The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[Magilla]

Overall my point is;- if people could be guaranteed economic well being, would they give up on democracy? Their right to vote, their right to free speech, free association? I think a lot would.

 

A great question! I also think a lot would, not sure about losing free speech, free association but already, for many, the right to vote is an irrelevance.

[I1L2T3]

This is simply not true.

 

The EU is determined to impose a a very large financial settlement on the UK in order to deter other member states from leaving. A senior MEP, Hans-Olaf Henkel (the Deputy Head of the European Parliament's Industry, Research and Energy committee) has even gone on record as stating:

 

“I have the impression, by their public statements, that indeed they would like to set an example [EU negotiators].

 

They want to punish Britain and make sure that no-one else is leaving the European Union.

 

The reason is simple. They would seek to make sure that Brexit is such a catastrophe that no country dares to take the step of leaving the EU again."

 

---------- Post added 05-11-2017 at 08:52 ----------

 

 

Again, this is not accurate.

 

A House of Lords Select Committee that oversees British EU policy were warned back in January 2016, in Brussels, that if the UK voted to leave in the referendum then the EU would force a draconian Brexit deal in a bid to deter other countries from leaving.

 

“My concern is that if we vote to leave that the deal we’d be given would be such that no one else would want to leave. We would bear the brunt of the angry other 27 EU countries,” Catherine Bearder, a British Liberal Democrat MEP said at the time.

 

The EU had threatened the UK that if we didn't vote to remain, we would face a financial punishment beating. What a lovely club to be a member!

 

So if Brexit fails it’ll not be because it’s a ridiculously stupid idea?

 

It’ll be the fault of everybody else.

 

Ok......

 

You have to remember all the leaver rhetoric about toppling the EU, and you have to understand what that actually means for hundreds of millions of people. That’s the problem with leavers. It’s All pie in the sky fantasy that has no basis in reality but it’s highly threatening. You’ve chosen to make the EU an enemy without understanding that the EU is 28 countries. Don’t be surprised if the other 27 fight back.

[ez8004]

So if Brexit fails it’ll not be because it’s a ridiculously stupid idea?

 

It’ll be the fault of everybody else.

 

Ok......

 

You have to remember all the leaver rhetoric about toppling the EU, and you have to understand what that actually means for hundreds of millions of people. That’s the problem with leavers. It’s All pie in the sky fantasy that has no basis in reality but it’s highly threatening. You’ve chosen to make the EU an enemy without understanding that the EU is 28 countries. Don’t be surprised if the other 27 fight back.

 

A lot of Leavers seem to not understand that the negotiations have to cater for 445 million EU citizens versus 65 million. Guess who shouts loudest in this match up?

[retep]

A lot of Leavers seem to not understand that the negotiations have to cater for 445 million EU citizens versus 65 million. Guess who shouts loudest in this match up?

 

An empty tin can makes the most noise?

[L00b]

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear.

Likewise, as I did not wish to come across vindictive or sanctimonious. Thank you for your follow-on explanation post

Most of the talking on internet forums and the TV is occupied with the economic effects of Brexit.

As right they should, since these will be the most immediately-felt (and longest-lasting) for everybody everywhere. But nowhere more so, than in the UK (and they are already being felt before Brexit).

 

Once outside the EU (on May's no ECJ terms, thus outside the EMA, EBA, EURATOM, Open Skies, the Customs Union, etc., etc., etc), everything that the UK must have to function domestically (all public services) and trade internationally (all regulatory and certifying bodies), has to be paid for out of domestic taxation income.

 

Domestic taxation income comes from economic activity, and adverse economic effects reduce taxation income. See UK income from taxation in the aftermath of the GFC, if any evidence was needed for that one.

 

If there's less tax income, there is less funds from which to pay NHS nurses and policemen, build roads and social housing, subsidise childcare and set beneficent income thresholds for lower earners.

 

In that case, either the UK cuts its cloth or it borrows, or it does a mix of both to try and ease the pain (which is what Osbourne did from 2010).

 

It is not a difficult concept to understand.

No, I didn't forget reciprocated personal rights because I have always believed that EU citizens who are here would have the right to remain here. Most British people would support that 100%, I should think.

It's a laudable and honourable position.

 

But the reality is that we're a very long way from that state of affairs, and that the Home Office, the DExEU and much of the government is doing anything but reassuring EU citizens on the topic, through:

 

(i) their various messages (EU citizens are pawns, leaked post-Brexit immigration rules), and

 

(ii) their various actions (clear enforcement bias on, and historically-high levels of enforcement against, EU citizens; hundreds of 'get out now' letters sent by the Home Office to decades-settled and fully-legal EU citizens in the UK).

 

We're not 2nd class citizens, in law. But it's certainly felt that way for a good while now, in facts.

 

And if there is no deal, then we would be at the complete mercy of the UK government, as we become third party country nationals without visa overnight (and in breach of UK immigrations rules by default, by reason of same).

 

Rudd could do anything she wanted then, she'd have a blank cheque. Now think about the Henry VIII rule-by-decree clauses, which the government is still seeking as pat of the EU Withdrawal Bill, in that context. Yes, that does mean mass deportations in practice (if HMBF enforces with the same zeal as currently).

 

Others can do as they please, but the government's time is up so far as I'm concerned: I'm not waiting to find out (and better to move early-ish, i.e. by end Q1 2018 at the latest, to secure the "best" returning opportunities, before EU returnees begin to positively flood back, the closer we get to March 2019).

 

Don't get me started about the UK government's treatment of its own citizens in the EU as pawns as well. 'Shameful' does not even begin to describe it, particularly when it's the EU which is defending the rights of UK Brits in the EU.

The NI border. Yes, good point. I reckon that they will try to enforce a hard border, but seeing as it is 200 miles + long, has hundreds of crossing points and in some places even the locals aren't too sure exactly where the border is, it's a fail.

Neither the UK nor the EU has any choice, because WTO rules (and no, I'm not talking about the 'no Brexit deal' scenario here: the EU -as a WTO member- cannot not have a hard border with any third party country, neither can the UK -as a WTO member- not control customs once outside the Customs Union).

 

That's why the NI round peg is the most difficult to square, out of the core 3 issues. It's also why it is the issue about which we've heard the least from the UK or the EU.

 

You won't hear much from the EU about it, because (i) it's not the EU's responsibility to solve a UK-made problem (it is the UK's sovereign wish to leave the EU, which is creating the problem) and (ii) absent a UK solution, the EU is set to implement a hard border on the Eire side (because WTO, see above).

 

It might be highly impractical as you note -and expensive by reason of same, for the UK as much as for Eire (which would no doubt be helped a fair bit by the EU27)- and politically explosive as regards the GFA and the IRA.

 

But NI is getting a hard border with Eire whether it wants or not, unless

 

(i) the UK stays in the Customs Union (somehow - because so far, May's No ECJ red line precludes it completely) or

 

(ii) NI is figuratively 'cast adrift' from the UK with that 'hard border' set in the middle of the Irish sea (the only alternative to CU membership, and which absolutely needs an EU/UK deal - but then, I can't see that one flying with the DUP, and then remember who is May relying upon in Parliament).

 

It really is as simple and straightforward as that (...and not, due to the UK's political red line and Parliament majority situation).

The point I am trying to make is that when the EU removed democratically elected governments in Greece and Italy, very little was said in the UK. The BBC talked smoothly about "technocratic" government, whatever that may be, rather than national democracy being negated by the EU.

The EU did not 'remove' any democratically elected government.

 

The Italian and Greek electorates did the removal, by voting in alternatives when the said governments resigned. Democratically so indeed.

 

Accessorily, Varoufakis' government fell once Varoufakis realised -late in the day- that his 'financial cake and eating it' gameplay was never going to work with the EU.

Overall my point is;- if people could be guaranteed economic well being, would they give up on democracy? Their right to vote, their right to free speech, free association? I think a lot would.

This is a great question indeed, as noted by Magilla.

 

Because, in a roundabout way, that is essentially what so many Leave voters believing the Leave rethoric (£350m per week back in pocket, great deal with no change, cake and eating it <etc.> = "guaranteed economic well-being") did, when they voted Leave

Edited November 5, 2017 by L00b

[ez8004]

An empty tin can makes the most noise?

 

So 445 million don’t count? Your so called tin is wielding a much larger stick compared to what our government has.

 

I really hope the negotiations fall in favour for the EU. It would be satisfying to see the majority squirm as livelihoods and living standards plummet.

[I1L2T3]

Dirty business

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/04/boris-johnson-brexit-russia-trump

 

Putin’s poodles?

[retep]

So 445 million don’t count? Your so called tin is wielding a much larger stick compared to what our government has.

 

I really hope the negotiations fall in favour for the EU. It would be satisfying to see the majority squirm as livelihoods and living standards plummet.

 

Very nice, when are you moving to the EU?

[apelike]

Dirty business

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/04/boris-johnson-brexit-russia-trump

 

Putin’s poodles?

 

Oh dear, I cant stop laughing at remainers poor attempts to try and undermine Brexit, a case of people believing in fake news when they want to while dismissing the rest. Media Poodles more like!

 

Quote:

 

"People need to know if Russian roubles played any part in securing the small majority for Brexit on 23June 2016.”

 

Well I never got bribed, perhaps I should now ask for some Roubles as I feel left out!

[I1L2T3]

Oh dear, I cant stop laughing at remainers poor attempts to try and undermine Brexit, a case of people believing in fake news when they want to while dismissing the rest. Media Poodles more like!

 

Quote:

 

"People need to know if Russian roubles played any part in securing the small majority for Brexit on 23June 2016.”

 

Well I never got bribed, perhaps I should now ask for some Roubles as I feel left out!

 

You might not have but your Brexit icons might not be so squeaky clean.

 

No harm in finding out one way or the other if you are being led by Putin’s poodles.