The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[Puggie]

"But our biggest fear is that, in two years' time, we fall off a cliff edge - no deal, outside the single market and customs union and trading on inferior World Trade Organization terms.

 

We have to stop getting our knickers in a twist over the nitty gritty of Article 50.

 

Article 50 is a product of EU law. EU law is very different to other forms of law (eg. constitutional law).

 

Political objectives lie at the heart of of EU law. If that same political authority (May, Merkel, Macron) decide article 50 is not a helpful tool they will simply continue on regardless because if the parties involved are committed to achieving a settlement then there are no deadlines. You don't jeopardize the outcome of a settlement for the sake of an artificial deadline. You'd be playing a game of crystal maze otherwise!

 

---------- Post added 20-06-2017 at 21:33 ----------

 

@L00b I know where you're coming from. Lawyers require clarity. Politicians do not.

[Cyclone]

Is this more brexit fantasy?

[Carlinate]

We have to stop getting our knickers in a twist over the nitty gritty of Article 50.

 

Article 50 is a product of EU law. EU law is very different to other forms of law (eg. constitutional law).

 

Political objectives lie at the heart of of EU law. If that same political authority (May, Merkel, Macron) decide article 50 is not a helpful tool they will simply continue on regardless because if the parties involved are committed to achieving a settlement then there are no deadlines. You don't jeopardize the outcome of a settlement for the sake of an artificial deadline. You'd be playing a game of crystal maze otherwise!

 

---------- Post added 20-06-2017 at 21:33 ----------

 

@L00b I know where you're coming from. Lawyers require clarity. Politicians do not.

 

You make it sound as though May,Merkel and Macron can decide between themselves what timetable to adopt.

 

That's not the way it works, despite many Leavers insistence that the EU is some form of draconian dictatorship in fact it's very democratic.

 

Any proposal to alter the timetable would need to be agreed by each of the 27 countries.

 

That may happen but it might not and May, Merkel and Macron aren't going to be making up the rules as they go along.

[Bob Arctor]

I have to say I have a bad feeling about how everything is going to end up. Consider this:

 

Inflation in the UK is rising because of Brexit and that was even before the negotiations started. It has now outstripped wage growth so UK workers on average will now start to see their disposable income reduce.

 

Because wage growth since the 2008 recession has been dreadful regardless of inflation, people have resorted to more and more borrowing to buy consumer goods, including essentials. UK personal debt is nearly back to pre-2008 levels. The average consumer credit debt (this excludes mortgages) for a UK household is a terrifying £7349. If like me you have no consumer debt, think for a minute about how up to their necks some people must be.

 

This borrowing binge has been supported and encouraged by historically low interest rates, but the Bank of England seems to be steadily edging towards a rate rise which would tip many borrowers into default and insolvency, including on mortgages, risking another credit crunch and attendant recession.

 

The underlying economic situation for the UK seems incredibly fragile. Therefore, any level of negative outcome for the UK from the Brexit negotiations has the potential to be disastrous.

 

Another thing that troubles me: historically, inflation has been due at least in part to wage inflation (at least according to economic orthodoxy). The lever that government has used to try to reduce inflation has been interest rate rises. But since the current inflation trend is mainly due to higher import costs and interest rate rises will cause the problems mentioned above, how will the UK government deal with rising inflation? Or can they not control it?

[Litotes]

You make it sound as though May,Merkel and Macron can decide between themselves what timetable to adopt.

 

That's not the way it works, despite many Leavers insistence that the EU is some form of draconian dictatorship in fact it's very democratic.

 

Any proposal to alter the timetable would need to be agreed by each of the 27 countries.

 

That may happen but it might not and May, Merkel and Macron aren't going to be making up the rules as they go along.

 

But the other 25 will follow what Macron and Merkel say.

And May-I-please will follow suit with what they want.

[silentP]

Is this more brexit fantasy?

 

Just keep watching the space. There's more to these negotiations than the EU is willing to let on. They posture well

[crookedspire]

Since the referendum the pound has been weak prices have risen my brother back in England was only telling about this the other day. Will this settle down soon or later after the UK has left the EU?

 

For what I can understand the DUP want a soft Brexit to remain in the Custom Union and single market to lessen the impact of leaving were May wanted a hard Brexit which to me would be very damaging to the economy. Read online the talks with DUP are difficult but didn't go into detail on what at a rough guess it's Brexit has no country has ever left the EU no one really knows how this will turn out.

[Puggie]

You make it sound as though May,Merkel and Macron can decide between themselves what timetable to adopt.

 

That's not the way it works, despite many Leavers insistence that the EU is some form of draconian dictatorship in fact it's very democratic.

 

Any proposal to alter the timetable would need to be agreed by each of the 27 countries.

 

That may happen but it might not and May, Merkel and Macron aren't going to be making up the rules as they go along.

 

I'm not making a case for Brexit I am simply saying this is how it works at the highest levels of inter-governmental diplomacy. The deadlines don't matter when you've got a political settlement to reach. The minute they start talking about transitional arrangements you know 100% there will be no deadlines. You achieve the objectives of stage 1 before moving onto stage 2 etc.

[andyofborg]

For what I can understand the DUP want a soft Brexit to remain in the Custom Union and single market to lessen the impact of leaving were May wanted a hard Brexit which to me would be very damaging to the economy. Read online the talks with DUP are difficult but didn't go into detail on what at a rough guess it's Brexit has no country has ever left the EU no one really knows how this will turn out.

 

The DUP want a soft border between NI and Eire which is difficult to see happening if we leave the customs union.

 

A hard border would destroy the NI economy and damage the Eire economy local to the their side to the border.

 

A hard border would also undermine the peace process and as loopy as the DUP are they aren't quite that loopy. It might also make the people of NI think they may be better off leaving the UK and reunifying Ireland which is totally opposite to the DUP's reason for existing.

 

On the other hand a soft border, makes border control for the UK almost impossible, since anyone wanting to come to the UK just has to get to Dublin and walk up the road. The Dublin government can't do UK border control at their borders since EU travellers will have the right to enter Eire. The UK government will have to do border control either on exit from NI to Britain or at the other end of the journey which is going to delay (ie seriously upset) legitimate travellers to/from NI.

 

Also, depending on what sort of deal we finally end up with then a soft border will likely make it easier to ship goods via Ireland (good for both sides) which is going to undermine British ports and airports (not quite so good for us).

 

Of course, Irish people talk differently to us so Brexiters don't give two hoots about what happens to them. We should be eternally grateful that the EU is insisting we sort this mess out now.

[Carlinate]

But the other 25 will follow what Macron and Merkel say.

And May-I-please will follow suit with what they want.

 

Will they?

 

A year or so back every EU country bar one wanted to sign up to a trade deal with Canada which had been negotiated over nearly ten years.

 

Romania who had only been a member of the EU since 2007 didn't like the visa arrangement that they had with Canada so they vetoed it and it had to be renegotiated.

 

What happens if Spain decide they can get Gibraltar back in this scenario?

 

Given the Conservative negotiation technique as shown in the DUP fiasco ( commit yourself publicly to someones support before actually agreeing that support ) Spain may have started eyeing up the Channel Isles and the Isle of Wight!