The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[tinfoilhat]

The European Union is losing it's 2nd largest economy. There are going to be bigger implications that stretch beyond the Brexit issue. We are talking geopolitics and the post-war pecking order. The likes of Merkel and Marcon are not going to allow their economies and their future trading relationships with Britain to be determined by servants. These are matters that go way beyond the pay grades of Barnier and Davis. It will be the heads of states collaborating for an acceptable outcome and providing the direction of travel for the rest of the machine.

 

I know there's an appetite on here to frame everything like a boxing match, but behind all the theatrics Brussels do actually get along with Theresa. They know her well and they've worked with her for years whilst she was Home Secretary. In politics this matters.

 

 

 

As I've said before all the technical and structural niceties cease to exist once you're dealing with heads of states.

 

But as far as trade is concerned, it really really doesn't. There won't be bilateral deals with any EU state. It will be with the EU. I really hate the phrase, but "end of".

[hackey lad]

Do you understand how the EU works? At all?

 

I feel compelled to ask, in view of your post.

 

The EU tells us what we can do and what we cannot do

[Guest sibon]

 

I know there's an appetite on here to frame everything like a boxing match, but behind all the theatrics Brussels do actually get along with Theresa. They know her well and they've worked with her for years whilst she was Home Secretary. In politics this matters.

 

 

 

As I've said before all the technical and structural niceties cease to exist once you're dealing with heads of states.

 

The EU relationship with TM won't count for a rat's arse once she's been ousted after the Party Conference. The new leader of the Nasty Party won't count for a rat's arse once Labour have forced a GE and won.

 

Them's your structural niceties.

[Hairyloon]

Do you understand how the EU works? At all?

 

I feel compelled to ask, in view of your post.

The EU tells us what we can do and what we cannot do

 

That's a "no" then.

[I1L2T3]

The EU tells us what we can do and what we cannot do

 

You can't possibly understand how the EU works if you think that.

 

And if you do think that, then you cast your vote on an entirely flawed premise.

 

This is sad to watch.

[Puggie]

The EU relationship with TM won't count for a rat's arse once she's been ousted after the Party Conference.

 

She's committed on delivering Brexit on a 2+3 timetable which is acceptable to her party and Brussels. The powers that be want Brexit delivered before HM gets too old and they've poured cold water on any suggestion of a protracted/unlimited transitionary period.

[Magilla]

She's committed on delivering Brexit on a 2+3 timetable which is acceptable to her party and Brussels.

 

According to the comptroller and auditor general of the National Audit Office, she's not doing so well:-

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/13/brexit-plans-fall-apart-chocolate-orange-auditor-general

[I1L2T3]

She's committed on delivering Brexit on a 2+3 timetable which is acceptable to her party and Brussels. The powers that be want Brexit delivered before HM gets too old and they've poured cold water on any suggestion of a protracted/unlimited transitionary period.

 

Do we need the comical Ali links again?

 

I think so.

[Guest sibon]

She's committed on delivering Brexit on a 2+3 timetable which is acceptable to her party and Brussels. The powers that be want Brexit delivered before HM gets too old and they've poured cold water on any suggestion of a protracted/unlimited transitionary period.

 

If you want to know what is happening within the Tory party, the Telegraph is an excellent place to start.

 

This is their headline article this morning:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/12/theresa-mays-government-could-come-apart-like-chocolate-orange/

 

It seems that they agree with me. No amount of poorly sourced nonsense from you is going to alter that.

[L00b]

The European Union is losing it's 2nd largest economy. There are going to be bigger implications that stretch beyond the Brexit issue. We are talking geopolitics and the post-war pecking order. The likes of Merkel and Marcon are not going to allow their economies and their future trading relationships with Britain to be determined by servants. These are matters that go way beyond the pay grades of Barnier and Davis. It will be the heads of states collaborating for an acceptable outcome and providing the direction of travel for the rest of the machine.

 

I know there's an appetite on here to frame everything like a boxing match, but behind all the theatrics Brussels do actually get along with Theresa. They know her well and they've worked with her for years whilst she was Home Secretary. In politics this matters.

 

As I've said before all the technical and structural niceties cease to exist once you're dealing with heads of states.

So, that's a no answer to my question, then. You don't know how the EU works. Figures.

 

Humoristic rethoric aside, your politics are, clearly, far too insular: you view the EU and its actors through the prism of UK-like politics, character and 'pragmatism' (in quote marks since the UK has shown itself to be anything but pragmatic, of late - save perhaps for Davis' quick capitulations to Barnier, for gaining some time on the tic-toc-tic'ing schedule).

 

That's the first, and very fundamental, error in any negotiation: failing to understand your opponent (how they think, how they work, what motivates them, what are their constraints, <...>).

The EU tells us what we can do and what we cannot do

In international trade matters with the rest of the world outside the EU, to an extent (e.g. it's never stopped the UK trading with the rest of the world, lately to the tune of 56% of its exports). That's been the case for 40 years.

 

Likewise in a few select other trade-related or -impacting areas, and the environment, as wilfully consented by successive, democratically-elected UK governments, in the best national interest of the country (remember that turn of phrase, "national interest": it's the government's new "strong and stable" sound byte, you're going to hear it a lot in the coming days and weeks, as the government tries to shangai and demonise the opposition and its rebels ).

 

And all according to policies framed and supported by the UK (many of them first proposed by the UK), hand-in-hand with the rest of the EU27.

 

For anything else, not in the least, whatsoever. But don't take my word for it, go read the Supreme Court judgement about the government's appeal of the Miller case. Top-to-bottom review of UK constitutional law as it sets out the UK's (Parliamentary-based) sovereignty and its inter-relationship with the EU competences and jurisdiction. As authoritative and up-to-date as it can get.

 

(I'd better keep it short and not mention the UK's rebate and list of opt-outs (-of the 'EU telling us what we can do and what we cannot do'), which list is as long as my arm).

 

Meanwhile-

<...>

 

Which is why I daresaid (sp?) in that same post to Lord Rex, that May's team know the Brexit score and end-game just fine: the UK cannot afford to not have a deal (it simply hasn't got the resources to do/prepare/implement/etc. everything which it needs to for an instant walk-out...and given the pace at which governments, ministries and departments generally move, I qualify exiting the EU in a year and 9 months as an instant walk-out just the same),

 

<...>

as if on cue, in today's news: Government's new customs IT system heading for £34bn 'horror show', watchdog warns.

 

All of this stuff should have been planned properly before Article 50 was triggered. The sheer incompetence on display from the UK government would be astonishing...if the UK government had not already been demonstrating 'strong and stable' levels of incompetence for the best part of 12 months now.

 

You guys are just so f***ed, and so many still aren't seeing it yet, or refusing to see it and take corrective action. All the way to the top.

 

The political and socio-economic backlash from all of this will be something to behold. For shame: it really didn't need to come to this.

Edited July 13, 2017 by L00b