The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)

[NigelFargate]

Two can play the prediction game, so in opposition to Leavers' hope of EU and French woes, here's mine.

 

NI will UKexit by referendum, then integrate with the Republic and reintegrate the EU, East-West Germany-style, within the next 5 years.

 

It's the no border solution of convenience pushed by the EU, which isn't being fought much at all by Leavers (particularly Davis, and equally for convenience's sake), and the Republic will get bucketloads (-more) EU money as a sweetener, to level up NI socio-economically.

 

Within the same timeframe, if not sooner, Scotland will get its IndyRef2 and, this time, UKexit; then be promptly welcomed into the EFTA by Norway, Iceland and Brussels. Gibraltar won't lag far behind NI and Scotland, to avoid becoming socio-economically blockaded by Spain (-preventing the extension of whatever UK deal gets agreed with the EU to Gibraltar).

 

Within 10 years if not less, the "UK" (England effectively, given Wales' current socio-economic level) will end up a low tax one-party state still led by a seemingly unmovable ultra-conservative government, with record levels of social and geographical inequality, and hard borders all around, including with Ireland and Scotland. It will be doing well with 4i developments and associated exports, primarily out of London, which will still concentrate wealth and opportunities there, with little else elsewhere.

 

But in the "pathetic|" stakes, you could hardly do worse than this: some Brit on twitter posted yesterday that he had £500 on Le Pen to win. When the results came in, he contacted Ladbrokes to complain that they allowed his 13 year-old to place the bet, and that he'd be taking it further. Solid comedy gold

 

Your predictions are based on wishful thinking and on a superficial understanding of the nature of the UK.

 

Neither Northern Ireland nor Scotland is likely to exit the UK, regardless of how much the French and other continental Europeans would like to see this happen (and regardless of the blandishments of EU federalists). Nor is there likely to be a hard, sealed border between the two Irelands (there was never a hard border in relation to migration even before UK and the RoI entered the EU).

 

The French, in particular, seem to revel in the prospect of the break up of the UK, for reasons best known to themselves (perhaps it is an atavism stemming from the auld alliance). I wonder how the French would like it if we started speculating about, or even promoting, the independence of Corsica?

 

---------- Post added 08-05-2017 at 19:30 ----------

 

 

The worse they make the negotiations for the UK, the more likely there will be a hard border in Ireland, to name but one massive issue. With the political situation in NI as it is, that could well trigger Trouble 2.0.

 

I agree that NI is a very sensitive issue and all sides should tread very carefully before making statements or advocating policies which could exacerbate the tensions there. I think both the UK and Irish governments understand this very well, which is why I am reasonably confident that a workable solution to the border issue will be found. However, i am less confident that the Brussels elite will agree to a solution which in any way breaches EU rules or dogma.

[Lockdoctor]

It was inevitable that the brexit debate would eventually steer inexorably to that of harvesting asparagus.

Pray there isn't any late frosts.

[silentP]

Pray there isn't any late frosts.

 

I hadn't even considered that LD. This is a serious worry

[Hairyloon]

When I was fruit picking in Somerset and and other places there were no Gypsies to bee seen on the farms and that was around 1995.

 

Mrs Thatcher cracked down on them as I recall...

[Litotes]

Your predictions are based on wishful thinking and on a superficial understanding of the nature of the UK.

 

Neither Northern Ireland nor Scotland is likely to exit the UK, regardless of how much the French and other continental Europeans would like to see this happen (and regardless of the blandishments of EU federalists). Nor is there likely to be a hard, sealed border between the two Irelands (there was never a hard border in relation to migration even before UK and the RoI entered the EU).

 

The French, in particular, seem to revel in the prospect of the break up of the UK, for reasons best known to themselves (perhaps it is an atavism stemming from the auld alliance). I wonder how the French would like it if we started speculating about, or even promoting, the independence of Corsica?

 

I agree that NI is a very sensitive issue and all sides should tread very carefully before making statements or advocating policies which could exacerbate the tensions there. I think both the UK and Irish governments understand this very well, which is why I am reasonably confident that a workable solution to the border issue will be found. However, i am less confident that the Brussels elite will agree to a solution which in any way breaches EU rules or dogma.

 

I disagree - you don't appear to understand the nature of the relationship between the other parts of the UK and England. I think it highly likely that both NI and Scotland would break away and that NI and Eire would recombine.

 

However, you may be party to some unshared facts rather than wild speculation and would be quite happy to change my mind based on proof.

[andyofborg]

Neither Northern Ireland nor Scotland is likely to exit the UK,

 

 

i'm not so sure that they are that unlikely.

 

Scotland only just voted to remain last time, the majority may feel now is not the time to break away but who knows what the next few years will bring....

 

NI is a different matter, whether or not, the imposition of any sort of a border provides an excuse for violence, any meaningful border is going to damage the NI economy which might make enough of a difference to tip the balance in a referendum. On the other hand, a flimsy border might be attractive to importers and exporters wanting to avoid the hassle of the hard border between the EU and UK mainland which is going to damage the mainland ports.

[I1L2T3]

I disagree - you don't appear to understand the nature of the relationship between the other parts of the UK and England. I think it highly likely that both NI and Scotland would break away and that NI and Eire would recombine.

 

However, you may be party to some unshared facts rather than wild speculation and would be quite happy to change my mind based on proof.

 

Little known fact. The EU recognises cross-border economic regions, places where although there are separate countries they share a common economic zone around the border. Both countries do not have to be in the EU. The NI/Eire zone is already set up and operating to a limited extent.

 

I can see NI remaining nominally in the U.K. but for economic purposes it's clear that a full integration could take place.

[NigelFargate]

I disagree - you don't appear to understand the nature of the relationship between the other parts of the UK and England. I think it highly likely that both NI and Scotland would break away and that NI and Eire would recombine.

 

However, you may be party to some unshared facts rather than wild speculation and would be quite happy to change my mind based on proof.

 

talk about the pot calling the kettle black. Where is your evidence to refute what I have said?

 

all the latest evidence shows that the majority of Scots have no enthusiasm for a referendum for the foreseeable future and even if one were held, the result would be similar to the previous one. The surge in support for the Tories in Scotland is perhaps a good indication that support for sturgeon's agenda has peaked. There is currently no viable economic case for independence, whereas in the previous referendum, the oil industry had not yet collapsed.

 

---------- Post added 08-05-2017 at 21:58 ----------

 

NI is a different matter, whether or not, the imposition of any sort of a border provides an excuse for violence, any meaningful border is going to damage the NI economy which might make enough of a difference to tip the balance in a referendum. On the other hand, a flimsy border might be attractive to importers and exporters wanting to avoid the hassle of the hard border between the EU and UK mainland which is going to damage the mainland ports.

 

You make some good points here. As I have said earlier, I think a viable solution may well be agreed, as it is no one's interests to turn the clock back to the time of the troubles. There is at present no enthusiasm within the two communities to return to the bad old days, but it is still not beyond the bounds of possibility that violence could return.

[silentP]

I disagree - you don't appear to understand the nature of the relationship between the other parts of the UK and England. I think it highly likely that both NI and Scotland would break away and that NI and Eire would recombine.

 

However, you may be party to some unshared facts rather than wild speculation and would be quite happy to change my mind based on proof.

 

If there were proof that it wasn't going to happen, arguing against it would be nonsensical so there can only be speculation for both sides surely.

[NigelFargate]

If there were proof that it wasn't going to happen, arguing against it would be nonsensical so there can only be speculation for both sides surely.

 

Yes, it ultimately comes down to opinion. However, I think the evidence for my argument, particularly in relation to Scotland, is stronger. Only time will tell.