The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[chalga]

All that says to me is that George Freeman (like everyone else) doesn't know what's going to happen and has come up with a Best Case and Worst Case Scenario

 

And there's more:

 

The IPPR is seen as a left-leaning thinktank, but it has just put out a statement endorsing what Nick Timothy, Theresa May’s former co chief of staff, said about Philip Hammond, the chancellor, in his Sun column.

 

Tom Kibasi, IPPR director and chair of the IPPR commission on economic justice said:

 

The IPPR commission on economic justice was welcomed to No10 in January this year to discuss the fundamental reforms that are necessary to improve the British economy for ordinary people.

 

Nick Timothy is right that there has been too little progress in promoting economic justice. Next week the chancellor has the opportunity to take the policy initiative and put economic justice at the heart of his budget.

 

At today’s IPPR commission on economic justice conference there is a striking degree of consensus from business and trade unions that fundamental change to economic policy is now required, with both the heads of CBI business group and the GMB trade union calling for more investment to promote economic growth.

 

 

 

Seems like some people are actually getting real and looking a the root cause of the problem in the UK,and stopped trying to blame the EU.

Edited November 14, 2017 by chalga

[Cyclone]

https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/12/russian-twitter-accounts-tried-to-influence-brexit/

 

Have we seen this one, more evidence for Russian propaganda influencing the vote.

[L00b]

Blair did make a Horlicks of it, like Brown did of the Lisbon Treaty. Enough said of ancient history, but it shows us how things work with the EU.

Things don't work with the EU any differently than in any other context where two parties have <for whatever reasons> diverging interests. And even then, I'd say that common sense alone dictates that things work somewhat better between parties (with diverging interests, e.g. UK forever wanting -and mostly getting- this/that/the other exception) within a same club, then between third parties at arms' length. But well. We are where we are.

This is where it all hinges. WTO is fine and UK PLC must gear up for it, and it will be fine.

No issue from me with that view.

 

The UK is -and always was- sovereign, whereby it is fully entitled to chart its own course as it sees fit.

 

Though the UK holds no sway over the constituent parts of UK plc (save of course for the policies and systems implemented to entice and facilitate UK plc's life).

 

WTO terms will be fine (after adjustment), *if* the current government (or the next) gets their head out of their a55 in one big hurry, and starts rolling out everything which the UK *must* have in place and running by 23:01 GMT on 29 March 2019. If it doesn't, then this 'adjustment' will just take longer and might be a tad more uncomfortable for the average John Smith.

 

Nothing pro- or anti-Brexit in that, just restating the cold hard pragmatic reality dictated by WTO terms.

It's a two sided point though as the prospect of No Deal is as unpalatable for the EU as it is for the UK.

 

In my opinion a genuine No Deal, goodbye, seeya, adieu, arrivederci, bon voyage, will bring the EU back to the table for three reasons.

First the EU NEEDS the UK's money like a child needs its mother.

Second, business and industry won't allow their various national government's to screw up their business.

Finally, the prospect of the UK PLC tax haven sitting offshore like a carrier strike force is the stuff of their nightmares.

The EU doesn't NEED the UK's money. It's nice-to-have money, not lifeblood money.

 

In view of Barnier's public warning for the EU/27 to prepare for no deal this week, and based on the EU's prior form in this and other negotiations, I'm very confident that the EU has already worked out where to trim and by how much in their budgets in case of no exit bill/no deal. The EU is nothing if not prepared.

 

As for what business and industry want and/or "won't allow", well, we've seen the extent of that notion in the UK (with a pro-business party at the helm all along) since June 2016, haven't we? They are as hostage to the ideology-driven political agenda as the rest of the UK (the non-plc bit ). After that, it's just numbers. On the EU27 side, a 400m+ single market with bigger and stronger national economies than the UK and accelerating growth. On the UK side, a 65m+ single market (perhaps: what of NI?) with stalling growth. Place your bets

 

As for the prospects of the UK sitting as a tax haven, you really need to look into the US-EU combined efforts of the past decade-and-a-bit to rid the globe of tax havens: the US won't allow the Apple, Google, Nike <etc.> of this world to offshore-harbour profits into the UK, any more than the EU will, and both will make this a hinge point (amongst so many others) within future 'trade agreements'.

 

---------- Post added 14-11-2017 at 13:50 ----------

 

https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/12/russian-twitter-accounts-tried-to-influence-brexit/

 

Have we seen this one, more evidence for Russian propaganda influencing the vote.

See here:

If you do a fair bit of digging, and subject to your trust in third party reports, their alleged capacity for politico-electronic skulduggery appears to exceed their military capacity quite significantly and, looking at Brexit, Trump and Renzo (to say nothing of their now de facto annexation of Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Georgia, his run-n-love-ins with Erdolf, etc.), with the results to show.

 

Putin is a time-served master of Realpolitik, and wholly unencumbered by any rules of engagement (a.k.a. domestic opposition and systemic checks & balances). He's not too dissimilar to ISIS and other ultra-nationalists in that respect: he pushes and probes for gain constantly, tirelessly, relentlessly and only pauses or gets checked by force. And to say that he's perfectly understood the force-multiplying effect amd multifarious roles and uses of electronic warfare is a very mild understatement. Wholly unsurprising, given his professional spook background.

 

Ignore it at your peril.

and here:

Putin doesn't need to expect anti-EU rethoric in return for services rendered: Marine has been engaging in anti-EU rethoric for free, pushing Frexit and a return to the French Franc as part of her political platform for years

 

As for the said services, opinion shaping and election meddling through disinformation campaigns across social media outlets (known to intelligence services as 'fancy bear' aka 'advanced persistent threat APT28' and 'cozy bear' aka 'advanced persistent threat APT29'), they are fully expected by French and German governments and their intelligence services. Who have been putting the corporate backs of Facebook and the likes against the wall for the past 2 weeks over there.

 

Needless to say, not much heard about it on this side of the Channel, has there?

 

---------- Post added 13-01-2017 at 16:57 ----------

 

Topically, look who just happened to turn up at Trump Towers yesterday afternoon (12 January), for a cosy latte with her partner Louis Alliot, Guido Lombardi (the "Italian LePen Sr", Google Italy and Northern League) and Pierre Ceyrac (long-time professional influence peddler and Moonist)...?

 

What, rather an incongruous lot?

 

You don't say!

I think many will be surprised by the relevance to Brexit, of the ongoing US investigation about interference by Russia in the US presidential election and the alleged collusion between Trump & Putin. There are good reasons why Mr Farage and friends mentioned in this article are all persons of interest to that US investigation: the geopolitical interests of Putin and the economic interests of Farage's backers clearly converge.

 

Time will tell, there's a long way to go about all that yet.

Edited November 14, 2017 by L00b

[apelike]

https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/12/russian-twitter-accounts-tried-to-influence-brexit/

 

Have we seen this one, more evidence for Russian propaganda influencing the vote.

 

That a bit of a laugh, using twitter..

 

Do you think the makeup of those that voted leave (according to some) under educated, poor, disafected and the old are using twitter accounts?

[SnailyBoy]

That a bit of a laugh, using twitter..

 

Do you think the makeup of those that voted leave (according to some) under educated, poor, disafected and the old are using twitter accounts?

 

Do you use Twitter?

[Flexo]

https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/12/russian-twitter-accounts-tried-to-influence-brexit/

 

Have we seen this one, more evidence for Russian propaganda influencing the vote.

 

Day by day we are learning the extent of Russia's influence on the Brexit leave campaign.

 

Brexit, the ministers, the professor and the spy: how Russia pulls strings in UK

 

Russian money is behind Aaron Banks, Nigel Farage, the Leave campaign, Brexit Central....

[chalga]

Day by day we are learning the extent of Russia's influence on the Brexit leave campaign.

 

Brexit, the ministers, the professor and the spy: how Russia pulls strings in UK

 

Russian money is behind Aaron Banks, Nigel Farage, the Leave campaign, Brexit Central....

 

Don't forget this either:

 

 

http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/research/investigations/breitbart-report/

 

 

 

A rightwing plot to shape Europe’s future

 

 

When former UKIP leader Nigel Farage was snapped having dinner with President Trump and his family by a fellow diner in late February, it caused a flurry of interest from the British media. What was not reported, but of far more significance, was the meeting Farage had earlier that afternoon.

 

Farage gatecrashed dinner with Donald Trump because he was in the area. In fact, he had just spent three hours at the White House with the President’s chief strategist, Steve Bannon.

 

The pair had a lot to catch up on. They had a lot to discuss and plan.

 

As this report shows, Bannon and farage have got to know each other well over the last few years.

 

UKIP had been identified by Bannon’s Breitbart operation several years ago. Bannon launched Breitbart London to help UKIP ahead of the 2015 General Election. Breitbart’s key funder Robert Mercer supplied Farage’s anti-EU campaign, Leave.EU, with the data tools that helped secure the Brexit vote and the UK’s departure from the European Union.

 

In turn, Farage’s Brexit success provided Bannon, and his political master Donald Trump, with the inspirational story of the underdog defying the political establishment.

 

This report shows that Breitbart is not a news website or a media outlet in any ordinary sense and its staff are not mainstream journalists. Breitbart is a political project, with a specific political agenda, staffed by willing propagandists.

 

It distorts and fabricates news to deliberately incite anger in its supporters and fear in others. It pollutes the political space and demonises and vilifies its opponents.

 

Breitbart is just one part – albeit a vital part – of a wider political project that set Britain on a path to leave the European Union and got Donald Trump elected to the most powerful job in the world.

Edited November 14, 2017 by chalga

[altus]

UKIP had been identified by Bannon’s Breitbart operation several years ago. Bannon launched Breitbart London to help UKIP ahead of the 2015 General Election. Breitbart’s key funder Robert Mercer supplied Farage’s anti-EU campaign, Leave.EU, with the data tools that helped secure the Brexit vote and the UK’s departure from the European Union.

Further to that: Ukip whistleblowers raised fears about Breitbart influence on Brexit

Two internal Ukip whistleblowers filed complaints to the UK’s Electoral Commission over fears the party was making “unusual arrangements” with a pro-Trump website in the months before the 2016 EU referendum, the Guardian has learned.

 

The concerns included allegations that individuals who were being paid by Breitbart, a rightwing American news organisation, were working as senior unpaid Ukip volunteers, raising questions in their minds about whether their work could be construed as an indirect political donation by a foreign donor, according to sources who spoke to the Guardian on the condition of anonymity.

 

One whistleblower told the Guardian that concerns that the party was turning to “off-balance-sheet financing”, possibly in violation of UK rules, prompted the decision to turn to the electoral commission.

[retep]

Meanwhile,

"Nigel Farage calls on EU to investigate George Soros funding, collusion"

https://www.rt.com/uk/409818-farage-soros-funding-europe/

[Cyclone]

That a bit of a laugh, using twitter..

 

Do you think the makeup of those that voted leave (according to some) under educated, poor, disafected and the old are using twitter accounts?

 

Funny, 'according to some' as if it's at all disputed.

And yes, twitter is full of the under educated, not so much the elderly.