The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[I1L2T3]

No, I think that's overstating it a bit. The government wouldn't be going to town with this nerve agent incident if that were the case.

 

So over the winter just gone if Russia had turned off the supplies to Europe what would have happened?

 

I’m not overstating anything. We’d have been in serious trouble.

[Fogey]

This one,

"A BEIS spokesman told Metro.co.uk: ‘Great Britain benefits from highly diverse and flexible sources of gas supply. ‘We estimate less than one per cent of our gas comes from Russia and are in no way reliant on it.’ They also told us that Liquefied Natural Gas supplies accounted for 12% of total UK gas supply in 2016. In 2016 – the latest consolidated stats – 46% of UK gas demand was met from UK production, it said. In the same time period, the UK received: 34% from Norway 11% from Qatar 6% from European pipelines Less than 1% from elsewhere"

 

http://metro.co.uk/2018/03/15/russia-going-turn-uks-gas-supply-off-7388488/

 

I think that as someone else has pointed out the European pipelines are supplied by a proportion of gas that comes from Russia. The claimed statistics vary wildly depending on source, but if we get a big chunk of gas from Europe, and Europe gets a big chunk of its gas from Russia, then Russia turning off the tap will affect us one way or the other as Europe will have less gas overall to share with us.

 

https://www.britishgas.co.uk/the-source/our-world-of-energy/energys-grand-journey/where-does-uk-gas-come-from

 

Does this discussion belong in a different thread?

[I1L2T3]

I think that as someone else has pointed out the European pipelines are supplied by a proportion of gas that comes from Russia. The claimed statistics vary wildly depending on source, but if we get a big chunk of gas from Europe, and Europe gets a big chunk of its gas from Russia, then Russia turning off the tap will affect us one way or the other as Europe will have less gas overall to share with us.

 

https://www.britishgas.co.uk/the-source/our-world-of-energy/energys-grand-journey/where-does-uk-gas-come-from

 

Does this discussion belong in a different thread?

 

It’s highly relevant to this thread given the geopolitical implications of Brexit.

 

On the one hand Brexiters can be seen to be playing into Russia’s hands. Doing Putin’s bidding. He wants to destabilise the EU and it’s working out well so far. Brexit depends on his plans succeeding in a way.

 

On the other hand we now have the U.K. and other nations taking common cause against Russia. An implication of that is at some point maybe Russia controlling gas supplies to adversely affect the EU and inevitably us.

 

Anything that brings us closer to the EU is going to be hated by Brexiters. Russian retaliation if it got to that point ties us and the EU closer together. We’d no longer be doing Putin’s bidding and could turn closer to Europe again.

 

Brexiters would rather we wreck our economy and drive ourselves apart from the EU. They want the same thing Putin wants and they don’t want to imagine scenarios where that is put in jeopardy.

[ricgem2002]

It’s highly relevant to this thread given the geopolitical implications of Brexit.

 

On the one hand Brexiters can be seen to be playing into Russia’s hands. Doing Putin’s bidding. He wants to destabilise the EU and it’s working out well so far. Brexit depends on his plans succeeding in a way.

 

On the other hand we now have the U.K. and other nations taking common cause against Russia. An implication of that is at some point maybe Russia controlling gas supplies to adversely affect the EU and inevitably us.

 

Anything that brings us closer to the EU is going to be hated by Brexiters. Russian retaliation if it got to that point ties us and the EU closer together. We’d no longer be doing Putin’s bidding and could turn closer to Europe again.

 

Brexiters would rather we wreck our economy and drive ourselves apart from the EU. They want the same thing Putin wants and they don’t want to imagine scenarios where that is put in jeopardy.

you are doing it again saying we want to wreck the economy:loopy: can i remind you we are not out yet and what you are saying is pure guesswork, you keep pulling people up on whats going to happen can you see into the future with your chrystal ball:hihi:

[I1L2T3]

you are doing it again saying we want to wreck the economy:loopy: can i remind you we are not out yet and what you are saying is pure guesswork, you keep pulling people up on whats going to happen can you see into the future with your chrystal ball:hihi:

 

There’s no scenario that has us being better off once we leave.

 

As I’ve asked before if you have any evidence of economic modelling that indicates otherwise just provide it.

 

Shouldn’t be too difficult. Now who has the crystal ball?

[L00b]

Does this discussion belong in a different thread?

It doesn’t if you factor in WTO tariffs on the foreign LNG supply post-Brexit

[melthebell]

you are doing it again saying we want to wreck the economy:loopy: can i remind you we are not out yet and what you are saying is pure guesswork, you keep pulling people up on whats going to happen can you see into the future with your chrystal ball:hihi:

there was obviously a crystal ball when people voted to leave, if you dont know the consequences why would you do it? unless you dont care?

 

the consistant lies over decades made people uncaring

[Cyclone]

The governments own predictions for brexit are terrible damage to the economy.

So either the brexiteers are happy with terrible damage, or they're happy with a leap into the unknown where terrible damage is likely. Either way is insane.

[I1L2T3]

there was obviously a crystal ball when people voted to leave, if you dont know the consequences why would you do it? unless you dont care?

 

the consistant lies over decades made people uncaring

 

I read an interesting analogy today. In its dying days the Soviet Union it was a communist state but nobody believed in communism any more.

 

Brexit is the same. It has its slogans, disciples, stock arguments and the basis of a kind of ideology. But nobody believes it can deliver the things it promised any more. But still the disciples hang on to the slogans and rhetoric while denying reality.

 

It’s quite sad. I still believe that sooner or later this country is going to come to its senses before it’s too late.

 

---------- Post added 30-03-2018 at 10:28 ----------

 

The governments own predictions for brexit are terrible damage to the economy.

So either the brexiteers are happy with terrible damage, or they're happy with a leap into the unknown where terrible damage is likely. Either way is insane.

 

And yet remainers are the ones accused of having a crystal ball. It’s comical.

[retep]

I think that as someone else has pointed out the European pipelines are supplied by a proportion of gas that comes from Russia. The claimed statistics vary wildly depending on source, but if we get a big chunk of gas from Europe, and Europe gets a big chunk of its gas from Russia, then Russia turning off the tap will affect us one way or the other as Europe will have less gas overall to share with us.

 

https://www.britishgas.co.uk/the-source/our-world-of-energy/energys-grand-journey/where-does-uk-gas-come-from

 

Does this discussion belong in a different thread?

 

Some information here which may explain where gas comes from,

 

"Gas pipelines

One way of importing gas from abroad is through pipelines that run under the sea. There are currently four of these pipelines, which run from the European continent to the British mainland:

 

The UK-Belgium interconnector (IUK): This pipeline runs between Bacton in Norfolk and Zeebrugge in Belgium, and connects Britain to the mainland Europe gas network. This pipeline has an import capacity of 25.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year. It is the only pipeline that is bi-directional, meaning it can both import gas to Britain as well as export gas to mainland Europe. The direction of flow depends on supply and demand and relative prices.

The UK – Netherlands pipeline (BBL): This runs from Balgzand to Bacton in Norfolk. This pipeline has an import capacity of 14.2 bcm a year.

The Vesterled pipeline link: This pipeline connects St Fergus in Scotland to a number of Norweigan gasfields. This pipeline has a capacity of 14.2bcm a year.

The Langeled pipeline: At the time of its commissioning in 2006 this pipeline, which runs from Nyhamna in Norway to Easington in Yorkshire, became the longest underwater gas pipeline in the world at 1,200km. The pipeline has a capacity of 26.3 bcm"

 

https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/energy-industry/gas-generation/gas-supplies.html