The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)

[tinfoilhat]

I think many remain voters have now accepted the fact that we are leaving the EU and that, on reflection, some of them think is no bad thing. I agree that the possible disruption caused by leaving was a key factor in the decision to vote remain, but if we had another vote today, I think that the remain vote would be substantially smaller than 48%

 

And no party for the next couple of decades will offer a referendum to test that theory, so we'll agree to differ!

[NigelFargate]

And no party for the next couple of decades will offer a referendum to test that theory, so we'll agree to differ!

 

The Lib Dems are offering one now, i.e. before Brexit happens, but the voters aren't biting.

[I1L2T3]

O'Neill is much too sophisticated and complex a thinker to be classified as an 'ist' of any kind. I would describe him as a libertarian iconoclast. He may well have been a 'Marxist' in his early career, but was never the dogmatic believer in the conventional tenets of orthodox Marxism (nor, for that matter, was Marx). His articles are always worth reading, because he offers insights and opinions on various topics which you will not find in most other media outlets..

 

---------- Post added 09-05-2017 at 13:16 ----------

 

 

Yes, Marx was wrong about virtually everything. Not a single one of his predictions has come true.

 

That was a big post

[L00b]

I think many remain voters have now accepted the fact that we are leaving the EU and that, on reflection, some of them think is no bad thing. I agree that the possible disruption caused by leaving was a key factor in the decision to vote remain, but if we had another vote today, I think that the remain vote would be substantially smaller than 48%

Whilst that looks to be supported by YouGov data (see graph 2 in linked source below), poll data about "Bregret" remains ambivalent and a close run (see graph 1 in linked source below), and

that data also suggests that voters remain as ill-educated about the UK's EU membership as before the referendum (quote from section 4 of link):

A large majority think that it is important that Britain retains access to the single market after we leave the European Union. It would, however, be wrong to necessarily interpret this as a public appetite for Britain staying within the single market through an EFTA type relationship. Polls also consistently show that people think it is important that Britain has full control over immigration once we leave the European Union, something that is normally seen as being incompatible with single market membership. The public would like to have their cake and to eat it.

source

 

To my mind, it paints a clear picture of May's current political strength riding on the last 10 months of misrepresentation about what the UK can realistically achieve out of the negotiations, and of May's ratings/political survival remaining contingent on (somehow) achieving a substantial match between what she (and her 3 Brexiteers) said the UK would get, versus what the UK eventually comes out with (...or contingent on successfully misrepresenting that "bad deal", if it is one, as a "great deal"...wherein having most of the press and mainstream media in one's pocket may certainly help)

Edited May 9, 2017 by L00b
inserted 'achieving', for clarity

[NigelFargate]

Whilst that looks to be supported by YouGov data (see graph 2 in linked source below), poll data about "Bregret" remains ambivalent and a close run (see graph 1 in linked source below), and

that data also suggests that voters remain as ill-educated about the UK's EU membership as before the referendum (quote from section 4 of link):

 

source

 

To my mind, it paints a clear picture of May's current political strength riding on the last 10 months of misrepresentation about what the UK can realistically achieve out of the negotiations, and of May's ratings/political survival remaining contingent on (somehow) achieving a substantial match between what she (and her 3 Brexiteers) said the UK would get, versus what the UK eventually comes out with (...or contingent on successfully misrepresenting that "bad deal", if it is one, as a "great deal"...wherein having most of the press and mainstream media in one's pocket may certainly help)

 

I can't see how your quote justifies the argument that voters remain ill-educated about the UK's membership and prospects. Or that they want their cake and to eat it.

 

The key element about the SEM in the quote is the reference to access , not membership. We will have access to the SEM post-Brexit, as do virtually all other states in the global trading system. We will also have greater control over migration, because we will not be subject to EU freedom of movement rules. If access is the cake and control of immigration is the eating of it, then there is no contradiction between the two. It is the quote which is contradictory, because it first refers to access and then to membership, as if they were the same thing.

Edited May 9, 2017 by NigelFargate

[apelike]

Yes, Marx was wrong about virtually everything. Not a single one of his predictions has come true.

 

This is how it normally goes with people who predict things as can be seen on SF as well..

 

I predict xxx will happen.

But its not happened has it?

It will give it time.

But its still not happened.

It will give it time.

When will that happen.

Soon, give it time.

But its not happened has it.

It will give it time.

 

Add infinitum..

[NigelFargate]

This is how it normally goes with people who predict things as can be seen on SF as well..

 

I predict xxx will happen.

But its not happened has it?

It will give it time.

But its still not happened.

It will give it time.

When will that happen.

Soon, give it time.

But its not happened has it.

It will give it time.

 

Add infinitum..

 

The above appears to have been taken from the catechism of the remainers. The UK economy has not yet collapsed, but give it time; unemployment has not yet increased, but give it time; there has not been a mass exodus of foreign companies, but give it time etc. etc.

[chalga]

I can't see how your quote justifies the argument that voters remain ill-educated about the UK's membership and prospects. Or that they want their cake and to eat it.

 

The key element about the SEM in the quote is the reference to access , not membership. We will have access to the SEM post-Brexit, as do virtually all other states in the global trading system. We will also have greater control over migration, because we will not be subject to EU freedom of movement rules. If access is the cake and control of immigration is the eating of it, then there is no contradiction between the two. It is the quote which is contradictory, because it first refers to access and then to membership, as if they were the same thing.

 

Why is Hunt saying that the future prospects of the UK depend on getting a good Brexit deal?

[L00b]

I can't see how your quote justifies the argument that voters remain ill-educated about the UK's membership and prospects.

What was I thinking, trusting you to look up the link, and show a bit of objectivity

 

Looks like you can't be ar5ed (and/or perhaps unsurprisingly, find it convenient to focus on the excerpt only), so here is the full paragraph at the link, with the bit I missed earlier in bold:

A large majority think that it is important that Britain retains access to the single market after we leave the European Union. It would, however, be wrong to necessarily interpret this as a public appetite for Britain staying within the single market through an EFTA type relationship. Polls also consistently show that people think it is important that Britain has full control over immigration once we leave the European Union, something that is normally seen as being incompatible with single market membership. The public would like to have their cake and to eat it.

 

When asked a direct question on which they would choose - 16% said control of immigration, 24% said free trade with Europe, but 40% said it was a false choice and Britain could have both. It looks like they will be disappointed.

Happy to let you reconsider your earlier reply, in your own time.

Or that they want their cake and to eat it.

That "cake and eat it" phrasing is YouGov's wording at the link, exactly as quoted, not mine (or my argument).

 

It's not that I'm getting fed up of your putting words in my mouth/posts time and time again, because your doing so does you much more of a disservice on here.

 

But you might want to clean up your act sometime, lest readers begin to think that you've got to invent arguments and opinions that I haven't posted in order to keep up.

Edited May 9, 2017 by L00b

[Brian Equato]

O'Neill is much too sophisticated and complex a thinker to be classified as an 'ist' of any kind. I would describe him as a libertarian iconoclast. He may well have been a 'Marxist' in his early career, but was never the dogmatic believer in the conventional tenets of orthodox Marxism (nor, for that matter, was Marx). His articles are always worth reading, because he offers insights and opinions on various topics which you will not find in most other media outlets..

 

---------- Post added 09-05-2017 at 13:16 ----------

 

 

Yes, Marx was wrong about virtually everything. Not a single one of his predictions has come true.

 

Well he did say he didn't want to join any club that would have him as a member, quite prophetic really in regards to Britain and the EU.