The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[L00b]

*my bold

 

I am a little unsure who is the 'Northern Ireland Excutive and Assembly'. If it is the elected representatives of the people then their 'agreement' will depend on who they are i.e. Unionists or Republicans.

That second bit in bold about the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly, is the red bridge which May sold to the DUP about no UK/NI sea border to get this early phase over, and lies completely outside the EU's purview.

 

On the face of it, it has no place in the document. The UK's internal arrangements, domestic constitution, etc, are a matter for the UK alone; they are no business of the EU's, and the EU would be scrupulous about respecting this principle. So the EU would never ask for this provision, nor take any particular comfort from it. If anything, they'd be a bit uncomfortable with it. So this has been inserted to placate someone in the UK. And who might that be?

 

Arlene has tweeted that the DUP have obtained "very clear confirmation that the entirety of the UK is leaving the single market and the customs union". Strictly speaking that's not correct. Nothing in the document confirms that the UK will leave, but this is the only provision that even acknowledges that it will leave, so this is the provision that Arlene must be talking about.

Either way it seems the terms of our trade with Europe is now in the hands of the people of Northern Island.

Correct.

 

Except that first bit in bold about the absence of agreed solutions, translates it from being in their hands, to now being at least etched in stone (not yet "carved": that's for phases 2 and 3 ). If you look at the text:

 

"The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements."

 

Meaning, the UK is now on record as guaranteeing the avoidance of a hard border. And "any future arrangements" (i.e. an EU/UK trade deal) must be compatible. In other words, the UK accepts that there will be no EU/UK trade deal unless it is compatible with no hard border.

 

"The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship."

 

Meaning, the UK wants a trade deal that delivers an open border.

 

"Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."

 

Meaning, if the UK fails to negotiate a trade deal with the EU that delivers an open border, it will still maintain regulatory alignment with SM/CU rules which support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the GFA.

 

The short version of this:

 

1. If the UK wants an EU trade deal, then they understand and agree that the only feasible trade deal will be one which is compatible with an open border in Ireland.

 

2. Even if the UK does not get an EU trade deal (e.g. because it cannot reach agreement on other points, or it changes its mind and decides it doesn't want one after all), the UK still agrees that it will maintain full alignment with both SM and CU rules supporting North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the GFA.

 

This means that the UK has less incentive to give up on an EU trade deal because it dislikes the degree of regulatory alignment which the deal demands: that is because, even if the UK gave up on it, it is still committed to a fairly high degree of regulatory alignment.

 

So, basically, at this stage it's a committal to a soft Brexit, in all but name.

Is that desireable?

Is that what we wanted?

It's certainly highly desirable for the socio-economic stability of the UK, so a very good development for UK residents.

 

But as to whether it's what "we" wanted (who's "we": you? Leavers? Remainers? the UK?)...

 

Put it that way, I'm 100% certain it's absolutely not what the Brextremists wanted, that's for sure. VoteLeave is tweeting about the UK capitulating this morning, so I'm surprised at the lack of frothing on the Express, Mail <etc.> front pages. I guess they lacked enough notice, so they'll catch up with the next print edition

Edited December 8, 2017 by L00b

[Flanker7]

......................................................................................................But as to whether it's what "we" wanted (who's "[i[we[/i]": you? Leavers? Remainers? the UK?...)...Put it that way, I'm 100% certain it's absolutely not what the Brextremists wanted, that's for sure. VoteLeave is tweeting about the UK capitulating this morning, so I'm surprised at the lack of frothing on the Express, Mail <etc.> front pages. I guess they lacked enough notice, so they'll catch up with the next print edition

 

Considering Northern Ireland voted to remain.

Then this is a victory for them. Not bad for 18 out of 650 MP's

 

Let frothing commence.

[chalga]

Farage has already frothed,he's said that the next stage of the UK being humiliated can now begin.

[I1L2T3]

So it’s confirmed. People born in NI get to retain EU citizenship.

 

The implication is that people born in GB don’t. Think about that for a minute. What does it mean for you?

 

---------- Post added 08-12-2017 at 09:22 ----------

 

Farage has already frothed,he's said that the next stage of the UK being humiliated can now begin.

 

Why? May has just secured his pension. Thought he’d be heading to Wetherspoons early for a celebratory pint of bitter.

[ENG601PM]

And both are greater nett contributors to the EU than the U.K.

In fact the Netherlands is top of the tree.

 

Do you know, I think that you actually believe the guff that you write.

[L00b]

Do you know, I think that you actually believe the guff that you write.

The Netherlands might not contribute as much as the UK in total value, but The Netherlands certainly contributes the most to the EU budget per head. The UK is 8th on that particular scale.

 

It's a widely-published fact.

[SnailyBoy]

So it’s confirmed. People born in NI get to retain EU citizenship.

 

The implication is that people born in GB don’t. Think about that for a minute. What does it mean for you?

 

---------- Post added 08-12-2017 at 09:22 ----------

 

 

Why? May has just secured his pension. Thought he’d be heading to Wetherspoons early for a celebratory pint of bitter.

 

I wonder if that applies to descendants of people born in NI, as per Irish citizenship?

[Supertramp]

Farage has already frothed,he's said that the next stage of the UK being humiliated can now begin.

 

First stage was electing that **** as a representative.

[chalga]

Bloomberg are reporting that the financial settlement is between 40/45 Billion Euros.

[SnailyBoy]

Looks like we keep the EU rules and regulations through the transition period. So nothing much is going to change until 2021.