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The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]


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I want this to fall apart. One of the results would be for inflation to skyrocket. My pay is inflation linked. So I could get a 12% jump in three years. Can’t imagine the majority of everyone else having the same arrangements. Will be good to see how they cope.

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Amusingly you just picked a topic I know a little more than most about and you got barely a single thing right. I think you might have spelled O'Leary's name correctly.

 

Interesting to note that you chose not to correct me on any of it then! :D

 

---------- Post added 30-05-2018 at 16:19 ----------

 

Amusingly you just picked a topic I know a little more than most about and you got barely a single thing right. I think you might have spelled O'Leary's name correctly.

 

Interesting to note that you chose not to correct me on any of it then! :D

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You can’t see the parallels of the two countries being swung by right wing xenophobic rhetoric? Really?!

Yes, I can (although I'd dispute your comment about the swing's rationale and proponents). That's precisely why you need a new thread for what some now call 'QuItaly'!

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Interesting to note that you chose not to correct me on any of it then! :D

 

---------- Post added 30-05-2018 at 16:19 ----------

 

 

Interesting to note that you chose not to correct me on any of it then! :D

 

No point, it's all wrong. From IATA (you mean EASA) to the decades old CAA still being a functioning body rather than needing 5-10 years to create a new one. It's all wrong. Wrong.

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I'm not sure even the most hardcore of Brextremists realise the full impact of a no deal.

 

They are so entrenched in shouting 'project fear' at any suggestions as to how damaging a no deal outcome is, that they've no idea about the realities. Just one example is the Ryanair's warning to its passengers that tickets sold for flights within the UK may have to be cancelled post Brexit. This is not as a result of Michael O'Leary's stated opposition to Brexit but because Ryanair's lawyers have told them that they will not be insured to fly in UK airspace once the UK was no longer a member of IATA.

 

It is even worse for UK registered airlines as they will not be legally allowed to fly anywhere in the world* and probably not even insured to fly within the UK.

 

The great irony of this is that short of spending 5-10 years creating our own aviation authority and then having our aircraft certification approved worldwide, we will have to leave and rejoin IATA as an associate member which will leave us still subject to the European Court of Justice with no say over decisions. Something that the Brextremists promised us would end with Brexit! :D

 

(* except to a handful of third world countries and only then if they can get there via uncontrolled airspace)

 

The greenies should love that, think of the pollution it will save.

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No point, it's all wrong. From IATA (you mean EASA) to the decades old CAA still being a functioning body rather than needing 5-10 years to create a new one. It's all wrong. Wrong.

 

So you have gone from claiming that I have got everything wrong to that I have simply used the wrong acronym (which you corrected, showing that you knew exactly what I meant.)

 

The CAA only regulates aviation in the UK and that is only under the umbrella of EASA. An aircraft registered in the UK with a certificate of airworthiness issued by the CAA (A National C of A (non EASA)) can only fly in the UK. Anyone wanting to operate an aircraft outside the UK needs to be certificated by EASA. Yes, the CAA can be expanded into a full independent regulatory authority but as I said in my original post, it would take years and cost millions, possibly billions to harmonise all the regulations. Meanwhile nothing flies in or out of the U.K. Even within UK airspace, flights are controlled by the National Air Traffic Services which is a member of at least two organisations run by the European Commission so a no deal Brexit may even mean that flights within UK airspace are also grounded.

 

This really isn't 'project fear', it is the real world. We can scream and shout and stick two fingers up at Europe all we like but if we attempt to operate aircraft outside recognised safety regulations we will be doing so without insurance cover. This also means that UK based airlines will not even be able to sell airline tickets as IATA regulations (yes, I do mean IATA this time) require all airlines to be fully insured.

 

So we have two choices on 29 March 2019. We either walk away from the EU with no agreement in which case the economy takes an almighty hit from among other things, a completely none functioning aviation sector (this means import and export of goods as well as holiday makers flying to Spain) or we leave and rejoin EASA (and possibly IATA too) without any say in decision making and still under the jurisdiction of th ECJ.

 

So 'Brexit means Brexit' is meaningless nonsense. We live in an integrated, global world that we cannot extricate ourselves from without smashing our economy (and therefore standard of living) to pieces. Of course we were told all this during the referendum debate but it was shouted down by the Brextremists as just a lot of scare stories.

 

Almost two years on from the vote and I don't think many people, on either side, have really grasped what dangerous lunacy this entire exercise is.

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I'm not sure even the most hardcore of Brextremists realise the full impact of a no deal.
I'm quite confident that the wealthy ones do realise very well indeed, and that the poor ones don't at all.

 

I'm equally confident that you know as well as I do which of these is going to get sh4fted lenghtways and sideways (along with the middle class of course) :D

 

The greatest irony of it all, is that the UK will either Brexit with no deal (economic cataclysm), or with a Canada deal (due to T.May's red lines if they don't shift; economic uppercut and right hook), or with de facto EU membership but with no say in the rules (if Parliament gets the political upper hand or T.May / her successor bottles it; economic hard slap).

 

All of which scenarios are EU wins-UK loses. Didn't have to be this way, but well, we are where we are.

 

I see that none of the Italian Eurosceptics are making dramatic anti-EU pronouncements, and none of them run electoral platforms threatening their EU membership or their €zone membership: clearly, they've watched and learned (and listened to the experts: most of the Italian national debt is held by Italiand households; Italexit and/or drop the € and it's a haircut down to the marrowbone for everyone). Thanks UK :thumbsup:

Edited by L00b
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I'm quite confident that the wealthy ones do realise very well indeed, and that the poor ones don't at all.

 

I'm equally confident that you know as well as I do which of these is going to get sh4fted lenghtways and sideways (along with the middle class of course) :D

 

The greatest irony of it all, is that the UK will either Brexit with no deal (economic cataclysm), or with a Canada deal (due to T.May's red lines if they don't shift; economic uppercut and right hook), or with de facto EU membership but with no say in the rules (if Parliament gets the political upper hand or T.May / her successor bottles it; economic hard slap).

 

All of which scenarios are EU wins-UK loses. Didn't have to be this way, but well, we are where we are.

 

I see that none of the Italian Eurosceptics are making dramatic anti-EU pronouncements, and none of them run electoral platforms threatening their EU membership or their €zone membership: they've learned (and listened to the experts: most of the Italian national debt is held by Italiand households; Italexit and/or drop the € and it's a haircut down to the marrowbone for everyone). Thanks UK :thumbsup:

 

" Cataclysm" Wow another scary word thrown into the argument :hihi: When are the plagues of locusts due ? Please tell so I can protect my vegetable garden :)

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You got decent theft prevention in that garden yet? Forewarned is forearmed :hihi:

 

Its not theft Im worrying about , its the cataclysm :hihi::hihi::hihi: Have you got a little notebook , full of handwritten words and sayings such as Cataclysm , Apocalypse , End of days etc which you refer to when talking about brexit ?

Edited by hackey lad
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