Dromedary Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Can you come up with data that shows that the majority of Labour supporters (not constituencies)didn't vote remain? Genuine question... First, can you prove they did as a poll/survey of just 5,455 people is not proof only guesswork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truman Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 First, can you prove they did as a poll/survey of just 5,455 people is not proof only guesswork. Have a look at the other yougov polls and compare them to the actual results. They are quite accurate. They don't just ask 5455 random people..I assume from your reply that you can't answer my question....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lockdoctor Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Have a look at the other yougov polls and compare them to the actual results. They are quite accurate. They don't just ask 5455 random people..I assume from your reply that you can't answer my question....? Didn't the yougov polls conducted just before the 2016 real EU referendum vote, indicate that remain were going to win the democratic 2016 EU referendum vote? The fact is those people, who don't respect the result of the 2016 EU referendum, will clutch at any straws to try to block Brexit happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truman Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 (edited) Didn't the yougov polls conducted just before the 2016 real EU referendum vote, indicate that remain were going to win the democratic 2016 EU referendum vote? The fact is those people, who don't respect the result of the 2016 EU referendum, will clutch at any straws to try to block Brexit happening. And some people are frightened still of there being another one The yougov piece I linked to wasn't a forecasting poll it was more an examination of the makeup of the result... Edited October 12, 2018 by truman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Top Cats Hat Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 First, can you prove they did as a poll/survey of just 5,455 people is not proof only guesswork. A brief lesson in statistics. With a population of 35 million (those who voted in the referendum) and a sample size of 5,500 you will never get a 100% margin of confidence (i.e. your result perfectly reflects the population).To do that you would need to poll everyone. So every poll that isn't taken of everyone in the population, you have a margin of error and that margin of error is directly related to what is called a 'confidence level'. The higher the confidence level, the greater the margin of error. The lower the confidence level, the lower the margin of error. There are statistical tables which relate these values for all the different variables in a survey. If we want a 95% confidence level i.e. that our survey of 5000 from a population of 35 million almost, but not quite reflects the population, then the margin of error for that confidence level is about +/-2 %. So if a properly conducted poll of 5,445 people from a population* of 35 million shows that 67% of Labour supporters voted remain, we can be 95% confident that no less than 65% and no more than 69% voted remain. Both are a large majority. So yes, you may call it guesswork but it is very accurate guesswork and even with the greatest margin of error applied to reduce the number, that still makes it 65% of Labour supporters who voted remain. Does that make sense? (*population in this example does not mean population of the UK but statistical population) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Luthor Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Have a look here https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted/ and make your own conclusions after seeing the facts.. Seriously? Facts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truman Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Seriously? Facts? Provide better ones then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woodview Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 doesn't that depend on just what the terms of the deal are? if one of the consequences of the deal is to make it cheaper to manufacture some things in the other place than the uk wont that have an adverse effect on some? As it stands at this moment in time, Uk based manufacturing is at an advantage compared to before the referendum, due to the pounds lower exchnage rate. I manufacture here in Sheffield. It has made my parts easiere to export, and imports of similar items more expensive. Both the EU and UK are trying for a free trade deal e.g zero tariffs between each other in Europe, the same that has been agreed with Canada and Japan. So in that case manufacturing would be as it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truman Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 As it stands at this moment in time, Uk based manufacturing is at an advantage compared to before the referendum, due to the pounds lower exchnage rate. I manufacture here in Sheffield. It has made my parts easiere to export, and imports of similar items more expensive. Both the EU and UK are trying for a free trade deal e.g zero tariffs between each other in Europe, the same that has been agreed with Canada and Japan. So in that case manufacturing would be as it is now. Won't it be affected by an increase in tarriff free imports...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Luthor Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Provide better ones then.... Polls are not facts. If I could provide a poll that existed of a larger sample, it still wouldn't be fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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