The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)

[I1L2T3]

I know you do, so why are you (still) expecting that UK politicians may be able to round the sharp corners and deliver "the softest possible Brexit with a baked in transition period"?

 

Bar the odd and rare exception, there's nothing the UK has and does, which businesses in the EU27 cannot replace if they find it cheaper and/or better elsewhere, in the EU our outside of it. Goods, services, markets.

 

And we've all long seen how the EU looks after its own (including the UK, for the last 40-odd years). Indeed that EU protectionism has been one of the many bugbears of Leavers.

 

Now, the UK has chosen to ditch the competitive advantage which its EU membership conferred to its businesses with EU purchasers, relative to businesses from the rest of the world, whether FTA'd or not.

 

And, by very vocally deciding to ditch the entire lot up to and including Customs Union, the UK has decided to line itself up with the US, India, China, Russia <..> when touting for EU business.

 

And that's the objective, dispassionate look at things, before we've considered the shrill anti-EU garbage coming out of Westminster for the past 11 months, e.g. lately Johnson's calls for the EU to pay a divorce bill to the UK (). And I'm not going to go onto the political, borderline tinfoil hat, stuff like how the UK exiting the EU and the jurisdiction of the ECJ opens the door to US investments (phagociting public and private services and markets with the lightest of regulatory touches) so wide, it's taking that door off its hinges, TTIP was a draft-like.

 

So why expect any 'soft Brexit' and 'long transition' and such other favours from the EU, as the UK wants to become a third party country? It's wholly illogical

 

You and I both know that, bar any unforeseen and earth-shattering event like a world war or whatnot, the UK is coming out, and that it ain't going to be pretty, by a very long stretch and for a very long time.

 

The time for arguments, debates and 'hopes' is well past. Stay on the ship and man the pumps, willingly or grudgingly matters not. Or GTFO.

 

Call me naive but I think it's possible to still salvage something from all this. None of the companies we are working with are completely going. For some it's mostly an administrative move, others are moving hundreds of roles and that may grow to thousands of roles in the future. The problem is that even the companies that are moving only small functions have now had a taste of the kinds of packages that cities in the EU are willing to deliver to attract the business. The seed is planted and word has spread to other companies.

 

If we do nothing we are toast. If we respond with investment there may be some hope. I'm amazed at people on this thread when they say we should spend nothing, because that is all our new competitors do to attract business: invest..invest..invest. And then invest some more.

 

As for my own GTFO situation one last thing to do to be fully ready. My wife is a citizen of another EU country but we've discovered that because of when and where she was born she is entitled to British citizenship. Just me out of my family and four kids that won't be dual national after that.

[L00b]

It is probably the only option.

 

That depends upon how it is done. There is no need for violence.

I was not sub-tending violence, but even if there was, my opinion would not change one iota.

 

Historical evidence (Brixton, Orgreave, London <...>) shows that the UK government takes, and keeps, a hard suppressing line that eventually prevails - each time so.

 

Historical evidence shows that mass strikes (General Strikes, Miners, Firefighters, Civil Service, Junior Doctors <...>) likewise achieve about as much as riots, i.e. not a whole lot.

 

Brits just don't do 'uncivil' and 'civil unrest' hard and smart enough, to take any velleities of "mutiny" seriously.

Ah, that is where the analogy breaks down. There are a number of ways that the captain of a ship can be lawfully and rightfully relieved of his command.

I'm sure there are. Your fundamental problem is that too much of the crew is, to all intents and purposes, inert. And/or cowed by the captain supporters. As that recently-linked YouGov poll data shows.

Call me naive but I think it's possible to still salvage something from all this. None of the companies we are working with are completely going. For some it's mostly an administrative move, others are moving hundreds of roles and that may grow to thousands of roles in the future. The problem is that even the companies that are moving only small functions have now had a taste of the kinds of packages that cities in the EU are willing to deliver to attract the business. The seed is planted and word has spread to other companies.

That's because it makes perfect fiduciary sense to keep HQ in the UK insofar as personal taxation of the highest earners is concerned (you don't want to be a high earner in Dublin or Paris...for now still, anyway).

 

Which is why JPMorgan has just bought premises on the docks in Dublin and is moving 500 (low paid) back office jobs there, but not most the (higher paid) traders and high tiers of management (they'll be going to Luxembourg in due course, I expect).

If we do nothing we are toast. If we respond with investment there may be some hope. I'm amazed at people on this thread when they say we should spend nothing, because that is all our new competitors do to attract business: invest..invest..invest. And then invest some more.

I'll reiterate tfh's earlier post: invest with what? The UK is still flat broke, haemorrhaging brains, not much of anything left by way of goodwill to attract FDI and skilled workers (see stats in recent news, EU applicants are down 50% on recruitment/headhunter boards pushing UK jobs), and inflation is now gathering pace (latest stats from ONS are out, as I expected it's upwards relative to the previous period). Edited May 16, 2017 by L00b

[Puggie]

If we do nothing we are toast. If we respond with investment there may be some hope.

 

You've got to remember Brexit does offer opportunities too. Dad works in aviation maintenance (MRO) where the weak pound has made British repair & overhaul more attractive to foreign-based private operators looking to service their aircraft in the UK. There's an international treaty that ensures that aircraft parts and spares are free from tariffs so the MRO industry is somewhat protected against Brexit already.

 

Once the CAA can legally untangle itself from EASA bureaucracy there is an expectation that they will craft a regulatory framework that is far more streamlined and cost effective compared to current EASA rules.

[L00b]

You've got to remember Brexit does offer opportunities too. Dad works in aviation maintenance (MRO) where the weak pound has made British repair & overhaul more attractive to foreign-based private operators looking to service their aircraft in the UK. There's an international treaty that ensures that aircraft parts and spares are free from tariffs so the MRO industry is somewhat protected against Brexit already.

 

Once the CAA can legally untangle itself from EASA bureaucracy there is an expectation that they will craft a regulatory framework that is far more streamlined and cost effective compared to current EASA rules.

For balance, here is a contrasting view of this opportunity.

 

Ain't going to be no regulatory picnic. And you want to hope (well, the government will need to ensure that-) the setup and operational costs for duplicating the UK's share of EASA and negotiating its (re)implementation across the myriad existing international treaties that affect the issue, don't end up costing more than the (potential) economic gain from the opportunity.

 

Going back to I1L2T3's post which you quoted, I don't think the cost of that regulatory reset qualifies as 'investment': if the UK won't stay in the EASA (whether deliberately, or as a result of negotiations, or simply by operation of European law i.e. it automatically gets kicked out), it's part and parcel of the cost of divorcing the EU (solely at the UK's initiative) and has to paid regardless, because the UK couldn't carry on air operations in a regulatory vacuum.

Edited May 16, 2017 by L00b

[Litotes]

Mrs Mayhem's manifesto really doesn't instill me with any hope for the future.

 

Rehashed ideas from the other parties and no reason to trust the Conservatives this time after they have failed to deliver against many of their previous moneyfesto promises.

 

And as for her project fear - "if you don't reelect me the Brexit monster will come along and eat you up"

[panzer1]

I think May has shown her true remainer colours. Her manifesto has alienated the Tory core voters and pushed a million votes over to labour. I am a brexiteer and I now think the referendum was a waste of time, when labour get in ( I am putting 20 quid on them this morning ) they will just roll over to the EU. They will get nothing and probably increase our payments for the privilege of coming out.

May will say we voted to leave but because labour won the election they ballsed it up, UKIP or similar will return to get the disaffected Tory voters. Then there will be a period of angst with the EU all over again, the referendum will have been pointless. I am still voting Tory in the hope they get in and sort Brexit and will vote on other matters in the next election.

The question now is does the electorates dislike of Corbyn outweigh the awful Tory manifesto, well we will know in 3 weeks. I agree that the social care etc needs sorting but think she chose the wrong time to bring them to the fore or am I right in that she is hoping to lose the election so that Brexit fails letting big business continue in the EU, she may have even told Nissan that was her plan which is why they shut up about market access?

[I1L2T3]

I've got some audacious bets on as well it betfair markets are not moving much, although in last 24 hours evens betting on number of labour seats is for 179 seats up from 159

[panzer1]

Got 10 to 1 labour win and 6 to 1 Corbyn next PM, bookies still back tories but if labour win at least I will get £300 back to offset the tax rises that are not going to happen, lol.

[chalga]

Saw Brexiteer Dominic Raab interviewed on live TV today saying exactly the opposite of what German Business is saying to the UK,according to him,the Germans would come around to the way the UK thought,instead of 'cutting off their nose to spite their face'

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/19/german-business-leaders-conservatives-tories-rethink-plan-leave-single-market-trade-eu

 

German industrialists have warned that British hopes of their support in Brexit negotiations are misplaced and could backfire with dangerous consequences for international trade.

 

Business leaders in Europe’s biggest economy are instead calling on Conservatives to rethink their commitment to leaving the single market, even though the party has doubled down on this promise in its election manifesto.

 

David Davis and Boris Johnson have repeatedly cited likely pressure from German exporters, such as carmakers, as a reason for thinking they can persuade European negotiators to maintain free trade access after Britain leaves.

 

 

But the theory is increasingly rejected by those whose support they need most – scepticism relayed most forcefully by Steffen Kampeter, the chief executive of the German employers’ federation, on a trip to the UK this week.

 

“The top priority of European business is the integrity of the single market; the second priority is making good business with the UK. We will see if there is a conflict, but the message is: do not harm the single market by cherry-picking deals,” he told a conference of British business leaders in London this week.

 

“It’s not the German carmakers that are directing the negotiations,” added Kampeter, who said he knew of no one who thought a trade deal within 18 months was possible and called for “rhetorical disarmament on all sides”.

 

An independent panel of economists that advises the German government has also intervened by proposing a plan that would avert such a cliff-edge scenario, whereby Britain would temporarily rejoin Efta – the trading block that consists of Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein – at the point when its EU membership runs out and therefore preserve its membership of the single market

Edited May 19, 2017 by chalga

[Guest]

Got 10 to 1 labour win and 6 to 1 Corbyn next PM, bookies still back tories but if labour win at least I will get £300 back to offset the tax rises that are not going to happen, lol.

 

Maybe I can't vote, but I will definitely take this odds.