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The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)


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You remember what "sequence of events" led to the last highest in date of 5% at end 2010/early 2011?

 

5% is where the UK inflation rate is headed by Xmas 2017. That was Dame Frances Cairncross' prognosis in November 2016. It wasn't a ceiling, either. So far, the inflation rate is tracking that prognosis, and looks to be overtaking the Guardian's more conservative estimate of 3% early (I last posted about this 13 December 2016)

 

No global financial crash to blame this time around, and for all the spin which they'll probably throw at it, I doubt the Leavers and/or the government will manage to pin it on the 'big bad EU' and get it to stick, either.

The BoE's margin of manoeuvre is certainly shrinking by the month.

 

The problem isn't so much inflation. The problem is (long-)stagnant wages, and the gap between wages and inflation, fast-growing afresh at the expense of spending power...which is a sizeable chunk of what powers the national economy in the UK: retail sneezes, and the whole economy catches a cold.

 

It's all very well tanking your national currency to boost exports and help suppress anxiety building in the business community. But the chickens inevitably come home to roost once the value differential has made its way within supply chains all the way through to cost per retail unit and worker wages.

 

Forbes have suggested that these inflation rises follow trends and that a wage increase of perhaps 2% maybe even 3% is likely in 2018, now that would be very nice so, premature but happy new year :)

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Forbes have suggested that these inflation rises follow trends and that a wage increase of perhaps 2% maybe even 3% is likely in 2018, now that would be very nice so, premature but happy new year :)

 

Yeah, happy new year, you might catch up with the inflation of the price of living if you're lucky. Great. :thumbsup:

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Yeah, happy new year, you might catch up with the inflation of the price of living if you're lucky. Great. :thumbsup:

 

"always look on the bright side Cyclone"

 

It's dim and distant, but just keep walking towards the light mate.

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Who would have thought,

 

"Britain would be '£156 billion a year better off WITHOUT a deal with EU'

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/817259/Brexit-boost-Britain-better-off-without-no-deal-EU-Theresa-May

 

Seems like the remainers are holding the country back.

 

No,Brexiteers are holding you back,nothing was stopping you from walking away the day after the referendum,except for Brexiteers wanting to get access to something they just got voted out of.

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No,Brexiteers are holding you back,nothing was stopping you from walking away the day after the referendum,except for Brexiteers wanting to get access to something they just got voted out of.

 

That's the biggest load of bull you've come out with yet.:hihi:

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"always look on the bright side Cyclone"

 

It's dim and distant, but just keep walking towards the light mate.

 

Just trying to make it clear that your implication that it would somehow be a gift or a bonus to people isn't really true.

Wages are significantly behind inflation, and a moderate increase in a few years time will leave most people with wages still significantly behind the cost of living.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/supplementaryanalysisofaverageweeklyearnings/latest

 

Adjusted for price inflation, average weekly earnings including bonuses declined 0.4 percent and average regular pay excluding bonuses fell 0.6 percent, the worst since 2014. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.88 percent from 2001 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wage-growth

 

And

 

IFS: Growth in UK living standards worst in 60 years

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/02/ifs-growth-uk-living-standards-worst-in-60-years-pensions-poverty-budget

 

Thanks Brexit.

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Who would have thought,

 

"Britain would be '£156 billion a year better off WITHOUT a deal with EU'

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/817259/Brexit-boost-Britain-better-off-without-no-deal-EU-Theresa-May

 

Seems like the remainers are holding the country back.

 

Who would have thought!

 

Brexit campaigners dangle golden carrot in front of population without anything substantial to back it up and the Smear Express publishes it!

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Who would have thought!

 

Brexit campaigners dangle golden carrot in front of population without anything substantial to back it up and the Smear Express publishes it!

 

The only golden carrot was the UK's contribution to the EU, and boy wont they miss it.

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