woodview Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 So if a properly conducted poll of 5,445 people from a population* of 35 million shows that 67% of Labour supporters voted remain, we can be 95% confident that no less than 65% and no more than 69% voted remain. Both are a large majority. So yes, you may call it guesswork but it is very accurate guesswork and even with the greatest margin of error applied to reduce the number, that still makes it 65% of Labour supporters who voted remain. Does that make sense? (*population in this example does not mean population of the UK but statistical population) Yet in South Yorkshire, a labour stronghold, 58% voted Leave, and here specifically in Sheffield the result matched the national result at 51%. So a little bit more to it, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Luthor Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 All this talk of respecting the referendum - the referendum didn't really respect the result of the '75 referendum, did it? (67% remain, 23% leave). Or was that undemocratic in some way we weren't aware of? If it wasn't, and it's ok to have multiple referendums on the same question, then how long needs to be left between referendums? 40 years - isn't that a bit anti-democratic? Or is it the case that referendums and plebiscites are a terrible way to make decisions? The 1975 referendum was regarding membership of the economic union. The EU now is unrecognisable compared with then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woodview Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Won't it be affected by an increase in tarriff free imports...? Well, at the moment, the trade deal being discussed is with the EU, who we are obviously already on tariff free trading with already. So that element would have no change. If we did a deal with a country where tariffs do exist now, then that would be the case, yes. But, we have to decide if those deals are worthwhile. At the moment we get new deals coming along making imports cheaper, like the one announced the other week with Japan, who are going on to tariff free trade for goods and agricultural products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Litotes Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Any Brexit deal should respect the referendum result and the wishes of the democratic people, who voted to leave the EU. The most likely outcome is the whole of the UK will stay in the customs union for at least a year after the UK leave the EU. I am not working against anyone, but unlike you, I respect the democratic referendum result. And any democratic country should respect the ability of the electorate to change their minds and to have the option to show that in another referendum. But your version of democracy won't allow that will it? ---------- Post added 12-10-2018 at 16:55 ---------- The 1975 referendum was regarding membership of the economic union. The EU now is unrecognisable compared with then. And the 2016 referendum was fought on lines which are lines which are unrecognisable compared to now. Your argument is that times change and we should be able to change our minds - the majority of the UK now want to change their minds but you won't let them - how democratic is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinfoilhat Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 (edited) Well, at the moment, the trade deal being discussed is with the EU, who we are obviously already on tariff free trading with already. So that element would have no change. If we did a deal with a country where tariffs do exist now, then that would be the case, yes. But, we have to decide if those deals are worthwhile. At the moment we get new deals coming along making imports cheaper, like the one announced the other week with Japan, who are going on to tariff free trade for goods and agricultural products. It's very much a double edged sword - albeit one we are determined to ram into our own chest. We leave the eu - we won't lose trade but it becomes harder and slower, get free trade deals with the rest of the world and we that makes certain industries really vulnerable. Remind me of an upside someone. Here's what we have to look forward to with a US trade deal by the way. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Food_Defect_Action_Levels Mmmmmmm. Edited October 12, 2018 by tinfoilhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woodview Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 It's very much a double edged sword - albeit one we are determined to ram into our own chest. We leave the eu - we won't lose trade but it becomes harder and slower, get free trade deals with the rest of the world and we that makes certain industries really vulnerable. Remind me of an upside someone. Here's what we have to look forward to with a US trade deal by the way. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Food_Defect_Action_Levels Mmmmmmm. The idea is to get a trade deal with the eu, then it doesn't get harder or slower. Other deals *may* be done later. Just as a side note. I import some electrical equipment from china, which attracts import tarrifs. It is just as simple as when other stuff arrives from the eu. There's much hyperbole spoken about the 'diificulties' to suit agendas. Upside is we will be in a free trade area, the same as canada and japan have just joined, without being governed by the eu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penistone999 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 And the 2016 referendum was fought on lines which are lines which are unrecognisable compared to now. Your argument is that times change and we should be able to change our minds - the majority of the UK now want to change their minds but you won't let them - how democratic is that? No it wasnt. In fact , now we know just how tangled up with the EU we are , it re-enforces my view we were right to vote to Leave. How we ended up so tied up and bound to other countries beggars belief. We need to make sure we leave totally . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinfoilhat Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 The idea is to get a trade deal with the eu, then it doesn't get harder or slower. Other deals *may* be done later. Just as a side note. I import some electrical equipment from china, which attracts import tarrifs. It is just as simple as when other stuff arrives from the eu. There's much hyperbole spoken about the 'diificulties' to suit agendas. Upside is we will be in a free trade area, the same as canada and japan have just joined, without being governed by the eu. I don't know what you're importing but when I import stuff from India it can take 3 or 4 days ages to get through customs at their end and a day or so at this end, then I've got UPS on my doorstep with his hand out for VAT and duty. Stuff from Poland is as easy to get as from Peterborough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melthebell Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 How we ended up so tied up and bound to other countries beggars belief. our own politicians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dromedary Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Have a look at the other yougov polls and compare them to the actual results. They are quite accurate. They don't just ask 5455 random people..I assume from your reply that you can't answer my question....? Then you have assumed wrong as the old saying goes "you cant prove a negative" so there is nothing to answer. But again I ask can you first prove that the data in this case is correct? Notice how the many Labour heartlands and regions voted overwhelmingly to leave with London, Scotland and Northern Ireland being the only areas that voted to Remain. Now that is based on actual statistics and not polls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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