The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[chalga]

I think the EU farmers will have more to worry about than rotting crops when CAP cuts bite.

 

I'm sure the left behind and forgotten who voted for Brexit to improve their lives will be dancing in the streets when they hear that their Brexit dividend is rotting crops in France.

[ez8004]

The affluent middle-class liberal's world is falling apart.

 

Pass the popcorn.

 

Not from where I am sitting. The liberals resurgence under Corbyn's Labour with the younger voters essentially means that it will only be a matter of time for them to govern. The right wing Brexiters' days are already numbered.

 

The current Tories are not changing the status quo in anyway with regards to the tax system. So I am sitting very pretty where I am, thank you very much. As others have said, there are benefits and I just found ways to exploit them

[Magilla]

VIVA LE FRANCE ...BRING BACK BEHEADING STARTING WITH THE PHILESTINES AND PEADOS

 

Cool storey bro....

[Cyclecar]

My first post on this thread. Apologies if I tread on anyone's toes.

 

1. We will leave the EU.

 

Some are having difficulty in accepting that. There is no extension to Article 50 in EU law (more anon). Two years and clunk....................

 

2. The object of any negotiation is that both sides work towards an accommodation, somewhere in the "middle".

 

Monsieur Barnier, an intelligent and urbane man, cannot move away, on some issues, from what is enshrined in EU law. So whatever Mr. Davis offers - large or small - is irrelevant, M. Barnier is unable to shift. Period. You cannot negotiate with a brick wall.

 

3. This brings up the likelihood that, at the end of the "process", the EU side will have to refer the whole deal to the EU Court. And you think we are being accused of foot-dragging. Just wait for that ........

 

4. British industry and commerce is asking for clarity. A perfectly reasonable request.

 

There will be no clarity, even murky clarity, until February 2019. History in the EU is of a 59th minute, 11th hour scenario.

 

5. Who has the most to lose by Brexit. UK ? The other 27 members?

 

No, the EU itself. Brussels is facing a near 20% drop in it's income, whether at once, or on the drip. If it were a business it would have to replace the revenue, or downsize. Fat chance. So the people most energized by Brexit are the EU senior employees, Junker, Barnier, etc al. Because, let's face it, it's the employees that are running the business, not the shareholders..............

[tzijlstra]

 

No, the EU itself. Brussels is facing a near 20% drop in it's income, whether at once, or on the drip. If it were a business it would have to replace the revenue, or downsize. Fat chance. So the people most energized by Brexit are the EU senior employees, Junker, Barnier, etc al. Because, let's face it, it's the employees that are running the business, not the shareholders..............

 

Euhmmmm? Proof? Source?

[Magilla]

No, the EU itself. Brussels is facing a near 20% drop in it's income, whether at once, or on the drip.

 

15% at the next budget cycle.

 

If it were a business it would have to replace the revenue, or downsize. Fat chance.

 

Pretty sure they're downsizing, however, "passporting" for financial services accounted for ~70bn to the UK exchequer. That'll be going to EU member states in the next cycle unless we remain in the EEA and continue to contibute, so I have a feeling they'll be able to plug the gap somehow. The funding shortfall is pretty small in comparison to what we stand to lose.

 

So the people most energized by Brexit are the EU senior employees, Junker, Barnier, etc al. Because, let's face it, it's the employees that are running the business, not the shareholders..............

 

Nah, the leaders of the EU27 are under no political pressure regarding Brexit, unlike in the UK. It's rarely front page news and EU member state populations seem happy to let the senior employee's handle it from the coverage I've seen.

 

The reality is that Brexit could be the best thing that happened to the European Union:-

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/brexit-european-union-negotiations/

 

The irony is that by running away from a European Union they thought was about to fall apart, Brexiteers have instead made it stronger. Voters in France and the Netherlands are rejecting populism, and politicians in Brussels and Berlin have switched gears towards reforms and pro-EU spending measures.

 

From a game theory perspective, we think the Brexit negotiations are likely to lead to a bad deal for the UK, which it will eventually have to accept.

Edited November 4, 2017 by Magilla

[ez8004]

No, the EU itself. Brussels is facing a near 20% drop in it's income, whether at once, or on the drip. If it were a business it would have to replace the revenue, or downsize. Fat chance. So the people most energized by Brexit are the EU senior employees, Junker, Barnier, etc al. Because, let's face it, it's the employees that are running the business, not the shareholders..............

 

Hahaha. You have no idea. For starters the EU will move the Euro clearing system out of London to the continent. That would generate BILLIONS alone for the EU. Then I would charge the UK a stupid amount for EURATOM membership which we must join otherwise we can’t source nuclear material from any other route. Then I would slap tariffs on everything we try to export as we default to WTO rules.

 

We can’t win in these negotiations. We have no experience in something like this whereas the EU have hundreds of civil servants who have done this for years.

[chalga]

My first post on this thread. Apologies if I tread on anyone's toes.

 

1. We will leave the EU.

 

Some are having difficulty in accepting that. There is no extension to Article 50 in EU law (more anon). Two years and clunk....................

 

2. The object of any negotiation is that both sides work towards an accommodation, somewhere in the "middle".

 

Monsieur Barnier, an intelligent and urbane man, cannot move away, on some issues, from what is enshrined in EU law. So whatever Mr. Davis offers - large or small - is irrelevant, M. Barnier is unable to shift. Period. You cannot negotiate with a brick wall.

 

3. This brings up the likelihood that, at the end of the "process", the EU side will have to refer the whole deal to the EU Court. And you think we are being accused of foot-dragging. Just wait for that ........

 

4. British industry and commerce is asking for clarity. A perfectly reasonable request.

 

There will be no clarity, even murky clarity, until February 2019. History in the EU is of a 59th minute, 11th hour scenario.

 

5. Who has the most to lose by Brexit. UK ? The other 27 members?

 

No, the EU itself. Brussels is facing a near 20% drop in it's income, whether at once, or on the drip. If it were a business it would have to replace the revenue, or downsize. Fat chance. So the people most energized by Brexit are the EU senior employees, Junker, Barnier, etc al. Because, let's face it, it's the employees that are running the business, not the shareholders..............

 

Another one that thinks Brexit is going to be judged in the UK,by the voiceless and forgotten who voted for it,by what happens in the EU..............it isn't,because they live in the UK,not the EU,so what happens in the future in the EU is irrelevent to them.

[El Cid]

5. Who has the most to lose by Brexit. UK ? The other 27 members?

 

 

I don't know the numbers, there are billions worth of trade going between the EU and the UK, the fact that Sterling is the weaker currency, tells me that its the UK that will suffer most.

Sterling has fallen more than 5%

[Total Chaos]

With the anti EU/Anti immigration messages coming out of the UK, many no longer want to. Also, the drop in the value of the pound in relation to the Euro makes Britain less competitive for their labour.

 

 

 

If you say so

 

 

 

I'm happy to read your "uncontrolled" media sources, what are they?

 

 

 

Well we've asked time and time and time again for info/media that shows Brexit in a positive light, but there doesn't seem to be any.

 

The pro-Brexit media gave up on that ages ago and now just run hatchet jobs on anyone who dares to point out the obvious.

 

Expectations are being rolled back almost on a daily basis. We've gone from "thrive" to "survive" and no one says "no deal is better than a bad deal" anymore, 'cos it's not true!

 

Even the head of Vote Leave says it's turning into a disaster!

 

As for Zombies, you'd still deny it was happening even as they started chomping down on you

 

 

---------- Post added 04-11-2017 at 16:24 ----------

 

 

Tell that to the Italians They've realised it's going to cost us far far more.

 

 

 

Blah blah blah, yes comrade!

 

Ahh, that's OK then, 'cos at least half the population will have to go without.

 

 

 

Clearly, you are well informed on the matter:-

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/16/chris-graylings-claims-that-uk-can-grow-more-dismissed-as-tripe

 

 

 

We already have record low unemployment.

 

 

 

Assuming they don't up sticks and leave, like the UK's car industry will on "no deal". In that case it's cheaper to make cars in Japan, and ship to Europe than via the UK's production facilities.

 

Investment in the UK is now negative, and the majority of exports for the last 6 months are people pulling their gold reserves out before it happens!

 

 

 

The majority of people coming into the UK never came from the EU to begin with. The countries we want to strike trade deals like India, Australia & Canada want free movement as part of those deals.

 

Less people from the EU doesn't mean less people! Just different ones.

 

With regard to jobs, there aren't enough British people to do them. The NHS being a perfect example of that.

 

I never answered your low employment question.

 

Same as the Tories did back in the 80s, but it was called the YTS. In 2017, its called an apprenticeship, SIA, Taxi course or route to employment scheme. Funded by the government. Why? if they are on a 6 week course for example, then they are not actively seeking employment... get it?