apelike Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 (edited) But as for Labour supporters it’s 30%-ish who voted leave If 61% of Labour constituencies voted leave, mostly in the Labour heartlands, then how do you work out that it was only 30%-ish of Labour supporters. The only reliable figures you can gleam data from are from Labour constituencies as there is no data about the numbers of Labour supporters who voted or how. Edited October 30, 2018 by apelike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_bloke Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 If 61% of Labour constituencies voted leave, mostly in the Labour heartlands, then how do you work out that it was only 30%-ish of Labour supporters. The only reliable figures you can gleam data from are from Labour constituencies as there is no data about the numbers of Labour supporters who voted or how. See post #4256, ignored by the usual suspects in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Thanks for the stimulating post, CaptainSwing. Regrettably I just caught up with Nokes' performance before the Home Affairs committee today, so I'd better leave any more posting until tomorrow after I've calmed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 If 61% of Labour constituencies voted leave, mostly in the Labour heartlands, then how do you work out that it was only 30%-ish of Labour supporters. The only reliable figures you can gleam data from are from Labour constituencies as there is no data about the numbers of Labour supporters who voted or how. Polls have indicated that Labour supporters voted 65-70% remain It’s not hard to work out. Some constituencies are marginal with MPs getting elected with quite small majorities. Stoke Central for example the Labour MP gained 37% of the vote. The combined Tory/UKIP vote nudged 50%. UKIP voters not surprisingly are close to 100% leave. Tory 60%+, Labour + Lib Dem’s 30%. That 60% leave vote is not hard to get to in those circumstances, and it’s an utter fallacy to claim that a high leave vote in a Labour constituency equals a strong Labour vote to leave. It’s unlikely to be true. But you seem to be claiming that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Top Cats Hat Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 then how do you work out that it was only 30%-ish of Labour supporters. You don't have to work it out, you just ask them. A number of polling organisations in 2016 asked ''What party do you support? How did you vote in the referendum?" 30%-34% of Labour supporters told pollsters that they voted leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 It's a shame leavers can't agree with how best to leave. That is the main issue, MPs will vote down any leave bill put before parliament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phanerothyme Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Due to circumstances too boring to explain, I am now managing a tiny mail order company, half of our customers are in the EU... Bugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apelike Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Polls have indicated that Labour supporters voted 65-70% remain Ah, so its just another poll guesstimate again without any proof the figures are correct. Nice try.. .. and it’s an utter fallacy to claim that a high leave vote in a Labour constituency equals a strong Labour vote to leave. It’s unlikely to be true. But you seem to be claiming that. I'm not claiming that at all, the figures and regional data point to it being true whereas "unlikely to be true" does not mean its not true and sums up polls nicely. ---------- Post added 31-10-2018 at 01:15 ---------- You don't have to work it out, you just ask them. Now if they had asked all of them then I might be inclined to believe it but as its just a poll I am very suspect. BTW I was asked to participate in a poll but told them I always lie when doing polls so declined. Their answer back was "we take that into account!" Made me laugh for ages.. Now this I do believe thanks to the_bloke: https://fullfact.org/europe/did-majority-conservative-and-labour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/ ---------- Post added 31-10-2018 at 01:18 ---------- That is the main issue, MPs will vote down any leave bill put before parliament. I doubt it, as they know all they will be doing is kicking the can further down the road thus bringing on a hard brexit, which they will then get the blame for. Parliament have dug a hole on this one and will soon be buried in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 It’s not a guesstimate Apelike. This is not a Brexit led by the left or for the left in any way, shape or form. It simply isn’t Everything leading Brexiters want smashes apart what most of what those on the left stand for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magilla Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 S&P predicts a long Brexit recession on no-deal: http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-talks-resume-amid-increasing-risk-of-no-deal-recession-eu-citizens-2018-10 Standard & Poor’s, one of the world's leading financial services companies, said on Tuesday that a no deal Brexit would trigger a lengthy recession in the UK, that would shrink the UK economy by 1.2% in 2019 and a further 1.5% in 2020. "Most of the economic loss of about 5.5 % (of) GDP over three years compared to our base case would likely be permanent," S&P said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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