The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)

[tzijlstra]

Not much point in being a member of a club that only recognises you when you pay your subs, access will open up to more than what is allowed in the EU.

If you want to live under the jack boot I suggest you move.

 

Ah yes, TTIP, such a lovely trade deal that would be. American companies taking over the NHS, trade courts that set the agenda in the UK rather than the Human Rights court. A lovely prospect that!

[silentP]

@Cyclone. No I'm under no illusions about any pay rise being a gift. It would need to be around 5% for it to be of any real benefit as things are and that ain't gonna happen.

Things are looking gloomy for sure but then I never expected utopia to rise from leaving the EU.

I've read all your links by the way.

[retep]

Ah yes, TTIP, such a lovely trade deal that would be. American companies taking over the NHS, trade courts that set the agenda in the UK rather than the Human Rights court. A lovely prospect that!

 

Funeral has already taken place.

[Carlinate]

Presumably he means that within the EU we couldn't unilaterally make deals with 3rd parties.

Outside it, we're free to do so, although given our size in comparison to the EU we can't expect the deals we strike to be as favourable.

 

Well if that is in fact what he means then he's not thought it through.

 

As you say we won't get the deals offered to a 450 million population market when negotiating on behalf of a 65 million market.

 

Of course it's worse than that, in that every new deal we sign up to the customer or supplier will know the position that we've placed ourselves in and be looking to take advantage so as to benefit themselves.

 

That is not 'punishing' as the Brexiteers will no doubt view it, that is normal business practice.

[silentP]

2 to 3 whole percents?

 

Notwithstanding that your reply argument basically amounts to fantasizing about scraps...what do households do until '2018'?

 

"this time next year, we'll be millionaires!"

 

It's not my fantasy L00b, it's a Forbes speculation, I don't expect anything truth be known. I go to work and what I get is what I get.

This time next year I'll likely have less

 

---------- Post added 15-06-2017 at 11:54 ----------

 

Actually... the mood in the EU is pretty buoyant at the moment, finally getting rid of the tantrum throwing know-it-all so they can get on with sorting things out.

 

You say that but I keep stumbling across reports about deals to entice us back to the union so we must offer something, or us leaving is a biggie for them.

Difficult to know who to believe these days.

Edited June 15, 2017 by silentP

[L00b]

It's not my fantasy L00b, it's a Forbes speculation, I don't expect anything truth be known. I go to work and what I get is what I get.

This time next year I'll likely have less

Well, you pointed to this Forbes opinion in a reply to my post, so that makes it your fantasy position, surely?

 

Anyway, glad you see the humour in it

You say that but I keep stumbling across reports about deals to entice us back to the union so we must offer something, or us leaving is a biggie for them.

Difficult to know who to believe these days.

Any links to those reports?

 

The only 'enticement' I've seen lately, is Macron and Merkel telling May that the EU door remains open until the UK walks through it. Which is awfully nice of them, considering the statutory bar (to staying in the EU) which Article 50 TFEU looks like on paper and by the opinion of most legal observers (-of repute): they're telegraphing to May (/the British electorate at large), that a way to make Article 50 go away will be found, should the UK so wish. Although I'd expect the price tag for that option to be eye-watering I'm afraid (kiss the rebate good bye, for starters).

 

But then reminding someone that they can stop kicking themselves in the nuts, is hardly 'enticement', is it?

 

Seriously now, of course the UK offers something. Net contributions (the balance that is, after what the UK gets back as its rebate and EU investments) and a geopolitical ally increasing the total group size, to put it at its simplest. But in and of itself, to the EU, that's "nice to have" territory, not "life-sustaining" territory: the UK leaving is a mostly political biggie to the EU, not an existential one.

 

That's because the UK cannot 'improve' on the deal which it had, and still has, until <actual> Brexit: the best possible trade deal that can be had with the EU, is to be in the EU. After the UK is out, each of the EU27 will be at an advantage relative to the UK competition, to trade with the others within the EU. Nothing contentious about that, it's plain common sense.

Edited June 15, 2017 by L00b

[Carlinate]

 

---------- Post added 15-06-2017 at 11:54 ----------

 

 

You say that but I keep stumbling across reports about deals to entice us back to the union so we must offer something, or us leaving is a biggie for them.

Difficult to know who to believe these days.

 

In today's Times there is a report that Guy Verhofstadt the EU Parliament's Brexit negotiator has stated that Britain can rejoin but only on poorer terms than those we presently have.

 

He also stated to MEP's that Britain would have to radically change if it wished to return.

 

In other words he is playing hardball and is quite content to let us go on EU terms.

 

We have always been regarded as a disruptive element with our less than total commitment and our lap dog style brown nosing of the USA.

[silentP]

L00b I've tried all ways to attach links with this poxy phone without success. If I can find them again the best I can do is type it in so you can copy to a browser. One was from Verhofstadt (different to the one Carlinate has just posted) and another by an Italian guy who's name escapes me but he's recently taken a top position.

 

I was just doing speculative searches along the lines of Europe kisses ass to get us back I jest of course.

[L00b]

L00b I've tried all ways to attach links with this poxy phone without success. If I can find them again the best I can do is type it in so you can copy to a browser.

Don't beat yourself up over it. Though it'd be interesting to see them, as (from how you've described them) they'd be running counter to the current mood and consensus position across the EU27.

I was just doing speculative searches along the lines of Europe kisses ass to get us back I jest of course.

Ah, but the EU did kiss a55. Cameron's, in February 2016. But then, people needed more than 2 brain cells and a modicum of knowledge and awareness about the EU (what it is, what it's for, how it works, etc.) to see it for what it was.

 

So with the noise of fury of hardline Eurosceptics and their agenda-pushing red tops (thus, their readership also) calling it a failure (inevitable, since Cameron couldn't possibly get all that he was asking for), that was that.

 

For anyone bothered about shedding an early historical perspective on Brexit, what the EU offered Cameron then was, and still is, the first clear sign that the UK is never going to 'get its cake and eating it' from the EU.

[silentP]

Whomever it was any deal still had provisos sewn in..