The Consequences of Brexit [part 5] Read 1st post before posting

[Top Cats Hat]

40 minutes ago, geared said:

She should secure some small concession from the EU and then chuck the brexit deal straight through parliament, capitalise on her momentum after beating the hard line Torys.

The problem is that a small concession by satisfy some Tory MPs but the DUP want nothing less than the removal of the Northern Ireland backstop which is not going to happen.

 

She may win the leadership vote but will then be unable to continue running a govenment without the DUP support.

 

I agree though that the Brextremists have timed this appalingly badly and if May survives, they will have nothing left to threaten her with.

[I1L2T3]

3 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

The problem is that a small concession by satisfy some Tory MPs but the DUP want nothing less than the removal of the Northern Ireland backstop which is not going to happen.

 

She may win the leadership vote but will then be unable to continue running a govenment without the DUP support.

 

I agree though that the Brextremists have timed this appalingly badly and if May survives, they will have nothing left to threaten her with.

She will be very much under threat. They can rebel against and thwart every thing she tries to do.

[SnailyBoy]

He ain't wrong

 

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/must-watch-take-on-the-tories-theresa-may/

[Padders]

1 hour ago, SnailyBoy said:

It's the will of the democratic people, oh, hang on a sec.

  Love that one SB.

[geared]

14 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

She will be very much under threat. They can rebel against and thwart every thing she tries to do.

Once she defeats the Brexit hardline party members in the vote she can then whip for support of the deal, anyone still thinking of piddling around could get the whip withdrawn.

 

That is of course assuming the rest of the party are broadly in support of the (revised) deal, because it was clear the vast majority were against it and you'll never get something passed in that way.

Edited December 12, 2018 by geared

[Top Cats Hat]

27 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

She will be very much under threat. They can rebel against and thwart every thing she tries to do.

Without the support of the DUP there is very little she can do anyway.

[I1L2T3]

19 minutes ago, geared said:

Once she defeats the Brexit hardline party members in the vote she can then whip for support of the deal, anyone still thinking of piddling around could get the whip withdrawn.

 

That is of course assuming the rest of the party are broadly in support of the (revised) deal, because it was clear the vast majority were against it and you'll never get something passed in that way.

They won’t be defeated. Very far from it.

 

Theyll never vote through her deal, and nor should they. It puts the U.K. in exactly the place they told us we were in already, but actually were not.

[bendix]

1 minute ago, I1L2T3 said:

They won’t be defeated. Very far from it.

 

Theyll never vote through her deal, and nor should they. It puts the U.K. in exactly the place they told us we were in already, but actually were not.

Sorry, but they will be defeated.  it effectively neutralises their only weapon: the threat of a change of leadership.

 

Of course they will continue to oppose the deal, but their defeat will take the spectre of No Deal withdrawal off the table for good, and their protests will be mere posturing.  This leaves May free to do what she has wanted to do all along: present a no-hope of success Deal to parliament to inevitable defeat, followed by an extension of Article 50 and a People's Vote.    It was always going to end this way.

 

It might force to her resign eventually, but not until she has fulfilled her sense of duty and seen it through.

 

[I1L2T3]

56 minutes ago, bendix said:

Sorry, but they will be defeated.  it effectively neutralises their only weapon: the threat of a change of leadership.

 

Of course they will continue to oppose the deal, but their defeat will take the spectre of No Deal withdrawal off the table for good, and their protests will be mere posturing.  This leaves May free to do what she has wanted to do all along: present a no-hope of success Deal to parliament to inevitable defeat, followed by an extension of Article 50 and a People's Vote.    It was always going to end this way.

 

It might force to her resign eventually, but not until she has fulfilled her sense of duty and seen it through.

 

They won’t go away. Never in a million.

 

No Tory leader has ever beaten them, and now they are the most powerful they’ve ever been. 

 

Without them and the DUP May can only rely on 260 MPs. She needs 318.

 

They will cause her all manner of problems, and if May’s deal is approved it is only the start for the ERG. Even with an approved deal they will try and collapse it and the transition. They will fight tooth and nail against any transition extension.

 

They will not stop. Guaranteed

[bendix]

6 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

They won’t go away. Never in a million.

 

No Tory leader has ever beaten them, and now they are the most powerful they’ve ever been. 

 

Without them and the DUP May can only rely on 260 MPs. She needs 318.

 

They will cause her all manner of problems, and if May’s deal is approved it is only the start for the ERG. Even with an approved deal they will try and collapse it and the transition. They will fight tooth and nail against any transition extension.

 

They will not stop. Guaranteed

Perhaps, but there is a difference between being noisy and being successful.    They have jumped the gun twice now, and are playing an absolutely appalling strategic game, which I suppose is inevitable given the lack of leadership they have.  They are just a small noisy minority mob.  Let the wail and moan; the outcome of all this is pretty much nailed on imho.