The Consequences of Brexit [part 5] Read 1st post before posting

[Magilla]

50 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

38% of the electorate which is 25% of the population voted to leave. That is not and never will be a majority of the people whichever way you look at it. At the end of the day the Brextremists know this and that is why they are so desperately trying to hang on to their fake victory as they see it slipping away from them! 

 

Totally.

 

The vast majority who didn't explicitely vote for this (even if they might have voted leave but didn't vote at all in the end) will rightfully be expecting answers if the project goes pear shaped, as it does with every passing day.

 

I wouldn't fancy being the subject of their ire, that's for sure

 

There will be significant political and social fallout if jobs and propserity are lost.

 

No-deal would be proof positive to anyone who cares to look that MP's have totally failed in their primary duty, which is to protect the national interest.

 

The daftest part of the whole thing is that in the end, even in the "best case" scenarios we have before us, all it'll really succeed in doing is removing a bunch of rights from UK citizens.

 

Edited December 1, 2018 by Magilla

[apelike]

55 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Everybody's views count,  not just those who chose whether or not to vote over two and a half years ago.

In the democracy we have, Parliament decide on who can and cannot vote and for very obvious reasons that cannot include all of the resident population and in this referendum even more so. Just because someone on a blog that you have read states the same as you it still does not make it a correct statement no matter how many times you come on here  and state it as its a classic case from the book "Straight and Crooked Thinking." 

 

55 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

The majority of people in the UK  do not wish to leave the EU either now or in June 2016.

There is no way you could know that except from polls which also did not include everybody so its a false statement. All you can say with any reliability is that polls taken may indicate that the majority of people polled dont wish to leave.

Edited December 1, 2018 by apelike

[Litotes]

5 hours ago, apelike said:

Is it? If IRC you had no say or vote in the matter and if that is the case then you had to rely on others to make the democratic choice you wanted.

Sorry, your point?

 

I said I disagree with the implication that what was said was the truth - it isn't - it is one person's interpretation - which like anyone else's is open to being wrong.

 

This is a fundamental flaw that is seen in many people who have standpoints which have no evidence behind them - they often start with "I am sure I speak for every sane person", or "It is the truth" or "I am sure  no-one can disagree". These are all just lame unsubstantiated openings to (often) fallacious arguments in which they try to get the unknowledgable to side with them because they suggest it is true.

4 hours ago, apelike said:

There is no way you could know that except from polls which also did not include everybody so its a false statement. All you can say with any reliability is that polls taken may indicate that the majority of people polled dont wish to leave.

Wrong - the majority of people did not vote to leave the EU - the majority of people who voted did, but that was not the majority of people in the UK. Another example of a lack of knowledge being presented as truth!

[apelike]

42 minutes ago, Litotes said:

Sorry, your point?

You were not included in that democratic voting decision so are very bitter about it as it was others that made the decision for you

 

42 minutes ago, Litotes said:

Wrong - the majority of people did not vote to leave the EU - the majority of people who voted did, but that was not the majority of people in the UK. Another example of a lack of knowledge being presented as truth!

Please read back to my reply of 6647 as I was replying to TopCatsHat and this:

 

Quote: "The majority of people in the UK  do not wish to leave the EU either now or in June 2016",  a statement which I accept as being correct.

 

The lack of knowledge is from you in not understanding how our democracy works or understanding that the majority of the people cannot be involved only those that qualify. If you can understand it then what I wrote was true and I also explained very clearly why. 

Edited December 1, 2018 by apelike

[Top Cats Hat]

5 hours ago, apelike said:

There is no way you could know that except from polls which also did not include everybody so its a false statement. All you can say with any reliability is that polls taken may indicate that the majority of people polled dont wish to leave.

Another poster who doesn't understand statistics.

 

A poll doesn't say 'this result definitely reflects with  100% certainty x,y and z. It will only do that if everyone is polled. The less people polled, the greater margin of error.

 

Yes, polls have errors, but what Brexiteers shouldn't ignore is the fact that every sizeable poll in the past two years has not only shown a majority in favour of remaining in the EU but that majority is increasing month on month.

 

The biggest poll,  conducted last month by  Survation for Channel Four News showed 54% in favour of remaining in the EU with 46% supporting leaving. This was a poll of 20,000 people and as such has a very small margin of error (possibly less than 0.5%) 

 

What this means is that we can be over 95% certain that the remain vote is somewhere between 53.5% and 54.5% . Even if this margin of error was out by a factor of 10,  that would still leave us with a remain vote of somewhere between 51.3% and 56.7%.

 

Even in this post-Brexit, post-Trump world of fake news and dog whistle political opinions, anyone who claims that the majority of people of voting age do not support remaining in the EU are living in a desperate cloud cuckoo land.

[apelike]

15 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Another poster who doesn't understand statistics.

You mean that a poll cannot by its very nature include "the majority of people" as it just a poll. As said it is an indication that the majority of those polled do not want to leave, it cant mean anything else as the majority were never asked nor could be as its just a poll. Extrapolate what you want from the poll but it certainly is not 100% reliable as it includes a margin of error, and many times despite polls doing that they have proved wrong  in the past so it is a fallible process.  Our democracy however does not rely on polls but the electorate voting on a choice and that choice was to leave.  Another one who does not understand how our democracy works.. sigh!

Edited December 1, 2018 by apelike

[phil752]

Why not realise that there is bigger powers at work, we are never going to get out of the corrupted EU. For one they need our money do they not?

Edited December 1, 2018 by phil752

[Top Cats Hat]

1 hour ago, apelike said:

You mean that a poll cannot by its very nature include "the majority of people" as it just a poll. As said it is an indication that the majority of those polled do not want to leave, it cant mean anything else as the majority were never asked nor could be as its just a poll. Extrapolate what you want from the poll but it certainly is not 100% reliable as it includes a margin of error, and many times despite polls doing that they have proved wrong  in the past so it is a fallible process.  Our democracy however does not rely on polls but the electorate voting on a choice and that choice was to leave.  Another one who does not understand how our democracy works.. sigh!

A poll is certainly not reliable, but when ALL of them consistently show the same thing the chances of them being wrong are pretty remote. And yes, polls have been wrong but that is usually if they have either been carried out poorly or the prediction is too close to call and even then the actual result is still within the stated margin of error.

 

Populists often cite the examples of the 2015 UK election, the 2016 EU referendum and Trump's election as 'polls that got it wrong. In all three cases the predictions were within a couple of percentage points either way and the results were within the published margins of error.

 

I know exactly how our democracy works. If Cameron had passed legislation which said that if a majority of those voting, voted to leave then the UK was legally obliged to trigger Article 50 then that is what would have happened. But he didn't. He passed legislation which allowed a referendum on the matter that would serve only as an advisory poll. Nothing more, nothing less. That advisory poll showed that neither side in the argument could convince even 40% of the electorate to support them. The 'advice' taken from that should have been  that there was no real desire for change. It was only an act of sheer political cowardice  which took that inconclusive result and turned it into policy. 

 

That  goes for Labour as well as the Conservatives.

[phil752]

On 11/27/2018 at 8:07 AM, RJRB said:

Playing the dumb card !

Thanks for your reasoned contribution,which is a bit rich,considering your opening line above.

well you did, plain and simple, you just played the dumb card did you not?

On 11/27/2018 at 6:43 AM, Magilla said:

Maybe you just didn't understand it ?

you think so, what did you take from the post?

Edited December 1, 2018 by phil752

[RJRB]

3 hours ago, phil752 said:

well you did, plain and simple, you just played the dumb card did you not?

you think so, what did you take from the post?

Thanks again for your considered reply,which appears to have taken several days to compose.

Not really worth the effort is it?