El Cid Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Well, I think I'd dispute "perfectly in line with". So far as I know not 1 single model has accurately made a prediction that has been born out, apart from a general, warmer. So, you know its predicted get warmer, and that has happened. What else do you believe climate change predicts? Sea levels are rising - as predicted, anything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petemcewan Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 (edited) El Cid, Here's a list of "anything else" : climate change, ocean acidification, stratospheric ozone depletion, alteration of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling, freshwater consumption, land use change, biodiversity loss, aerosol and chemical pollution. Stockholm Resilience Centre. Each of these nine, if driven hard enough, could alter the planet to the point where it will turn into a place which will be very difficult to live on. We shouldn't let the lack of 100% accuracy in modelling, induce inertia in addressing the problems. Edited January 12, 2018 by petemcewan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alchresearch Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 (edited) There haveWho do you claim is profiting from them? Newspapers and that awful fake weather companies "Exacta Weather" and "Positive Weather Solutions" they use when they print fake headlines about Britain heading for "8 weeks of snow and ice" etc. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/756e3a7a-74c6-3e6f-8c6a-646ddc9f39d5 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2015/apr/09/daily-express-weather-warning-beware-a-shower-of-extreme-inaccuracy Edited January 12, 2018 by alchresearch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 El Cid, Here's a list of "anything else" : My point was that Cyclone does not know what other things climate change will bring, and whether it has already happened. He just thinks the climate will become warmer, year on year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 So, you know its predicted get warmer, and that has happened. What else do you believe climate change predicts? Sea levels are rising - as predicted, anything else? I think you've entirely missed the point that I was making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin-H Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I think you've entirely missed the point that I was making. What else would you expect to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I'm not in a position to comment on what should be seen, I have no hypothesis, no theory and certainly no models that I claim predict the climate. Speaking about the models though, I would have expectations there, about their ability to correctly predict known changes from the preceding data, without 'fixes' being put into them to force the right answers. If the model can't accurately model the past, then it most definitely can't model the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 I'm not in a position to comment on what should be seen, I have no hypothesis, no theory and certainly no models that I claim predict the climate. So you know very little, except what the science says. ---------- Post added 13-01-2018 at 10:25 ---------- Speaking about the models though, I would have expectations there, about their ability to correctly predict known changes from the preceding data, without 'fixes' being put into them to force the right answers. If the model can't accurately model the past, then it most definitely can't model the future. Climate models that take into account only natural factors, such as solar activity and volcanic eruptions, do not reproduce 20th century temperatures very well. If, however, the models include human emissions, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, they accurately reproduce the 1940 to 1970 dip in temperatures. Some interesting reading, if you can understand it. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11639-climate-myths-the-cooling-after-1940-shows-co2-does-not-cause-warming/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 So you know very little, except what the science says Hilarious. Nobody KNOWS more than the science says. That's kind of the point of science isn't, to advance human understanding. Climate models that take into account only natural factors, such as solar activity and volcanic eruptions, do not reproduce 20th century temperatures very well. If, however, the models include human emissions, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, they accurately reproduce the 1940 to 1970 dip in temperatures. No they don't. That's the problem, they don't accurately reproduce historical climate and they haven't ever accurately made a prediction (yet). They're a work in progress. Some interesting reading, if you can understand it. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11639-climate-myths-the-cooling-after-1940-shows-co2-does-not-cause-warming/ Err, yeah, little ad hom there. Wasn't it you calling a Dr of Engineering a mechanic just the other day. Do you have an inferiority complex regarding your intelligence so you try to belittle other peoples? ---------- Post added 13-01-2018 at 10:50 ---------- Well, I think I'd dispute "perfectly in line with". So far as I know not 1 single model has accurately made a prediction that has been born out, apart from a general, warmer. And this is what you apparently took offence at, but instead of arguing the point, you instead attacked me. Schoolyard level discussion abilities I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 No they don't. That's the problem, they don't accurately reproduce historical climate and they haven't ever accurately made a prediction (yet). They're a work in progress. Which historical climate record don't you understand? ---------- Post added 13-01-2018 at 11:54 ---------- And this is what you apparently took offence at, but instead of arguing the point, you instead attacked me. Schoolyard level discussion abilities I'm afraid. I haven't a clue what you are meaning there. ---------- Post added 13-01-2018 at 16:02 ---------- Wasn't it you calling a Dr of Engineering a mechanic just the other day. I was pointing out that the word 'engineer' has different meanings, within this country and even more in other countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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