The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[L00b]

The EU has one insuperable problem confronting it: no UK deal mean no UK money (and therefore a free UK departure).

The only way that the EU will have any claim for money is if it agrees a deal.

I think you'll find that the EU would have a juicy enough claim in respect of the UK's budgetary commitments to 2020 and, irrespective of one's opinion about the merit or not of that particular claim (you can't deny that there would be a serious matter to be heard and tried under the Vienna Convention at the very least), a slam dunk in respect of EU pension commitments for rights accrued to 29 March 2019. All to be heard before the ICJ in the Hague.

 

Then, going by the standard litigation playbook (considering all issues of brinksmanship to bring to bear), we can think about the UK's need requirement to have the EU well onside at the WTO, to avoid an international trade mauling by the US and the BRICs...m'kay?

 

The UK's money is nice-to-have money for the EU. Not life support money, very far from it. Not the first time this has been pointed out on here, plainly and clearly, with factual info and relevant links (as alluded to above by chalga, by reference to Farage's more recent waste of Barnier's time).

 

And it will be clear to all but the most blinkered by now, that the EU has consistently had a few furlongs' worth of headstart on the UK, across the board, and that it will keep it to March 2019 at the very least. Again, it's not as if some of us haven't tried to tell Leavers the how's and why's of it. Since before the referendum, an'all.

 

Perhaps, instead of moaning at arguments, analyses and informed opinions of 'remoaners', some Leavers should have inspired themselves from them to find a way to change the rules of the game for the UK's advantage (Sun Tzu said to do that, when one is losing the said game).

 

Instead, Leavers will just carry on moaning at 'remoaners', whilst pipe-dreaming at the UK's non-existent negotiating levers (alluded to by Jeffrey), and do whatever Barnier asks them regardless.

 

The fault for this situation, lies 100% at the feet of your government. Not the EU, not remainers, not Labour, not foreigners. May, her Ministers and her party: no-one else.

[Car Boot]

The EU is why we have the majority of employment rights that we have.

The idea that the tories will somehow be less pro big business than the EU is the most backwards thing I've ever seen.

 

We have the majority of employment rights today ONLY because sovereign British Parliaments enacted legislation to benefit the British people, mostly under pressure from trades unions.

 

Morgan Stanley, one of the many leading US finance houses that argued vociferously for the UK to remain in the EU has admitted that Brexit will be harmful to global capitalism and big business profits in general. If nothing else, this was a valid reason to vote Leave.

 

As Tony Benn long ago said:

 

"We are discussing whether the British people are to be allowed to elect those who make the laws under which they are governed. The argument is nothing to do with whether we should get more maternity leave from Madame Papandreou (a former EEC Commissioner)".

[tzijlstra]

The EU has one insuperable problem confronting it: no UK deal mean no UK money (and therefore a free UK departure).

The only way that the EU will have any claim for money is if it agrees a deal.

 

No it won't, the UK legally signed up for a bunch of arrangements that last until 2020. If the UK reneges on those pledges now it will have a hard time not being hit by negativity from the continent (and it will be its own doing).

 

In other news - Teresa trumpeted about the dropped credit card fees as a UK victory over banks. She failed to mention it was EU regulation that led to it. Symptomatic of the constant misguidance of the UK government re. the EU.

[tinfoilhat]

Supporters of the EU...

 

Mercenary defenders of global capitalism. Economic vampires who prey upon the member states and their populations. A marked superiority complex and contempt for the lower social classes drive a burning desire to perpetuate the new economic and political European World Order.

 

So aeveryone in the EU who supports it (and there are some very pro EU nations) are they stupid or oppressed or in on it? If you've noticed, the majority in this country is very much the minority accross Europe. Why aren't the French or Germans as clever as you in their recent elections and see through the EU lies?

[Fogey]

I have not once said that i voted to leave because of foreign workers,not once.My best friend is an immigrant why would i not like foreigners.I voted leave because i believe the European union to be an undemocratic organisation of unelected individuals telling us which countries we can deal with outside the eu,and imposing import taxes on these items.The eu does not seem to recognise democracy or fair world trade.The debacle of trying to deport criminals and terrorists who cost the country millions of pounds after some judge in Brussels decided it was against their human rights.Stop insinuating that everybody who voted leave is a xenophobe or racist.Most of these lies are being peddled by the young and especially the millennial champagne socialists.And on a note i do not read the Daily Mail or any other newspaper,i have better things to spend money on than newspapers.

 

Why do you believe the EU to be undemocratic? What do you think Nigel was doing all those years? Why do you think he was there? he didn't just rock up one day and demand a seat. He was elected! The unfairly much maligned commissioners are appointed, but effectively appointed by the various national governments. Sure, you don't elect everyone that works in the EU but then surely you don't expect to? You don't elect the council's social workers, you don't elect fire fighters, you don't elect Doctors or Nurses, they are appointed based on things like experience, training, ability e.t.c. Why don't you already know all this? it isn't like the information and its sources hasn't been provided on here and across various media sources thousands of times. What is wrong with you? Are you incapable of accepting that your information or beliefs are wrong in the face of overwhelming evidence?

[L00b]

Don't worry, the EU are quaking in their boots, didn't the man of the people say so after meeting Barnier?

Quite

The EU has toughened up its conditions for a post-Brexit transition deal for the UK, demanding that Britain abide by stricter terms on immigration, external trade agreements and fishing rights for nearly two years after it leaves the bloc. The revised “directives” drawn up by EU member states for Michel Barnier, Brussels’ chief negotiator, complicate the talks by giving him more precise instructions on several politically sensitive topics for the UK, according to a draft seen by the Financial Times. These include extending free movement rights and a special status to all EU citizens arriving before the final day of the transition at the end of 2020. It also requires that British ministers seek “authorisation” from Brussels in order to continue benefiting from EU trade deals that it would otherwise fall out of on Brexit day.

Lest we forget, May and Davis eventually signed up wholesale to the last set of " directives" (about stage 1 of the negotiations, published on day 1 of the negotiations in spring 2017). So if you're in business or simply managing your life plan, the above should give you a pretty clear idea of what the UK will (eventually) be signing up to next.

 

You may usefully reflect on the below as you digest the above, since the veil badly covering the true colours and agenda of the UK government keeps getting lifted:

 

One of Theresa May’s new ministers has claimed the UK’s plan to drop the EU charter of fundamental rights after Brexit would help avoid an “extra layer” of human rights, contradicting the government’s assurance that no protections would be lost.

 

Suella Fernandes, who was promoted to the Brexit department last week, had warned in November that transposing the “flabby” charter into British law would give UK citizens additional protections on issues such as eugenics, personal data and collective bargaining.

 

In an article written for the Telegraph she said the government was right not to copy the charter into the EU withdrawal bill because otherwise “lawyers will love the extra layers of rights and the fees that they bring, and it’s also a core part of the Brussels project too”.

 

Her comments directly undermine the government’s claims that it was only refusing to accept the EU charter of fundamental rights because the document was already covered by British law.

So, quite clear that the UK government is resolutely against granting its own citizens additional rights. And "Eugenics, personal data and collective bargaining" issues don't care one bit for the colour of a referendum or GE vote: they are about all of you, Leave and Remain voters alike and indiscriminate.

 

As with the referendum vote back in the day, ignore these signs and buy that minister's snake oil about "fat cat lawyers" at your collective peril

Edited January 16, 2018 by L00b

[Harrystottle]

Why aren't the French or Germans as clever as you in their recent elections and see through the EU lies?

 

The French and the Germans do not seem to be wedded to the idea of the nation state as strongly as we are. Don't forget that Jean Monnet was French.

From the French perspective, if you've had the Prussians / Germans storming into your country three times in seventy years you can see the downsides of the nation state pretty clearly, and buy into supra-national authority. If you are German you almost certainly will want to forget the recent history of your nation state and also buy into supra-national authority.

 

There is a journalist in the Guardian called Natalie Nougayrede who wrote once about growing up in Alsace in the 1980's and how they were taught at school about what a bad thing the nation state was. It was an interesting read but I can't find it now.

 

Perhaps the French having voted down the EU constitution only to see it reappear as the Lisbon Treaty have given up on the idea of opposing the EU? The record low turn out at the last election wasn't a resounding affirmation of Macron, after all.

Merkel had her worst ever result in the last German general election too, but obviously there are non-EU reasons for that.

Edited January 16, 2018 by Harrystottle

[Lockdoctor]

No it won't, the UK legally signed up for a bunch of arrangements that last until 2020. If the UK reneges on those pledges now it will have a hard time not being hit by negativity from the continent (and it will be its own doing).

 

The UK Government signed up for arrangements before the democratic UK people decided to leave the EU. The EU have had fair warning to make alternative funding arrangements. The notice period given should be considered to be similar to a break clause in a lease agreement.The EU can't have their cake and eat it by expecting the UK to pay for anything, if a no deal happens.

[tzijlstra]

The UK Government signed up for arrangements before the democratic UK people decided to leave the EU. The EU have had fair warning to make alternative funding arrangements. The notice period given should be considered to be similar to a break clause in a lease agreement.The EU can't have their cake and eat it by expecting the UK to pay for anything, if a no deal happens.

 

'The EU have had fair warning' - irrelevant. If I tell my bank I won't be paying the mortgage anymore that does not excuse me from paying the mortgage... That doesn't change because me and my wife both voted to stop paying.

 

---------- Post added 16-01-2018 at 09:52 ----------

 

There is a journalist in the Guardian called Natalie Nougayrede who wrote once about growing up in Alsace in the 1980's and how they were taught at school about what a bad thing the nation state was. It was an interesting read but I can't find it now.

 

I think nation states are a bad thing, that does not mean the Dutch don't have a sense of nationality.

[Lockdoctor]

'The EU have had fair warning' - irrelevant. If I tell my bank I won't be paying the mortgage anymore that does not excuse me from paying the mortgage... That doesn't change because me and my wife both voted to stop paying.

A lease is not the same as a mortgage. With a mortgage payments stop after full payment has been settled and the people or business remain in the building. With a lease payments continue for the amount of time a person or business is located in the building. The UK is leaving the EU, so no longer will be located in the EU, which is why I used a comparison to a lease rather than a mortgage.