The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[melthebell]

So long, thanks for all the fish.

and bendy bannanas

[Magilla]

I regularly read the French Press and they are astonished at how important the British think they are in the great scheme of things. Can’t speak for other countries.

 

As I understand it, Brexit isn't really front page news anywhere except here. EU citizens seem to be largely unconcerned about it.

[phil752]

apart from the health and safety and workers rights that keep these tory "posh" boys in check, but now thats all out the window, i wish people would think before spitting the dummy out, now were all ****ed

 

I guess you never worked abroad health and safety are far more regulated or adhered to here than there.

[ez8004]

http://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/hard-brexit-cost-5000-rolls-647477

 

Brexit won’t happen as more companies start revealing its detrimental effects.

[L00b]

Agree with the bulk of this, of course. But I'm not sure that the EU is intent on a regime of capital taxes/controls. Indeed, haven't the Macronistas just abolished the tax on capital in France? And they're right at the heart of the European Project.

Please don't confuse domestic taxation/capital controls, moreover in as single country (France), with their (proposed/mooted/yet-to-happen) harmonisation at the EU level: there's another 26 national sets of fiscal measure to take into consideration...and a long, long way to go. All the same, it's clear that this is (one of-) the destination(s). Which makes perfect logical sense, for a unified currency (€) zone.

 

As for Macron, those taxes will come back by the back door, targeting home/land owners (you seen/heard of France Stratégie's latest proposals?)

 

I've been a French taxpayer (at times exempted through residence rules and reciprocal/dual taxation agreements) long enough to know how the French government -any government of any political flavour- is forever tweaking and tinkering with the set of fiscal communicating vases, without much budgetary effect: there's still only so many levers and taps to that set, to play with, and still far too little new liquid added to it to replace evaporation

 

Which is exactly why I still shan't be a French taxpayer (nor a UK one anymore) after our forthcoming Brexit-imposed move

Edited October 20, 2017 by L00b

[apelike]

http://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/hard-brexit-cost-5000-rolls-647477

 

Brexit won’t happen as more companies start revealing its detrimental effects.

 

Brexit will happen as EU paves way for trade talks to begin:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41684111

[ez8004]

Brexit will happen as EU paves way for trade talks to begin:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41684111

 

Did you read the article? The EU leaders aren’t paving any path at the moment. They are still waiting on the UK to concede more. As it stands no trade talks are happening.

 

Also, have you heard what the previous head of the WTO have said on LBC this morning if we default to WTO rules? We’ll be guaranteed to be significantly worse off in trade compared to now. This will result in job losses across the entire economy.

 

Now, I can’t think of an “expert” more qualified to speak about the rules we’ll need to adhere to other than the person who ran the organisation. I know you don’t like listening to experts, but maybe you should get your head out of the sand now.

[L00b]

Brexit will happen as EU paves way for trade talks to begin:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41684111

Did you read the article? The EU leaders aren’t paving any path at the moment. They are still waiting on the UK to concede more. As it stands no trade talks are happening.

What the EU27 will now do about trade, is exactly what they did about the divorce: meet a few times, agree common red lines that benefits their interests and, once enough progress is deemed to have been made on the divorce deal, publish them as "guidelines" and then wait the clock for the UK to blink.

Also, have you heard what the previous head of the WTO have said on LBC this morning if we default to WTO rules? We’ll be guaranteed to be significantly worse off in trade compared to now. This will result in job losses across the entire economy.

For interested thread readers, see the second monograph 'The WTO Option and its application to Brexit' by Richard North here, dedicated to the 'WTO-only' option.

 

Richard North is hardly the remainer type

[Magilla]

Also, have you heard what the previous head of the WTO have said on LBC this morning if we default to WTO rules? We’ll be guaranteed to be significantly worse off in trade compared to now. This will result in job losses across the entire economy.

 

I think that'll happen now regardless. The economy is stalling, cashflow is drying up. WTO would be so bad for the UK it'll make previous austerity seem tame.

 

To be able to drop back to WTO rules in time, we may have to offer significant concessions over issues like the Falklands, or Gibraltar:-

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-wto-schedule-argentina-spain-brexit-latest-a7468766.html

 

and with the US, NZ etc regarding quotas:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/11/uk-and-eu-formally-inform-wto-of-post-brexit-tariff-quota-plan

 

Hence May begging the EU for anything she can bring home to placate the "swivel eye'd loons", she knows WTO is not a viable option. She knows any party that inflicts that level of damage is done.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Magilla

[apelike]

Did you read the article? The EU leaders aren’t paving any path at the moment. They are still waiting on the UK to concede more. As it stands no trade talks are happening.

 

Actually the article has changed and so has its headline since I first posted the link, it actually read "EU paves way for trade talks to begin."

 

I know you don’t like listening to experts, but maybe you should get your head out of the sand now.

 

My head is not in the sand at all, its your head that is in the clouds wishing and hoping for Brexit not to happen when it will, so get used to it.