The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[monkey104]

The psyche where half of it swallowed the lies of the leave campaign, funded by the Russian program to destabilise the EU... Perceptive bunch, the 52%.

 

As opposed to the lies of the remain campaign where every government department put out a doom and gloom story about how Brexit would affect us all and that it would result in chaos and anarchy!

[ENG601PM]

eh? that DOESNT make what you claim correct nor does it make what i said incorrect, we vote in meps, you know how voting works right?

 

And there you've amply demonstrated that you don't know how EU voting works.

 

You don't vote in an MEP, you vote in the party. That's how the Conservatives replaced Kirkhope with Proctor without you even knowing, never mind giving you a chance to vote for him. The EU isn't a democracy in any way that you know it.

 

See what I mean, you didn't know that, and I will admit that neither did I at one time. Again, 99% of people in this thread won't know that. The more people learn about the EU the more they tend to dislike and distrust it. I went on this journey, I hope you do too, and arrive at your own conclusions instead of blindly accepting the ones that EU propagandists feed people.

[melthebell]

 

You don't vote in an MEP, you vote in the party.

exactly, you get the mep for the party you want in, they are still elected. you saying they are unelected is lies, no matter how much you argue, it is lies

[RJRB]

As opposed to the lies of the remain campaign where every government department put out a doom and gloom story about how Brexit would affect us all and that it would result in chaos and anarchy!

 

Both cases remain to be proved in the fullness of time.

As things stand at the moment the prognosis for the next 10 years for the British economy is distinctly gloomy according to the Chancellor.

Our economy is underperforming against our competitors and I fail to see how Brexit will improve our finances.

We will lose some more of the little manufacturing that remains,and there are numerous reasons why our financial centres will be under threat from Paris and Frankfurt.

[L00b]

I'm told by Leavers like you that they're a "price worth paying": so pay up and shut up.

Come along now Loob, you're one of the more considered opinions here (even if you're wrong ) and we've not fallen out yet so please don't start putting words in my mouth.

Are you admitting that there can be such a thing, as a price tag for Brexit that is not worth paying, here?

 

I'm human, and so fallible: of course I can be wrong. And I've been posting on here long enough, that the fact that I don't mind admitting to the fact when it is proven, can be verified easily enough through relevant searches. /See e.g. EDIT below/

 

But so far, on Brexit, I haven't been. Not since posting in the very first "EU Referendum: how will you vote?" thread. Small representative sample:

 

Post 567 here. 17 June 2016, likelihood of remain majority vote in NI & Scotland:

It's not beyond the realm of possibility -in fact it's very much within the realm of political reality- that where England votes majoritarily Brexit, each of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland votes majoritarily Remain.

 

Post 6490 here. 23 June 2016, EU gets stronger negotiating hand because default WTO situation when Art.50 TEU is up:

Once the UK's membership is resiliated, 2 years from the PM depositing the article 50 TFEU declaration (unless the EU consents to an extension of time beyond 2 years - which is doubtful), the existing trade arrangements are likewise resiliated. Whether a deal is signed by that time or not.

 

What then remains as default is the WTO rules, of which the UK is a member independently of the EU. The WTO rules are significantly less friendly to the UK than EU rules. So that situation would automatically give the EU member states a stronger negotiating hand (...whence my belief that an extension of the article 50 TFEU 2 year period is doubtful).

 

Post 6504 here. 23 June 2016, consequence of no deal situation, including UK loss of benefit of EU FTAs:

The EU (each EU member state within-) applies WTO tariffs to non-EU states to varying extents, subject to the EU's free and non-free trade agreements with some of these non-EU states and the absence of any agreements with other non-EU states.

 

It's perfectly possible to derogate from standard WTO tariffs in large or discrete respects. Provided that there is an agreement between consenting parties (e.g. EU and Canada recently, US/MX/Canada under NAFTA <etc.>) and that the clauses of the FTA are according to those WTO rules and conditions that permit free trade between members.

 

So, no more EU membership = no more benefitting from the EU's WTO-compliant FTAs with non-EU countries.

 

No pre-existing agreement between the UK and the countries with which the EU has a WTO-compliant FTA = no agreement in place between the UK and these countries (which includes the other EU member states, to be sure)

 

No agreement = standard WTO tariffs apply.

 

As a WTO member, not applying standard WTO tariffs = WTO arbitration and fine.

All pre-referendum opinions which have since been fully validated by officials of both sides and the media. I have many more, where these came from

 

Don't. Poke. Lions.? Told. You. So.

 

EDIT, worth adding in the context of this 'recap' post: Post 2132 here. 10 January 2017, interim summary of opinions:

 

Once again. I'm happy to let events unfold and vindicate me over time.

 

As they have done so far, 6 months on: still no Article 50, still no plan, High Court challenge win, Sterling down, inflation beginning to increase.

 

<...>

 

EDIT: do you want a recap of my 'next' ones? Supreme Court appeal failure, Article 50 no earlier than this summer (if it happens), still no plan, Sterling further down, inflation >3% (maybe up to 5%) at year end. I'm currently mulling over adding a 2nd referendum about the actual (negotiated) brexit terms to the list, but that's still a real outlier with a 2019 horizon, I may end up dismissing it yet

I was wrong about the timing of Art.50 (never expected May to be this dumb, but well, we've all been learning to expect the unexpected from that lot, in that respect). For the rest, correctamundo across the line.

 

And for the avoidance of doubt: no, there isn't going to be a 2nd referendum by March 2019. At the most, a Parliamentary vote, which is imbecilic (since the choice shall necessarily be between '<whatever> deal' and the cliff-edge 'no deal'). No salvation to be expected in that respect, from the Tories getting kicked out of power before then...because Corbyn wants out of the EU just as much.

 

Just so you know: I'm not enjoying being proven right that much. Visiting some well-deserved Schadenfreude on Leavers is nice, but that's the end of it. I quite liked my life here, until about early 2017.

Edited November 23, 2017 by L00b

[tzijlstra]

Name 5 MEP's now, including one that you voted for. Do it without checking the internet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can't, and 99% of people in this thread can't either.

 

There's your EU democracy in a nutshell. If you don't care enough to know your MEP's you can't be taken seriously when you acclaim EU democracy.

 

Name five local councillors now, including one that you voted for. Do it without checking the internet.

 

 

 

You can't, and 99% of people in this thread can't either.

 

There's your local democracy in a nutshell. If you don't care enough to know your local councillors you can't be taken seriously when you acclaim democracy.

 

(By the way, same goes for MPs, people are usually able to name the Prime Minister and sometimes one or two others in the cabinet.)

 

Nothing to do with a lack of democracy, rather a bit of a strawman to claim it.

[I1L2T3]

As opposed to the lies of the remain campaign where every government department put out a doom and gloom story about how Brexit would affect us all and that it would result in chaos and anarchy!

 

But you won......

 

It’s your lies that matter now....

[monkey104]

What are you on about 'won'. It was a democratic vote by the people of this country. Yes both sides lied but remainers keep conveniently forgetting that.

[gomgeg]

But you won......

 

It’s your lies that matter now....

But you didn't believe them, and non of us who voted for brexit are complaining, so why are you?

[SnailyBoy]

What are you on about 'won'. It was a democratic vote by the people of this country. Yes both sides lied but remainers keep conveniently forgetting that.

 

What did the remain campaign say about the effect leaving would have on the economy?

 

Edit, found it

 

'9 out of 10 economic experts say our economy would be damaged. The value of the pound would fall, meaning the cost of your shopping and mortgage rates would rise, and the value of your home and pension would fall'

Read more at http://www.strongerin.co.uk/get_the_facts#7qmUoaX54hwyBHHw.99

 

So that's already true, and we haven't left yet.

Edited November 23, 2017 by SnailyBoy