The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[monkey104]

Why are we still discussing this ? The UK is leaving the EU so let's get on with it. The term hard or soft means nothing to me. All I know is leave means leave nothing else.

 

Because they are all too busy point scoring, trying to disprove each other's google inspired findings, abusing brexiteers of being thick ( very grown up way of proving your argument ), abusing remainers of having their head in the sand ( just as grown up ).

But they seem to spend a lot of time on the old adage ' not happy unless you are moaning'.

[Lord Rex]

Why are we still discussing this ? The UK is leaving the EU so let's get on with it. The term hard or soft means nothing to me. All I know is leave means leave nothing else.

It is still being discussed because there are too many sore loses including politicians who don't respect the referendum result, delivered by our democratic people. You are correct leave does mean leave and nothing else. When Elvis left the building, he didn't have one foot in the building and one foot out, because he left the building.

[Carlinate]

It is still being discussed because there are too many sore loses including politicians who don't respect the referendum result, delivered by our democratic people. You are correct leave does mean leave and nothing else. When Elvis left the building, he didn't have one foot in the building and one foot out, because he left the building.

 

But fortunately for the King he knew where he was going, to a gold plated Cadillac and then back to Graceland where a beautiful young lady ( or two ) was waiting for him down in the Jungle room.

 

We on the other hand don't have a clue where we are headed, out isn't a definitive destination.

[Puggie]

So you think, and that's as may be...

 

...but how many more businesses (relative to those which have already jumped ship and to those which are in advanced/terminal relocation preparations) are going to wait that long? The competitive private sector world, never less so than in services, doesn't wait for them.

 

I'll let you in on a little secret.. the number of businesses that are actually engaged in cross-border trade of goods with the EU represents a small portion of the UK economy.

 

Services as you know accounts for the bulk of our economic output and it largely confines itself to national borders (with a few exceptions). We primary do business with ourselves in services. This is true for Britain and it's true for services in other EU countries as well.

 

We know that banking and finance is going to remain one of the most resilient sectors of our economy. The City will ride the Brexit wave ripple much better than the regions will. The vast majority of UK banks have little/no exposure to the EU. The few that do are already incorporated on the continent. Multinationals are adept at mitigating regulatory challenges, it's part of their DNA.

 

 

44 years of agreements, treaties and interwoven legislation and we can just walk away?

 

It's a misconception that we need to "untangle" every aspect of EU legislation. We're working towards a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in very unique circumstances.

 

The situation is unique because the traditional challenges of achieving an FTA don't exist. The usual technical challenges of sector-by-sector reciprocity of standards and regulation have already been achieved. We're already a fully compliant EU member. We are already starting from the ultimate position of zero-tariffs and equal parity.

[chalga]

Why are we still discussing this ? The UK is leaving the EU so let's get on with it. The term hard or soft means nothing to me. All I know is leave means leave nothing else.

 

You could have got on with it the day after the referendum,but are insisting on access to the EU single market,in other words,you don't like the club rules as they stand,so want out,but then want back in again on your terms,you've been told it's not going to happen,no cherry picking etc etc,so you have only wasted your own time so far instead of going ahead with 'leave means leave'.........personally,I hope you go right over the cliff edge with no deal in less than 2 years,the UK is nothing but trouble to the EU,and the sooner we are rid of you,the better Europe will be for it.

[L00b]

I'll let you in on a little secret.. the number of businesses that are actually engaged in cross-border trade of goods with the EU represents a small portion of the UK economy.

 

Services as you know accounts for the bulk of our economic output and it largely confines itself to national borders (with a few exceptions). We primary do business with ourselves in services. This is true for Britain and it's true for services in other EU countries as well.

In turn, I'll link you in on some non-secret, public domain information about the UK's trade in services, with the EU and not.

 

A 2017 Parliamentary report, so I don't think the source should cause much controversy?

 

The summary is worth excerpting, given the context of your post:

• The UK had an overall trade deficit of £71 billion with the EU in 2016. A surplus of £24 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of £96 billion on trade in goods.

• The UK had a trade surplus of £34 billion with non-EU countries. A surplus of £73 billion on trade in services outweighed a deficit of £38 billion on trade in goods.

• Services accounted for 40% of the UK’s exports to the EU in 2016. Financial services and other business services are important categories of services exports to the EU.

Do I hear an 'Ooops?'

We know that banking and finance is going to remain one of the most resilient sectors of our economy. The City will ride the Brexit wave ripple much better than the regions will. The vast majority of UK banks have little/no exposure to the EU. The few that do are already incorporated on the continent. Multinationals are adept at mitigating regulatory challenges, it's part of their DNA.

 

It's a misconception that we need to "untangle" every aspect of EU legislation. We're working towards a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in very unique circumstances.

 

The situation is unique because the traditional challenges of achieving an FTA don't exist. The usual technical challenges of sector-by-sector reciprocity of standards and regulation have already been achieved. We're already a fully compliant EU member. We are already starting from the ultimate position of zero-tariffs and equal parity.

Save for the little fact that the UK is now engaged in back-tracking from that best-access, zero state, instead of improving it still further. But well.

 

There's so much baseless assertions, wishful thinking and glossing over important consequences in the above, and so little time, bandwidth and server storage to start explaining how wrong they are...so I'll just cop out and won't. Because I (and many others) have already done it over hundreds of posts for the past 2 years or so. And because, when logic and rationality is clearly not sinking in, sometimes it's just easier to leave people to their opinions and let them learn life lessons the hard way. Arguably, such lessons are those best learned. Let's just call it the silver lining to the Brexit cloud

Edited July 4, 2017 by L00b

[Carlinate]

I'll let you in on a little secret.. the number of businesses that are actually engaged in cross-border trade of goods with the EU represents a small portion of the UK economy.

 

Services as you know accounts for the bulk of our economic output and it largely confines itself to national borders (with a few exceptions). We primary do business with ourselves in services. This is true for Britain and it's true for services in other EU countries as well.

 

We know that banking and finance is going to remain one of the most resilient sectors of our economy. The City will ride the Brexit wave ripple much better than the regions will. The vast majority of UK banks have little/no exposure to the EU. The few that do are already incorporated on the continent. Multinationals are adept at mitigating regulatory challenges, it's part of their DNA.

 

 

 

It's a misconception that we need to "untangle" every aspect of EU legislation. We're working towards a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in very unique circumstances.

 

The situation is unique because the traditional challenges of achieving an FTA don't exist. The usual technical challenges of sector-by-sector reciprocity of standards and regulation have already been achieved. We're already a fully compliant EU member. We are already starting from the ultimate position of zero-tariffs and equal parity.

 

The City don't appear to be quite as confident as you are about how it will go.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiV7PDI1O_UAhXIK8AKHQaQAJQQFgg9MAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2017%2Fmay%2F05%2Fbrexit-city-goldman-sachs-lloyd-blankfein-london-uk&usg=AFQjCNFM4HXbfpiG1bXLbGe5DaBTEJbDrw

 

There are plans in place for the major banks to move up to 9,000 jobs to Paris,Frankfurt, Luxembourg or Dublin over the next year or so.

 

That may be only the beginning of the exodus if there aren't massive assurances obtained from both our government and the EU.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjS6ubt1e_UAhVLLcAKHSojBekQFggtMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fbusiness%2Fnews%2Fbrexit-latest-news-banks-move-9000-jobs-britain-mainland-europe-eu-european-union-jpmorgan-hsbc-a7724231.html&usg=AFQjCNG6I-0_mdF96EekgPHHvIa5GNxn-Q

 

If we don't agree a Norway type deal and stay within the internal market the City will lose the EU passporting rights and that would be a major problem

 

Having said which the City is literally a law unto itself and will take whatever action it requires to protect itself. Should that action require relocating lock stock and barrel to an EU country then that's what will happen.

 

As for trade, we may have already achieved sector by sector standardisation but how does the EU ensure that we maintain those agreed standards after we leave?

 

Are we going to allow for EU oversight?

 

That'll go down well with the 'hard' Brexiteers won't it.

[hobinfoot]

You could have got on with it the day after the referendum,but are insisting on access to the EU single market,in other words,you don't like the club rules as they stand,so want out,but then want back in again on your terms,you've been told it's not going to happen,no cherry picking etc etc,so you have only wasted your own time so far instead of going ahead with 'leave means leave'.........personally,I hope you go right over the cliff edge with no deal in less than 2 years,the UK is nothing but trouble to the EU,and the sooner we are rid of you,the better Europe will be for it.

 

I'm sure Germany and France are looking forwards to paying billions more into the EU coffers because no one else will.

[chalga]

I'm sure Germany and France are looking forwards to paying billions more into the EU coffers because no one else will.

 

Nobody is bothered about your money,take the lot and go,ASAP,goodbye.

[L00b]

I'm sure Germany and France are looking forwards to paying billions more into the EU coffers because no one else will.

They're certainly looking forward to the EU never having to rebate the UK ever again after 2019, that is now a foregone conclusion. Even if the UK happened to change its mind and didn't want to Brexit anymore: cancelling the UK's rebate will be right at the top of the EU27's (many) conditions for the UK to be allowed to stay in.

 

They're also certainly looking forward to the EU naming its price for <whatever level of-> access to the Single Market eventually gets negotiated. Don't kid yourself, it will be billions. Hopefully (for your sake) not to the tune of £350m per week. Although that would be a deliciously sweet irony.

 

After (i) the UK settles its divorce bill, (ii) the accounting dust settles from the rebate/access fee and (iii) the EU Regional Development funds are pulled from the UK Regions, I don't think the EU is going to be that short, put it that way.

 

France is also certainly looking forward to naming its price for keeping the LeTouquet Agreement in place, lest it bins it and then Kent can start looking forward to hosting its own Jungle...that is, until its die-hard Tory contingent and the proximity with London both convince Theresa to ship them all wholesale to Cities of Sanctuary up'North. Now, which is the City of Sanctuary nearest to Sheff...Oh.

 

And can you guess who'll be paying for it all?

 

LOL!

Edited July 4, 2017 by L00b