etc>.

 

Economic migration of EU citizens intra-EU has always benefitted the economy of the receiving country relative to the economy of the country of origin, to the balance limit of the receiving country's socio-economic systems of benefits and assistance - wherein the UK, equalitarian and ultra-liberal of old, never saw fit to limit much benefits made available to EU immigrants, until recently under growing political pressure...and unlike most other EU member states, who all put the brakes on right from the get-go.

 

The 'blame', if there is one to assign, for the large volumes of EU immigration of the past 10+ years, lies equally at the feet of the UK government (not curtailing numbers, nor curtailing right of establishment, even though fully empowered to do so under EU legislation) and in the continuing economical success of the UK. That in turn begs the question of how much has one influenced the other

I hope that's not a reference to this. Because that person was British born and bred.

 

This approach is not dissimilar to the great depression in the US where people queued waiting to be handpicked for work.

[apelike]

Marginal.

 

Because the UK is negotiating with 27, not just with Brussels, Paris and Berlin (to preempt your question about the German GE in a few months' time ).

 

 

I thought we were negotiating with the EU Commission. A cabinet government with a president which although made up of 28 member countries swears an allegiance to the EU and not the country they come from. Any final final agreement/deal by them then gets put to a vote by the others.

 

Basically the Commission brokers the deal and we will not negotiate with the other 27 as that is forbidden.